Race profile
Connecticut
The question
Connecticut: a safe seat for the Democrats?
Current forecast
Democrat
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 17.2
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this race stacks up
| Democrat | Republican | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|
| HereConnecticut | 58.4% | 41.2% | 0.4% |
| National averageUnited States | 49.1% +9.3 | 48.2% −7.0 | 2.7% −2.3 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 36 state races (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
District polls
Polls in this district
5 polls
| Pollster | Field dates | Sample | Pop. | Topline | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greatblue Research Connecticut Insider | Sacred Heart University Institute for Public Policy and Civic Engagement | 1–Sep 8 | 1,000 | RV | link | |
| University Of New Hampshire | 20–Aug 24 | 803 | LV | link | |
| Greatblue Research Connecticut Insider | Sacred Heart University Institute for Public Policy and Civic Engagement | WFSB | 21–Jul 26 | — | LV | link | |
| University Of New Hampshire | 18–Jun 23 | 821 | LV | link | |
| Onmessage Inc. | 11–Aug 14 | 600 | LV | link |
District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.
Editorial read
Connecticut elected a governor with the Democrats at its previous election, by 13 points. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 58% vote share, against 41% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting governor
Ned Lamont
Party Democrat
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
- Democrat Incumbent
Ned Lamont
-
Republican Challenger Ryan Fazio
Previous election · 2022
Elsewhere on the map
Other races to watch
Tone only — open a race to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_governor_2026