Riding profile

Kamloops--Shuswap--Central Rockies

Federal riding — BC · Mixed · bc interior

The question

Kamloops--Shuswap--Central Rockies: a safe seat for the Conservative Party?

Editorial read

Kamloops--Shuswap--Central Rockies, a mixed riding in British Columbia, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 13-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservative Party ahead at 47% vote share, against 38% for the Liberal Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 0% francophone, 97% anglophone.

Sitting member

Mel Arnold

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Conservative

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
9.1
P(close race)
4%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 47.3%
  • Liberal 38.2%
  • NDP 2.6%
  • Green 2.4%
  • PPC 1.4%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Liberal NDP Green
HereKamloops--Shuswap--Central Rockies 47.3%38.2%2.6%2.4%
Provincial averageBritish Columbia 35.8% +11.4 41.9% −3.8 10.6% −8.0 2.6% −0.2
National averageCanada 34.8% +12.5 41.9% −3.7 14.2% −11.6 2.1% +0.3

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
13.2 pts
Turnout
73.7%
Margin shift vs current projection
-4.1 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Mel Arnold Elected Conservative 35,556 52.2 Parliamentarian
Ken Robertson Liberal 26,529 39.0 Business Owner
Phaedra Idzan NDP 3,730 5.5 Customer Service
Owen Madden Green 1,639 2.4 Farmer
John Michael Henry PPC 602 0.9 Building Technologist

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 0.4%
  • Anglophone 97.3%
  • Non-francophone (other) 2.3%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46