Vote-Scope Labs · Updated November 2, 2026
Orbit: a second model, compared with our forecast
Orbit is a second, experimental model that reads the same polls as our forecast. Both run every night. Where Orbit picks a different favourite than our forecast, the race is less certain than it looks.
Everywhere Orbit is running
Seats won: the number of ridings where each party is the favourite. The top bar is Orbit, our experimental model; the middle one, Harfang des neiges, our classical model; the bottom one, a 50/50 blend of both.
They agree · 6 Same winner, different call on the majority · 4 They disagree: different winner · 0
British Columbia 2026
Chance of a majority: 80% · Harfang > 99%They agree
U.S. House 2026
Chance of control: 86% · Harfang 98%They agree
U.S. Senate 2026
Chance of control: 57% · Harfang 79%They agree
U.S. Governors 2026
They agree
Quebec 2026
Chance of a majority: 37% · Harfang 29%Same winner, different call on the majority
Canada (federal)
Chance of a majority: 97% · Harfang > 99%They agree
Ontario
Chance of a majority: 42% · Harfang 82%Same winner, different call on the majority
United Kingdom
Chance of a majority: 56% · Harfang 26%Same winner, different call on the majority
French presidential 2027
Chance of winning: > 99% · Harfang 95%They agree
French legislative election
Chance of a majority: 50% · Harfang 45%Same winner, different call on the majority
The test of the past
We replayed past elections using only the polls known the day before the vote. Here is the average gap, per party, between projected seats won and the real results — the same measure as our track record. Lower is better.
| Election | Orbit gap | Harfang gap | Ridings called right (Orbit) |
|---|---|---|---|
| British Columbia 2024 | 1.3 | not replayed | 86% |
| Quebec 2022 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 92% |
| Quebec 2018 | 4.0 | 6.5 | 82% |
How Orbit works, in three ideas
Opinion travels on a sphere
A 2-point gain does not mean the same thing for a party at 5% and a party at 40%. By placing opinion on a curved sphere, Orbit knows this by instinct, and it carries the national swing to each riding the way you carry an arrow across a globe.
Polls are measurements
As in quantum physics, each poll is a measurement of a hidden state: the electorate. Orbit tracks that state day after day, erases each pollster’s own lean and lets no one dictate the average alone.
Qubits instead of dice
Each riding becomes a small quantum register. Instead of rolling dice 50,000 times, Orbit counts the seats exactly, in seconds. A real quantum circuit gives the same answer, to the billionth.