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Vote-Scope Labs · Updated November 2, 2026

Orbit Live experiment

Canada (federal)

Here is what Orbit, our experimental model, sees next to Harfang des neiges, our classical model.

Orbit’s favourite

Liberal
99% chance of finishing first

Seats won

261Harfang 230 8 in 10 chance between 200 and 291

Chance of a majority (172)

97%Harfang > 99% Liberal

Same favourite as Harfang des neiges

85% of ridings

Orbit (quantum) vs. Harfang des neiges (classical): do they agree?

They agree

Orbit (quantum)
Harfang (classical)
50/50 blend
Majority: 172
  • Liberal
  • Conservative
  • Bloc
  • NDP
  • Green

What if we listened to both engines at once?

50/50 blend: Liberal 235 · Chance of a majority98%

The blend gives each riding the average of the chances announced by Orbit and by our reference forecast, then counts the favourites. In our Quebec replays (2018 and 2022, the day before the vote), the blend always beat the reference forecast alone: in 2018 the error drops from 6.5 to 4.5 seats, and the announced probabilities become far more reliable. The 50/50 split is a choice of principle, not a setting tuned on those two elections. Its first real blind test came in Quebec on October 5: the blend picked the right winner in 114 of 127 ridings, against 110 for the reference forecast and 113 for Orbit, and its probabilities were the best calibrated of the three. One election is not enough to conclude: British Columbia is its second test.

Party by party

Liberal +31 Harfang
261
Vote
50.2%
Vote Harfang
46.8%
Chance of a majority
97%
Conservative −30 Harfang
50
Vote
29.6%
Vote Harfang
30.4%
Chance of a majority
< 1%
Bloc −6 Harfang
16
Vote
5.8%
Vote Harfang
6.1%
Chance of a majority
< 1%
NDP +5 Harfang
14
Vote
10.7%
Vote Harfang
11.2%
Chance of a majority
< 1%
Green = Harfang
2
Vote
2.2%
Vote Harfang
2.7%
Chance of a majority
< 1%

The vote, with its margin of uncertainty

The solid bar is Orbit’s projected vote; the thin line, an 8-in-10 range; the black tick, our reference forecast.

  • Liberal 50.2%
  • Conservative 29.6%
  • NDP 10.7%
  • Bloc 5.8%
  • Green 2.2%

Where the two engines disagree

  • Fundy Royal Orbit (quantum): Liberal · 69% Harfang (classical): Conservative
  • Charlesbourg--Haute-Saint-Charles Orbit (quantum): Liberal · 71% Harfang (classical): Conservative
  • Côte-du-Sud-Rivière-du-Loup-Kataskomiq-Témiscouata Orbit (quantum): Liberal · 51% Harfang (classical): Conservative
  • Gaspésie--Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine--Listuguj Orbit (quantum): Liberal · 54% Harfang (classical): Bloc
  • La Pointe-de-l'Île Orbit (quantum): Liberal · 57% Harfang (classical): Bloc
  • Louis-Saint-Laurent--Akiawenhrahk Orbit (quantum): Liberal · 62% Harfang (classical): Conservative
  • Mirabel Orbit (quantum): Liberal · 54% Harfang (classical): Bloc
  • Montmorency--Charlevoix Orbit (quantum): Liberal · 49% Harfang (classical): Conservative
  • Pierre-Boucher--Les Patriotes--Verchères Orbit (quantum): Liberal · 54% Harfang (classical): Bloc
  • Repentigny Orbit (quantum): Liberal · 61% Harfang (classical): Bloc
  • Richmond--Arthabaska Orbit (quantum): Liberal · 69% Harfang (classical): Conservative
  • Shefford Orbit (quantum): Liberal · 65% Harfang (classical): Bloc
  • Algonquin--Renfrew--Pembroke Orbit (quantum): Liberal · 60% Harfang (classical): Conservative
  • Aurora--Oak Ridges--Richmond Hill Orbit (quantum): Liberal · 73% Harfang (classical): Conservative
  • Barrie-Sud--Innisfil Orbit (quantum): Liberal · 56% Harfang (classical): Conservative
  • Brantford--Brant-Sud--Six Nations Orbit (quantum): Liberal · 74% Harfang (classical): Conservative
  • Bruce--Grey--Owen Sound Orbit (quantum): Liberal · 70% Harfang (classical): Conservative
  • Chatham-Kent--Leamington Orbit (quantum): Liberal · 51% Harfang (classical): Conservative
  • Essex Orbit (quantum): Liberal · 53% Harfang (classical): Conservative
  • Flamborough--Glanbrook--Brant-Nord Orbit (quantum): Liberal · 78% Harfang (classical): Conservative
  • Haldimand--Norfolk Orbit (quantum): Liberal · 52% Harfang (classical): Conservative
  • Haliburton--Kawartha Lakes Orbit (quantum): Liberal · 60% Harfang (classical): Conservative
  • Hastings--Lennox and Addington--Tyendinaga Orbit (quantum): Liberal · 69% Harfang (classical): Conservative
  • Huron--Bruce Orbit (quantum): Liberal · 73% Harfang (classical): Conservative
  • Kapuskasing--Timmins--Mushkegowuk Orbit (quantum): Liberal · 75% Harfang (classical): Conservative
  • Kenora--Kiiwetinoong Orbit (quantum): Liberal · 65% Harfang (classical): Conservative
  • London--Fanshawe Orbit (quantum): NDP · 52% Harfang (classical): Conservative
  • Middlesex--London Orbit (quantum): Liberal · 77% Harfang (classical): Conservative
  • Niagara-Ouest Orbit (quantum): Liberal · 79% Harfang (classical): Conservative
  • Oxford Orbit (quantum): Liberal · 65% Harfang (classical): Conservative
  • Parry Sound--Muskoka Orbit (quantum): Liberal · 77% Harfang (classical): Conservative
  • Perth--Wellington Orbit (quantum): Liberal · 72% Harfang (classical): Conservative
  • Sarnia--Lambton--Bkejwanong Orbit (quantum): Liberal · 65% Harfang (classical): Conservative
  • Simcoe--Grey Orbit (quantum): Liberal · 79% Harfang (classical): Conservative
  • Stormont--Dundas--Glengarry Orbit (quantum): Liberal · 63% Harfang (classical): Conservative
  • Vaughan--Woodbridge Orbit (quantum): Liberal · 51% Harfang (classical): Conservative
  • Windsor-Ouest Orbit (quantum): NDP · 53% Harfang (classical): Conservative
  • York-Centre Orbit (quantum): Liberal · 73% Harfang (classical): Conservative
  • York--Durham Orbit (quantum): Liberal · 64% Harfang (classical): Conservative
  • Winnipeg-Centre Orbit (quantum): NDP · 66% Harfang (classical): Liberal
  • Calgary-Est Orbit (quantum): Conservative · 65% Harfang (classical): Liberal
  • Calgary Heritage Orbit (quantum): Conservative · 60% Harfang (classical): Liberal
  • Calgary Nose Hill Orbit (quantum): Conservative · 51% Harfang (classical): Liberal
  • Calgary Signal Hill Orbit (quantum): Conservative · 52% Harfang (classical): Liberal
  • Lethbridge Orbit (quantum): Conservative · 64% Harfang (classical): Liberal
  • St. Albert--Sturgeon River Orbit (quantum): Conservative · 76% Harfang (classical): Liberal
  • Chilliwack--Hope Orbit (quantum): Liberal · 56% Harfang (classical): Conservative
  • Kamloops--Shuswap--Central Rockies Orbit (quantum): Liberal · 70% Harfang (classical): Conservative
  • Mission--Matsqui--Abbotsford Orbit (quantum): Liberal · 55% Harfang (classical): Conservative
  • Vancouver Kingsway Orbit (quantum): NDP · 53% Harfang (classical): Liberal
  • Nunavut Orbit (quantum): NDP · 62% Harfang (classical): Liberal

Orbit’s instruments

Voters who switched sides since the last election

13.4 at least, in points of the electorate

Average gap between pollsters

± 1.6 points, around the most likely state

Horizon

Election today No election date set: forecast if the election were held today, like our reference forecast.

How Orbit works, in three ideas

Opinion travels on a sphere

A 2-point gain does not mean the same thing for a party at 5% and a party at 40%. By placing opinion on a curved sphere, Orbit knows this by instinct, and it carries the national swing to each riding the way you carry an arrow across a globe.

Polls are measurements

As in quantum physics, each poll is a measurement of a hidden state: the electorate. Orbit tracks that state day after day, erases each pollster’s own lean and lets no one dictate the average alone.

Qubits instead of dice

Each riding becomes a small quantum register. Instead of rolling dice 50,000 times, Orbit counts the seats exactly, in seconds. A real quantum circuit gives the same answer, to the billionth.

Read the full explanation