Riding profile

Vernon--Lake Country--Monashee

Federal riding — BC · Mixed · bc interior

The question

Vernon--Lake Country--Monashee: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Liberal

Toss-up

Probability
97%
Mean margin (pts)
4.0
P(close race)
68%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 47.1%
  • Conservative 43.1%
  • Green 1.9%
  • PPC 0.7%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative Green PPC
HereVernon--Lake Country--Monashee 47.1%43.1%1.9%0.7%
Provincial averageBritish Columbia 47.6% −0.6 33.6% +9.5 3.0% −1.1 1.1% −0.4
National averageCanada 48.0% −0.9 32.1% +11.0 2.7% −0.8 1.0% −0.3

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Vernon--Lake Country--Monashee, a mixed riding in British Columbia, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 8-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 47% vote share, against 43% for the Conservative Party, and the race could swing. Linguistic profile: 0% francophone, 97% anglophone.

Sitting member

Scott Anderson

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
7.5 pts
Turnout
72.7%
Margin shift vs current projection
-3.5 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Scott Anderson Elected Conservative 33,850 50.4 Business Person
Anna Warwick Sears Liberal 28,769 42.8 Retired Executive Director
Leah Ellen Main NDP 3,417 5.1 Local Government Official
Blair Visscher Green 1,105 1.6 Teacher

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 0.2%
  • Anglophone 97.0%
  • Non-francophone (other) 2.8%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46