Riding profile
Richmond Hill South
The question
Richmond Hill South: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Richmond Hill South, a suburban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 8-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservative Party ahead at 46% vote share, against 41% for the Liberal Party, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Vincent Ho
Sits with Conservative
Current forecast
Conservative
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 5.5
- P(close race)
- 39%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Conservative | Liberal | NDP | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereRichmond Hill South | 46.1% | 40.6% | 5.0% | 1.3% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 37.5% +8.7 | 45.6% −5.0 | 6.4% −1.4 | 1.6% −0.3 |
| National averageCanada | 34.8% +11.3 | 41.9% −1.3 | 14.2% −9.2 | 2.1% −0.8 |
Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · FED 2025
Detailed result · FED 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vincent Ho Elected | Conservative | 30,615 | 52.3 | Lawyer |
| Majid Jowhari | Liberal | 26,009 | 44.4 | Parliamentarian |
| Ebrahim Astaraki | NDP | 1,054 | 1.8 | Education Consultant |
| Alison Lam | Green | 495 | 0.8 | Student |
| Joshua Sideris | PPC | 244 | 0.4 | Founding Engineer |
| Yan Wang | Independent | 124 | 0.2 | Manager |
| Juni Yeung | Other | 43 | 0.1 | Interpreter |
Demographics
Who lives here
Linguistic profile
- Anglophone 53.4%
- Non-francophone (other) 46.6%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
fed_46