Riding profile

Columbia--Kootenay--Southern Rockies

Federal riding — BC · Rural · bc interior

The question

Columbia--Kootenay--Southern Rockies: a safe seat for the Conservative Party?

Current forecast

Conservative

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
11.8
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 42.4%
  • Liberal 30.6%
  • NDP 10.5%
  • Green 1.7%
  • PPC 1.3%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Liberal NDP Green
HereColumbia--Kootenay--Southern Rockies 42.4%30.6%10.5%1.7%
Provincial averageBritish Columbia 33.6% +8.8 47.6% −17.0 8.4% +2.1 3.0% −1.3
National averageCanada 32.1% +10.3 48.0% −17.4 10.6% −0.1 2.7% −1.0

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Columbia--Kootenay--Southern Rockies, a rural riding in British Columbia, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 22-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservative Party ahead at 42% vote share, against 31% for the Liberal Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 1% francophone, 98% anglophone.

Sitting member

Rob Morrison

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
22.1 pts
Turnout
73.3%
Margin shift vs current projection
-10.3 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Rob Morrison Elected Conservative 36,081 50.4 Parliamentarian
Reggie Goldsbury Liberal 20,184 28.2 Executive Assistant
Kallee Lins NDP 12,871 18.0 Executive Director
Steven Maffioli Green 1,064 1.5 Grocery Store Worker
James Wiedrick Independent 856 1.2 Physician
Laurie Baird PPC 486 0.7 Retired

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 0.6%
  • Anglophone 97.6%
  • Non-francophone (other) 1.8%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46