Tennessee

Governor’s race · Tennessee

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives the Republicans a 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 16.7 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 5%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Republican 51.9%

Marsha Blackburn
Democrat 35.3%

Jerri Green
Other 12.7%

Thin vertical mark: 2022 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 95% chance (99% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Republican	99%
Orbit	Republican	95%
50/50 blend	Republican	97%

Figures as of November 2, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Republican	Democrat	Other
Tennessee	51.9%	35.3%	12.7%
National averageUnited States	46.4%+5.5	50.0%−14.7	3.6%+9.2

Simple average of the 36 state races, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

6 polls

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source
Spry Strategies	10–Oct 16, 2026	635	likely voters	Republican 44 Democrat 32 Independent and others 13	See the poll
Targetsmart The Progress Fund PAC	9–Sep 12, 2026	600	likely voters	Republican 45 Democrat 36 Independent and others 12	See the poll
Targoz Market Research Beacon Center	15–Aug 26, 2026	601	likely voters	Republican 55 Democrat 34 Independent and others 7	See the poll
Targoz Market Research Beacon Center	20–Apr 27, 2026	1,157	registered voters	Republican 51 Democrat 27	See the poll
Quantus Insights	5–Aug 7, 2025	600	registered voters	Republican 49 Democrat 28	See the poll
Targoz Market Research Beacon Center	Jul 27, 2025 – Aug 1, 2025	1,167	registered voters	Republican 51 Democrat 32	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Current governor

Bill Lee · Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Democrat Open seat

Jerri Green
source
Other Open seat

Charles Van Morgan
source
Other Open seat

David Hatley
source
Other Open seat

Dean Brewer
source
Other Open seat

Eddie Lee Murphy
source
Other Open seat

Karl Smithson
source
Other Open seat

L. Webb Taylor
source
Other Open seat

Lauren Pinkston
source
Other Open seat

Misam Abidi
source
Other Open seat

Ray Brown
source
Other Open seat

Robert Vick
source
Other Open seat

Santiago Asconape
source
Other Open seat

Taylor Hafley
source
Other Open seat

Wendell Jackson
source
Republican Open seat

Marsha Blackburn
source

Previous election (2022)

The Republicans won by 32.0 points.

Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 16.7 points.

Other races to watch

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Texas Republican, toss-up
Georgia Democrat, toss-up
Ohio Democrat, toss-up
Kansas Republican, toss-up
Nevada Democrat, toss-up
Florida Republican, toss-up

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: November 2, 2026