Race profile

Tennessee

Governor race — TN

The question

Tennessee: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
21.1
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 57.0%

    Marsha Blackburn

  • Democrat 36.0%

    Jerri Green

  • Other 7.0%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. OhioDemocrat56 %3.2 pt margin
  2. FloridaRepublican55 %3.2 pt margin
  3. NevadaDemocrat61 %3.5 pt margin

In context

How this race stacks up

Republican Democrat Other
HereTennessee 57.0%36.0%7.0%
National averageUnited States 48.2% +8.9 49.1% −13.2 2.7% +4.3

Nationwide averages computed across the 36 state races (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

District polls

Polls in this district

4 polls

Pollster Field dates Sample Pop. Topline Source
Targoz Market Research Beacon Center 15–Aug 26 601 LV
Republican 55 Democrat 34
link
Targoz Market Research Beacon Center 20–Apr 27 1,157 RV
Republican 51 Democrat 27
link
Quantus Insights 5–Aug 7 600 RV
Republican 49 Democrat 28
link
Targoz Market Research Beacon Center Jul 27 – Aug 1 1,167 RV
Republican 51 Democrat 32
link

District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.

Editorial read

Tennessee elected a governor with the Republicans at its previous election, by 32 points. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 57% vote share, against 36% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting governor

Bill Lee

Party Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Open seat

    Jerri Green

  • Other Open seat

    Charles Van Morgan

  • Other Open seat

    David Hatley

  • Other Open seat

    Dean Brewer

  • Other Open seat

    Eddie Lee Murphy

  • Other Open seat

    Karl Smithson

  • Other Open seat

    L. Webb Taylor

  • Other Open seat

    Lauren Pinkston

  • Other Open seat

    Misam Abidi

  • Other Open seat

    Ray Brown

  • Other Open seat

    Robert Vick

  • Other Open seat

    Santiago Asconape

  • Other Open seat

    Taylor Hafley

  • Other Open seat

    Wendell Jackson

  • Republican Open seat

    Marsha Blackburn

Previous election · 2022

Won by
Republican
Margin
32.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-10.9 pts

Elsewhere on the map

Other races to watch

Tone only — open a race to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_governor_2026