Race profile
Maryland
The question
Maryland: a safe seat for the Democrats?
Current forecast
Democrat
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 31.9
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this race stacks up
| Democrat | Republican | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|
| HereMaryland | 65.8% | 33.8% | 0.4% |
| National averageUnited States | 49.1% +16.6 | 48.2% −14.3 | 2.7% −2.3 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 36 state races (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
District polls
Polls in this district
4 polls
| Pollster | Field dates | Sample | Pop. | Topline | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zenith Research Blended Public Affairs | Perry Jacobson | Jul 27 – Aug 3 | 800 | LV | link | |
| Gonzales Research | Dec 21 – Jan 6 | 808 | LV | link | |
| University Of Maryland Baltimore County | 21–Oct 25 | 757 | RV | link | |
| Opinionworks Baltimore Banner | Robert W. Deutsch Foundation | 7–Oct 10 | 928 | RV | link |
District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.
Editorial read
Maryland elected a governor with the Democrats at its previous election, by 32 points. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 66% vote share, against 34% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting governor
Wes Moore
Party Democrat
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
- Democrat Incumbent
Wes Moore
- Other Challenger
Andy Ellis
- Other Challenger
Cathy White
-
Republican Challenger Dan Cox
Previous election · 2022
Elsewhere on the map
Other races to watch
Tone only — open a race to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_governor_2026