Race profile
Maine
The question
Maine: a safe seat for the Democrats?
Current forecast
Democrat
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 11.7
- P(close race)
- 5%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this race stacks up
| Democrat | Republican | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|
| HereMaine | 54.7% | 43.0% | 2.3% |
| National averageUnited States | 49.1% +5.6 | 48.2% −5.2 | 2.7% −0.4 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 36 state races (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
District polls
Polls in this district
6 polls
| Pollster | Field dates | Sample | Pop. | Topline | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yougov | 2–Sep 8 | 1,334 | LV | link | |
| Cnn Ssrs | Aug 31 – Sep 6 | 880 | LV | link | |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research Fox News | 6–Aug 10 | 1,000 | RV | link | |
| University Of New Hampshire | 15–Jul 20 | 1,150 | LV | link | |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research Fox News | 23–Jun 27 | 1,003 | RV | link | |
| The New York Times/Siena University Portland Press Herald | 19–Jun 26 | 608 | LV | link |
District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.
Editorial read
Maine elected a governor with the Democrats at its previous election, by 13 points. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 55% vote share, against 43% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting governor
Janet Mills
Party Democrat
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
- Democrat Open seat
Hannah Pingree
- Other Open seat
Rick Bennett
-
Republican Open seat Robert B. Charles
Previous election · 2022
Elsewhere on the map
Other races to watch
Tone only — open a race to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_governor_2026