Federal Forecast
VOTE-SCOPE FORECAST · PROPRIETARY PROJECTION · EXCLUSIVE ADJUSTMENTS
Model Heron fed_46
RACE BOARD · RUN 2026-07-14
Liberal: 199 seats.
259 polls · 50,000 simulations · our exclusive read of the race
Current House Composition
Seats — 343 total
- Liberal 174
- Conservative 139
- Bloc Quebecois 21
- NDP 5
- Independent 2
- Green 1
- Vacant 1
Seat projection
Liberal ▼ -1.1 199
- Vote
- 41.9%
- P(majority)
- 99%
- P(largest)
- 100%
Conservative ▲ +0.7 110
- Vote
- 34.8%
- P(majority)
- 0%
- P(largest)
- 0%
Bloc Quebecois ▬ -0.3 24
- Vote
- 6.1%
- P(majority)
- 0%
- P(largest)
- 0%
NDP ▲ +0.9 8
- Vote
- 14.2%
- P(majority)
- 0%
- P(largest)
- 0%
Green ▼ -0.6 2
- Vote
- 2.1%
- P(majority)
- 0%
- P(largest)
- 0%
Analysis
Vote intention
Raw polls (dots) and model estimate (diamonds) with 95% confidence interval.
Scenario probabilities
Probability of winning a majority or finishing strictly first, across the 50,000 Monte Carlo simulations.
Riding map
Color = projected leading party. Hover a riding for details.
All ridings
Sort and filter the 343 ridings by projected winning party, margin and probability.
| Riding | Prov. | Projection | Vote% | Margin | P(win) | vs 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Souris--Moose Mountain | SK | Conservative | 70.8% | 59.6% | 100% | Hold |
| Swift Current--Grasslands--Kindersley | SK | Conservative | 68.8% | 56.0% | 100% | Hold |
| Ponoka--Didsbury | AB | Conservative | 60.9% | 54.4% | 100% | Hold |
| Desnethé--Missinippi--Churchill River | SK | Liberal | 66.0% | 53.5% | 100% | Hold |
| Winnipeg South Centre | MB | Liberal | 67.5% | 51.1% | 100% | Hold |
| Scarborough Southwest | ON | Liberal | 66.3% | 50.7% | 100% | Hold |
| Toronto--Danforth | ON | Liberal | 63.3% | 49.9% | 100% | Hold |
| Dartmouth--Cole Harbour | NS | Liberal | 66.4% | 49.8% | 100% | Hold |
| Ottawa--Vanier--Gloucester | ON | Liberal | 63.8% | 48.6% | 100% | Hold |
| Yorkton--Melville | SK | Conservative | 64.3% | 48.4% | 100% | Hold |
| Beaches--East York | ON | Liberal | 64.5% | 47.1% | 100% | Hold |
| Cape Spear | NL | Liberal | 66.7% | 47.1% | 100% | Hold |
| Prince George--Peace River--Northern Rockies | BC | Conservative | 65.4% | 46.6% | 100% | Hold |
| Toronto Centre | ON | Liberal | 60.9% | 46.2% | 100% | Hold |
| Carlton Trail--Eagle Creek | SK | Conservative | 64.3% | 45.8% | 100% | Hold |
| Battle River--Crowfoot | AB | Conservative | 61.4% | 45.7% | 100% | Hold |
| Beauce | QC | Conservative | 62.4% | 45.2% | 100% | Hold |
| Acadie--Bathurst | NB | Liberal | 65.1% | 45.1% | 100% | Hold |
| Grande Prairie | AB | Conservative | 60.3% | 44.4% | 100% | Hold |
| Halifax | NS | Liberal | 61.7% | 44.4% | 100% | Hold |
| University--Rosedale | ON | Liberal | 61.8% | 44.0% | 100% | Hold |
| Lakeland | AB | Conservative | 59.7% | 43.5% | 100% | Hold |
| Halifax West | NS | Liberal | 64.2% | 43.1% | 100% | Hold |
| Mégantic--L'Érable--Lotbinière | QC | Conservative | 62.4% | 42.6% | 100% | Hold |
| Battlefords--Lloydminster--Meadow Lake | SK | Conservative | 62.5% | 42.4% | 100% | Hold |
| Orléans | ON | Liberal | 64.1% | 42.3% | 100% | Hold |
| St. Boniface--St. Vital | MB | Liberal | 63.3% | 41.2% | 100% | Hold |
| St. John's East | NL | Liberal | 60.8% | 41.0% | 100% | Hold |
| Ottawa South | ON | Liberal | 61.8% | 41.0% | 100% | Hold |
| Moose Jaw--Lake Centre--Lanigan | SK | Conservative | 58.9% | 40.7% | 100% | Hold |
| Charlottetown | PE | Liberal | 63.2% | 40.3% | 100% | Hold |
| Fort McMurray--Cold Lake | AB | Conservative | 58.7% | 40.1% | 100% | Hold |
| Peace River--Westlock | AB | Conservative | 55.8% | 39.7% | 100% | Hold |
| Ottawa Centre | ON | Liberal | 59.8% | 39.5% | 100% | Hold |
| Ottawa West--Nepean | ON | Liberal | 60.3% | 39.5% | 100% | Hold |
| Winnipeg South | MB | Liberal | 62.9% | 39.1% | 100% | Hold |
| Winnipeg North | MB | Liberal | 61.7% | 38.7% | 100% | Hold |
| Vancouver Granville | BC | Liberal | 61.5% | 38.7% | 100% | Hold |
| Vancouver Quadra | BC | Liberal | 62.6% | 38.1% | 100% | Hold |
| Ahuntsic-Cartierville | QC | Liberal | 58.1% | 38.0% | 100% | Hold |
| Hull--Aylmer | QC | Liberal | 59.6% | 37.8% | 100% | Hold |
| Prince Albert | SK | Conservative | 58.2% | 37.6% | 100% | Hold |
| Ville-Marie--Le Sud-Ouest--Île-des-Soeurs | QC | Liberal | 61.1% | 37.5% | 100% | Hold |
| Lac-Saint-Louis | QC | Liberal | 65.8% | 37.4% | 100% | Hold |
| Notre-Dame-de-Grâce--Westmount | QC | Liberal | 61.7% | 37.2% | 100% | Hold |
| Saint-Léonard--Saint-Michel | QC | Liberal | 62.0% | 36.8% | 100% | Hold |
| Moncton--Dieppe | NB | Liberal | 61.6% | 36.6% | 100% | Hold |
| Bow River | AB | Conservative | 57.4% | 36.5% | 100% | Hold |
| Davenport | ON | Liberal | 54.4% | 36.5% | 100% | Hold |
| Brossard--Saint-Lambert | QC | Liberal | 59.7% | 35.9% | 100% | Hold |