Riding profile
Thornhill
The question
Thornhill: a safe seat for the Conservative Party?
Current forecast
Conservative
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 26.5
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Conservative | Liberal | NDP | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereThornhill | 57.7% | 31.3% | 3.8% | 1.4% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 35.3% +22.5 | 49.1% −17.8 | 4.8% −1.0 | 2.0% −0.6 |
| National averageCanada | 32.1% +25.6 | 48.0% −16.8 | 10.6% −6.8 | 2.7% −1.3 |
Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Thornhill, an urban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 35-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservative Party ahead at 58% vote share, against 31% for the Liberal Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Melissa Lantsman
Sits with Conservative
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · FED 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melissa Lantsman Elected | Conservative | 44,419 | 66.4 | Parliamentarian |
| Liane Kotler | Liberal | 20,873 | 31.2 | Journalist |
| William McCarty | NDP | 833 | 1.2 | IT Coordinator |
| Amir Hart | PPC | 440 | 0.7 | Administrative Assistant |
| Dominic Piotrowski | Green | 353 | 0.5 | Plant Technician |
Demographics
Who lives here
Linguistic profile
- Anglophone 66.5%
- Non-francophone (other) 33.5%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
fed_46