Maine

Governor’s race · Maine

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives the Democrats a 98% chance of winning, with an average lead of 12.2 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 9%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Democrat 52.9%

Hannah Pingree
Republican 40.8%

Robert B. Charles
Other 6.3%

Rick Bennett Independent

Thin vertical mark: 2022 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Democrat, with a 87% chance (98% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Democrat	98%
Orbit	Democrat	87%
50/50 blend	Democrat	92%

Figures as of November 2, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Democrat	Republican	Other
Maine	52.9%	40.8%	6.3%
National averageUnited States	50.0%+2.9	46.4%−5.6	3.6%+2.7

Simple average of the 36 state races, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

23 polls

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source
The New York Times/Siena University	Oct 27, 2026 – Nov 1, 2026	714	likely voters	Democrat 49 Republican 37 Independent and others 8	See the poll
University Of New Hampshire	27–Oct 31, 2026	1,648	likely voters	Democrat 51 Republican 40 Independent and others 7	See the poll
Yougov	26–Oct 29, 2026	1,500	likely voters	Democrat 53 Republican 45	See the poll
Data For Progress	23–Oct 27, 2026	652	likely voters	Democrat 49 Republican 37 Independent and others 7	See the poll
Cnn Ssrs	20–Oct 26, 2026	783	likely voters	Democrat 53 Republican 39	See the poll
Marist University	22–Oct 25, 2026	1,449	registered voters	Democrat 51 Republican 40 Independent and others 7	See the poll
Echelon Insights NetChoice	16–Oct 23, 2026	413	likely voters	Democrat 51 Republican 38 Independent and others 7	See the poll
Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research Fox News	16–Oct 20, 2026	1,689	registered voters	Democrat 49 Republican 39 Independent and others 9	See the poll
Suffolk University	8–Oct 11, 2026	500	likely voters	Democrat 49 Republican 38 Independent and others 8	See the poll
The Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School Of Policy And Government	Sep 30, 2026 – Oct 5, 2026	800	likely voters	Democrat 49 Republican 36 Independent and others 11	See the poll
Marist University	1–Oct 4, 2026	1,505	registered voters	Democrat 52 Republican 40 Independent and others 6	See the poll
Yougov CBS News	Sep 23, 2026 – Oct 1, 2026	1,133	likely voters	Democrat 56 Republican 44	See the poll
Co/Efficient	28–Sep 30, 2026	1,240	likely voters	Democrat 47 Republican 38 Independent and others 6	See the poll
The New York Times/Siena University	15–Sep 22, 2026	619	likely voters	Democrat 47 Republican 34 Independent and others 8	See the poll
Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research AARP	20–Sep 22, 2026	982	likely voters	Democrat 52 Republican 39 Independent and others 6	See the poll
University Of New Hampshire	17–Sep 21, 2026	1,312	likely voters	Democrat 48 Republican 40 Independent and others 5	See the poll
University Of Massachusetts Lowell Center For Public Opinion/Yougov	Aug 28, 2026 – Sep 14, 2026	650	likely voters	Democrat 49 Republican 38	See the poll
Yougov	2–Sep 8, 2026	1,334	likely voters	Democrat 44 Republican 35 Independent and others 3	See the poll
Cnn Ssrs	Aug 31, 2026 – Sep 6, 2026	880	likely voters	Democrat 52 Republican 39	See the poll
Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research Fox News	6–Aug 10, 2026	1,000	registered voters	Democrat 49 Republican 38 Independent and others 9	See the poll
University Of New Hampshire	15–Jul 20, 2026	1,150	likely voters	Democrat 49 Republican 35 Independent and others 6	See the poll
Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research Fox News	23–Jun 27, 2026	1,003	registered voters	Democrat 53 Republican 42	See the poll
The New York Times/Siena University Portland Press Herald	19–Jun 26, 2026	608	likely voters	Democrat 50 Republican 36 Independent and others 8	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Current governor

Janet Mills · Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Democrat Open seat

Hannah Pingree
source
Other Open seat

Rick Bennett
source
Republican Open seat

Robert B. Charles
source

Previous election (2022)

The Democrats won by 13.3 points.

Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 12.2 points.

Other races to watch

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Texas Republican, toss-up
Georgia Democrat, toss-up
Ohio Democrat, toss-up
Kansas Republican, toss-up
Nevada Democrat, toss-up
Florida Republican, toss-up

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: November 2, 2026