Riding profile

Richmond Hill South

Federal riding — ON · Suburban · toronto suburbs york durham

The question

Richmond Hill South: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Liberal

Toss-up

Probability
55%
Mean margin (pts)
1.4
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 44.1%
  • Conservative 44.0%
  • NDP 3.2%
  • Green 1.7%
  • PPC 0.8%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Niagara WestConservative61 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative NDP Green
HereRichmond Hill South 44.1%44.0%3.2%1.7%
Provincial averageOntario 49.1% −4.9 35.3% +8.7 4.8% −1.6 2.0% −0.3
National averageCanada 48.0% −3.9 32.1% +11.9 10.6% −7.4 2.7% −1.0

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Richmond Hill South, a suburban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 8-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 44% vote share, against 44% for the Conservative Party, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Vincent Ho

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
7.8 pts
Turnout
63.0%
Margin shift vs current projection
-6.4 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Vincent Ho Elected Conservative 30,615 52.3 Lawyer
Majid Jowhari Liberal 26,009 44.4 Parliamentarian
Ebrahim Astaraki NDP 1,054 1.8 Education Consultant
Alison Lam Green 495 0.8 Student
Joshua Sideris PPC 244 0.4 Founding Engineer
Yan Wang Independent 124 0.2 Manager
Juni Yeung Other 43 0.1 Interpreter

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Anglophone 53.4%
  • Non-francophone (other) 46.6%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46