Federal Forecast
VOTE-SCOPE FORECAST · PROPRIETARY PROJECTION · EXCLUSIVE ADJUSTMENTS
Model Harfang des neiges fed_46
RACE BOARD · RUN 2026-09-16
Liberal: 230 seats.
286 polls · 50,000 simulations · our exclusive read of the race
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
Current House Composition
Seats — 343 total
- Liberal 173
- Conservative 138
- Bloc Quebecois 21
- NDP 5
- Green 1
- Vacant 5
Seat projection
Liberal ▲ +1.2 230
- Vote
- 48.0%
- P(majority)
- 100%
- P(largest)
- 100%
Conservative ▬ +0.0 84
- Vote
- 32.1%
- P(majority)
- 0%
- P(largest)
- 0%
Bloc Quebecois ▬ +0.0 21
- Vote
- 5.7%
- P(majority)
- 0%
- P(largest)
- 0%
NDP ▼ -0.6 6
- Vote
- 10.6%
- P(majority)
- 0%
- P(largest)
- 0%
Green ▬ +0.1 2
- Vote
- 2.7%
- P(majority)
- 0%
- P(largest)
- 0%
Analysis
Vote intention
Raw polls (dots) and model estimate (diamonds) with 95% confidence interval.
Scenario probabilities
Probability of winning a majority or finishing strictly first, across the 50,000 Monte Carlo simulations.
Riding map
Color = projected leading party. Hover a riding for details.
All ridings
Sort and filter the 343 ridings by projected winning party, margin and probability.
| Riding | Prov. | Projection | Vote% | Margin | P(win) | vs 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Island--Powell River | BC | Conservative | 31.6% | 1.2% | 45% | Hold |
| Central Newfoundland | NL | Conservative | 45.3% | 1.4% | 57% | Hold |
| Richmond Hill South | ON | Liberal | 44.1% | 1.4% | 55% | Conservative → Liberal |
| Niagara West | ON | Conservative | 43.7% | 1.4% | 61% | Hold |
| Elgin--St. Thomas--London South | ON | Liberal | 42.8% | 1.4% | 59% | Conservative → Liberal |
| Lethbridge | AB | Conservative | 39.6% | 1.5% | 54% | Hold |
| Windsor West | ON | Conservative | 31.3% | 1.5% | 63% | Hold |
| Sudbury East--Manitoulin--Nickel Belt | ON | Liberal | 41.3% | 1.5% | 65% | Conservative → Liberal |
| Simcoe--Grey | ON | Conservative | 43.5% | 1.6% | 57% | Hold |
| Wellington--Halton Hills North | ON | Liberal | 44.1% | 1.6% | 71% | Conservative → Liberal |
| Kamloops--Thompson--Nicola | BC | Liberal | 44.5% | 1.6% | 55% | Conservative → Liberal |
| Skeena--Bulkley Valley | BC | Conservative | 39.1% | 1.6% | 67% | Hold |
| Barrie--Springwater--Oro-Medonte | ON | Liberal | 44.0% | 1.8% | 69% | Conservative → Liberal |
| Parry Sound--Muskoka | ON | Conservative | 43.6% | 1.8% | 74% | Hold |
| Edmonton Griesbach | AB | NDP | 35.9% | 1.9% | 60% | Conservative → NDP |
| Richmond--Arthabaska | QC | Conservative | 36.6% | 1.9% | 81% | Hold |
| Elmwood--Transcona | MB | NDP | 34.6% | 1.9% | 59% | Conservative → NDP |
| Kapuskasing--Timmins--Mushkegowuk | ON | Conservative | 40.3% | 2.0% | 80% | Hold |
| Vancouver East | BC | NDP | 42.7% | 2.0% | 60% | Hold |
| Kamloops--Shuswap--Central Rockies | BC | Conservative | 45.0% | 2.1% | 79% | Hold |
| Flamborough--Glanbrook--Brant North | ON | Conservative | 45.0% | 2.2% | 88% | Hold |
| Saint John--St. Croix | NB | Liberal | 46.4% | 2.3% | 76% | Conservative → Liberal |
| Calgary Midnapore | AB | Conservative | 48.5% | 2.3% | 74% | Hold |
| Repentigny | QC | Bloc Quebecois | 41.5% | 2.3% | 61% | Hold |
| Middlesex--London | ON | Conservative | 44.0% | 2.3% | 90% | Hold |
| Shefford | QC | Liberal | 41.2% | 2.5% | 69% | Bloc Quebecois → Liberal |
| Montmorency--Charlevoix | QC | Conservative | 35.8% | 2.6% | 79% | Hold |
| Long Range Mountains | NL | Liberal | 44.3% | 2.6% | 92% | Conservative → Liberal |
| Saskatoon West | SK | Conservative | 40.5% | 2.6% | 80% | Hold |
| London--Fanshawe | ON | Conservative | 32.8% | 2.7% | 94% | Hold |
| Leeds--Grenville--Thousand Islands--Rideau Lakes | ON | Liberal | 44.1% | 2.8% | 90% | Conservative → Liberal |
| Oshawa | ON | Liberal | 42.8% | 2.8% | 94% | Conservative → Liberal |
| Saanich--Gulf Islands | BC | Green | 39.2% | 3.0% | 99% | Hold |
| Fundy Royal | NB | Conservative | 45.0% | 3.2% | 100% | Hold |
| La Pointe-de-l'Île | QC | Bloc Quebecois | 42.3% | 3.2% | 84% | Hold |
| Huron--Bruce | ON | Conservative | 44.6% | 3.4% | 97% | Hold |
| Lanark--Frontenac | ON | Liberal | 45.2% | 3.5% | 96% | Conservative → Liberal |
| Abbotsford--South Langley | BC | Liberal | 39.1% | 3.6% | 94% | Conservative → Liberal |
| York Centre | ON | Conservative | 46.1% | 3.6% | 100% | Hold |
| Bowmanville--Oshawa North | ON | Liberal | 45.3% | 3.7% | 98% | Conservative → Liberal |
| Cowichan--Malahat--Langford | BC | Liberal | 32.6% | 3.7% | 46% | Conservative → Liberal |
| Niagara Falls--Niagara-on-the-Lake | ON | Liberal | 44.7% | 3.7% | 98% | Conservative → Liberal |
| Aurora--Oak Ridges--Richmond Hill | ON | Conservative | 46.6% | 4.0% | 100% | Hold |
| Perth--Wellington | ON | Conservative | 44.5% | 4.0% | 99% | Hold |
| Vernon--Lake Country--Monashee | BC | Liberal | 47.1% | 4.0% | 97% | Conservative → Liberal |
| Brantford--Brant South--Six Nations | ON | Conservative | 45.1% | 4.0% | 100% | Hold |
| Longueuil--Saint-Hubert | QC | Liberal | 42.8% | 4.1% | 92% | Hold |
| Mirabel | QC | Bloc Quebecois | 39.3% | 4.1% | 92% | Hold |
| Niagara South | ON | Liberal | 43.8% | 4.1% | 99% | Conservative → Liberal |
| Terrebonne | QC | Liberal | 50.2% | 4.1% | 92% | Hold |