Race profile

Arizona

Governor race — AZ

The question

Arizona: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Current forecast

Democrat

Competitive

Probability
96%
Mean margin (pts)
7.6
P(close race)
28%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 53.1%

    Katie Hobbs incumbent

  • Republican 45.7%

    Andy Biggs

  • Other 1.2%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. OhioDemocrat56 %3.2 pt margin
  2. FloridaRepublican55 %3.2 pt margin
  3. NevadaDemocrat61 %3.5 pt margin

In context

How this race stacks up

Democrat Republican Other
HereArizona 53.1%45.7%1.2%
National averageUnited States 49.1% +4.0 48.2% −2.5 2.7% −1.5

Nationwide averages computed across the 36 state races (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

District polls

Polls in this district

20 polls

Pollster Field dates Sample Pop. Topline Source
Nextgenp 17–Aug 19 1,378 RV
Democrat 39 Republican 38
link
Highground 15–Aug 18 400 LV
Democrat 50 Republican 34
link
Quantus Insights 14–Aug 17 780 LV
Democrat 49 Republican 43
link
Kreate Strategies American Encore 13–Aug 16 900 LV
Democrat 45 Republican 40
link
Stealth Analytics 11–Aug 13 530 LV
Democrat 43 Republican 38
link
Noble Predictive Insights 10–Aug 13 1,040 RV
Democrat 48 Republican 35
link
Grayhouse 9–Aug 11 600 LV
Democrat 49 Republican 45
link
Tarrance Group Democracy Defense Project 27–Jul 30 600 LV
Democrat 52 Republican 48
link
Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research AARP 26–Jul 28 913 LV
Democrat 52 Republican 44
link
Noble Predictive Insights 5–May 7 996 RV
Democrat 41 Republican 37
link
Tipp Insights League of American Workers 20–Apr 24 1,159 LV
Democrat 48 Republican 38
link
Noble Predictive Insights 23–Feb 26 1,023 RV
Democrat 42 Republican 37
link
Nextgenp 15–Dec 17 2,725 RV
Democrat 51 Republican 32
link
Emerson College 8–Nov 10 850 RV
Democrat 44 Republican 43
link
Grayhouse 26–Oct 28 744 RV
Republican 44 Democrat 40
link
Noble Predictive Insights 11–Aug 18 948 RV
Democrat 39 Republican 37
link
Noble Predictive Insights 12–May 16 1,026 RV
Democrat 40 Republican 38
link
Pulse Decision Science Club for Growth 6–Apr 9 501 LV
Democrat 46 Republican 42
link
Noble Predictive Insights 11–Feb 13 1,006 RV
Democrat 40 Republican 38
link
Kreate Strategies American Encore 5–Feb 7 924 LV
Republican 44 Democrat 43
link

District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.

Editorial read

Arizona elected a governor with the Democrats at its previous election, by 1 points. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 53% vote share, against 46% for the Republicans, and the riding remains competitive.

Sitting governor

Katie Hobbs

Party Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Katie Hobbs

  • Other Challenger

    Leezah Sun

  • Other Challenger

    Risa Lombardo

  • Other Challenger

    Teri Hourihan

  • Republican Challenger

    Andy Biggs

Previous election · 2022

Won by
Democrat
Margin
0.6 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+7.0 pts

Elsewhere on the map

Other races to watch

Tone only — open a race to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_governor_2026