Connecticut

Governor’s race · Connecticut

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives the Democrats a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 19.7 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 1%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Democrat 59.7%

Ned Lamont, incumbent
Republican 39.9%

Ryan Fazio

Thin vertical mark: 2022 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Democrat, with a 95% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Democrat	> 99%
Orbit	Democrat	95%
50/50 blend	Democrat	97%

Figures as of November 2, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Democrat	Republican	Other
Connecticut	59.7%	39.9%	0.4%
National averageUnited States	50.0%+9.7	46.4%−6.5	3.6%−3.2

Simple average of the 36 state races, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

13 polls

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source
University Of New Hampshire	27–Oct 31, 2026	811	likely voters	Democrat 54 Republican 41	See the poll
Quinnipiac University	8–Oct 12, 2026	1,225	likely voters	Democrat 58 Republican 38	See the poll
Emerson College Nexstar	10–Oct 12, 2026	800	likely voters	Democrat 51 Republican 38	See the poll
Greatblue Research Connecticut Insider \| Sacred Heart University Institute for Public Policy and Civic Engagement \| WFSB	6–Oct 12, 2026	—	likely voters	Democrat 62 Republican 34	See the poll
Yougov Wesleyan SurveyLab CT	Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 7, 2026	—	likely voters	Democrat 53 Republican 32	See the poll
University Of New Hampshire	17–Sep 21, 2026	540	likely voters	Democrat 55 Republican 38	See the poll
Co/Efficient	16–Sep 17, 2026	979	likely voters	Democrat 48 Republican 41	See the poll
Quinnipiac University	8–Sep 14, 2026	1,288	likely voters	Democrat 55 Republican 38	See the poll
Greatblue Research Connecticut Insider \| Sacred Heart University Institute for Public Policy and Civic Engagement	1–Sep 8, 2026	1,000	registered voters	Democrat 52 Republican 37	See the poll
University Of New Hampshire	20–Aug 24, 2026	803	likely voters	Democrat 52 Republican 37	See the poll
Greatblue Research Connecticut Insider \| Sacred Heart University Institute for Public Policy and Civic Engagement \| WFSB	21–Jul 26, 2026	—	likely voters	Democrat 50 Republican 30	See the poll
University Of New Hampshire	18–Jun 23, 2026	821	likely voters	Democrat 49 Republican 36	See the poll
Onmessage Inc.	11–Aug 14, 2025	600	likely voters	Democrat 50 Republican 42	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Current governor

Ned Lamont · Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Democrat Incumbent

Ned Lamont
source
Republican Challenger

Ryan Fazio
source

Previous election (2022)

The Democrats won by 12.9 points.

Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 19.7 points.

Other races to watch

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Texas Republican, toss-up
Georgia Democrat, toss-up
Ohio Democrat, toss-up
Kansas Republican, toss-up
Nevada Democrat, toss-up
Florida Republican, toss-up

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: November 2, 2026