Riding profile

Kamloops--Thompson--Nicola

Federal riding — BC · Mixed · bc interior

The question

Kamloops--Thompson--Nicola: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Liberal

Toss-up

Probability
55%
Mean margin (pts)
1.6
P(close race)
99%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 44.5%
  • Conservative 44.3%
  • Green 1.7%
  • PPC 1.4%
  • NDP 0.6%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative Green PPC
HereKamloops--Thompson--Nicola 44.5%44.3%1.7%1.4%
Provincial averageBritish Columbia 47.6% −3.1 33.6% +10.7 3.0% −1.3 1.1% +0.3
National averageCanada 48.0% −3.5 32.1% +12.2 2.7% −1.0 1.0% +0.4

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Kamloops--Thompson--Nicola, a mixed riding in British Columbia, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 11-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 44% vote share, against 44% for the Conservative Party, and the race could swing. Linguistic profile: 0% francophone, 96% anglophone.

Sitting member

Frank Caputo

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
11.3 pts
Turnout
69.3%
Margin shift vs current projection
-9.6 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Frank Caputo Elected Conservative 32,008 51.5 Parliamentarian
Iain Currie Liberal 24,961 40.2 Lawyer
Miguel Godau NDP 3,681 5.9 Therapist
Jenna Lindley Green 936 1.5 Business Owner
Chris Enns PPC 516 0.8 Project Manager

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 0.2%
  • Anglophone 96.3%
  • Non-francophone (other) 3.5%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46