Arizona

Governor’s race · Arizona

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives the Democrats a 93% chance of winning, with an average lead of 8.8 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 26%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Democrat 53.4%

Katie Hobbs, incumbent
Republican 45.0%

Andy Biggs
Other 1.6%

Thin vertical mark: 2022 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Democrat, with a 77% chance (93% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Democrat	93%
Orbit	Democrat	77%
50/50 blend	Democrat	85%

Figures as of November 2, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Democrat	Republican	Other
Arizona	53.4%	45.0%	1.6%
National averageUnited States	50.0%+3.4	46.4%−1.4	3.6%−2.0

Simple average of the 36 state races, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

29 polls

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source
Grayhouse	28–Oct 29, 2026	500	likely voters	Democrat 50 Republican 45	See the poll
Noble Predictive Insights	26–Oct 28, 2026	511	likely voters	Democrat 51 Republican 45	See the poll
Kreate Strategies American Encore	25–Oct 27, 2026	900	likely voters	Democrat 48 Republican 43	See the poll
Highground	21–Oct 25, 2026	400	likely voters	Democrat 52 Republican 39	See the poll
Grayhouse Friends of Elijah Norton	18–Oct 20, 2026	550	likely voters	Democrat 51 Republican 45	See the poll
Grayhouse Friends of Elijah Norton	6–Oct 8, 2026	550	likely voters	Democrat 50 Republican 44	See the poll
Highground	6–Oct 8, 2026	400	likely voters	Democrat 51 Republican 34	See the poll
Wick	3–Oct 6, 2026	1,513	likely voters	Democrat 49 Republican 43	See the poll
Bsp Research Arizona State University Center for Latina/os and American Politics Research	Sep 18, 2026 – Oct 4, 2026	1,300	registered voters	Democrat 47 Republican 34	See the poll
Nextgenp	17–Aug 19, 2026	1,378	registered voters	Democrat 39 Republican 38	See the poll
Highground	15–Aug 18, 2026	400	likely voters	Democrat 50 Republican 34	See the poll
Quantus Insights	14–Aug 17, 2026	780	likely voters	Democrat 49 Republican 43	See the poll
Kreate Strategies American Encore	13–Aug 16, 2026	900	likely voters	Democrat 45 Republican 40	See the poll
Stealth Analytics	11–Aug 13, 2026	530	likely voters	Democrat 43 Republican 38	See the poll
Noble Predictive Insights	10–Aug 13, 2026	1,040	registered voters	Democrat 48 Republican 35	See the poll
Grayhouse	9–Aug 11, 2026	600	likely voters	Democrat 49 Republican 45	See the poll
Tarrance Group Democracy Defense Project	27–Jul 30, 2026	600	likely voters	Democrat 52 Republican 48	See the poll
Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research AARP	26–Jul 28, 2026	913	likely voters	Democrat 52 Republican 44	See the poll
Noble Predictive Insights	5–May 7, 2026	996	registered voters	Democrat 41 Republican 37	See the poll
Tipp Insights League of American Workers	20–Apr 24, 2026	1,159	likely voters	Democrat 48 Republican 38	See the poll
Noble Predictive Insights	23–Feb 26, 2026	1,023	registered voters	Democrat 42 Republican 37	See the poll
Nextgenp	15–Dec 17, 2025	2,725	registered voters	Democrat 51 Republican 32	See the poll
Emerson College	8–Nov 10, 2025	850	registered voters	Democrat 44 Republican 43	See the poll
Grayhouse	26–Oct 28, 2025	744	registered voters	Republican 44 Democrat 40	See the poll
Noble Predictive Insights	11–Aug 18, 2025	948	registered voters	Democrat 39 Republican 37	See the poll
Noble Predictive Insights	12–May 16, 2025	1,026	registered voters	Democrat 40 Republican 38	See the poll
Pulse Decision Science Club for Growth	6–Apr 9, 2025	501	likely voters	Democrat 46 Republican 42	See the poll
Noble Predictive Insights	11–Feb 13, 2025	1,006	registered voters	Democrat 40 Republican 38	See the poll
Kreate Strategies American Encore	5–Feb 7, 2025	924	likely voters	Republican 44 Democrat 43	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Current governor

Katie Hobbs · Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Democrat Incumbent

Katie Hobbs
source
Other Challenger

Risa Lombardo
source
Other Challenger

Teri Hourihan
source
Republican Challenger

Andy Biggs
source

Previous election (2022)

The Democrats won by 0.6 points.

Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 8.8 points.

Other races to watch

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Texas Republican, toss-up
Georgia Democrat, toss-up
Ohio Democrat, toss-up
Kansas Republican, toss-up
Nevada Democrat, toss-up
Florida Republican, toss-up

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: November 2, 2026