Riding profile

Kamloops--Shuswap--Central Rockies

Federal riding — BC · Mixed · bc interior

The question

Kamloops--Shuswap--Central Rockies: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Conservative

Toss-up

Probability
79%
Mean margin (pts)
2.1
P(close race)
94%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 45.0%
  • Liberal 43.3%
  • Green 2.6%
  • PPC 1.4%
  • NDP 0.5%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Liberal Green PPC
HereKamloops--Shuswap--Central Rockies 45.0%43.3%2.6%1.4%
Provincial averageBritish Columbia 33.6% +11.4 47.6% −4.3 3.0% −0.4 1.1% +0.4
National averageCanada 32.1% +12.9 48.0% −4.7 2.7% −0.1 1.0% +0.4

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Kamloops--Shuswap--Central Rockies, a mixed riding in British Columbia, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 13-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservative Party ahead at 45% vote share, against 43% for the Liberal Party, and the race could swing. Linguistic profile: 0% francophone, 97% anglophone.

Sitting member

Mel Arnold

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
13.2 pts
Turnout
73.7%
Margin shift vs current projection
-11.1 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Mel Arnold Elected Conservative 35,556 52.2 Parliamentarian
Ken Robertson Liberal 26,529 39.0 Business Owner
Phaedra Idzan NDP 3,730 5.5 Customer Service
Owen Madden Green 1,639 2.4 Farmer
John Michael Henry PPC 602 0.9 Building Technologist

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 0.4%
  • Anglophone 97.3%
  • Non-francophone (other) 2.3%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46