Riding profile

Calgary Signal Hill

Federal riding — AB · Urban · calgary

The question

Calgary Signal Hill: will Conservative lose this seat to Liberal?

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
10.1
P(close race)
2%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 53.2%
  • Conservative 43.1%
  • NDP 2.6%
  • PPC 1.1%
  • Green 1.1%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative NDP PPC
HereCalgary Signal Hill 53.2%43.1%2.6%1.1%
Provincial averageAlberta 40.8% +12.4 43.8% −0.7 5.2% −2.6 1.3% −0.2
National averageCanada 48.0% +5.2 32.1% +11.0 10.6% −8.0 1.0% +0.1

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Calgary Signal Hill, an urban riding in Alberta, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 24-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 53% vote share, against 43% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

David McKenzie

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
23.6 pts
Turnout
74.3%
Margin shift vs current projection
-13.5 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
David GL McKenzie Elected Conservative 41,638 60.1 Lawyer
Bryndis Whitson Liberal 25,174 36.4 Podcast Host
Khalis Ahmed NDP 1,656 2.4 Geologist
Grant Strem PPC 492 0.7 Energy Consultant
Paul Godard Other 265 0.4 Iron Worker

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Anglophone 84.4%
  • Non-francophone (other) 15.6%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46