Riding profile

Thornhill

Federal riding — ON · Urban · toronto core

The question

Thornhill: a safe seat for the Conservative Party?

Editorial read

Thornhill, an urban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 35-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservative Party ahead at 60% vote share, against 28% for the Liberal Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Melissa Lantsman

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Conservative

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
31.7
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 59.7%
  • Liberal 28.0%
  • NDP 5.8%
  • Green 1.0%
  • PPC 1.0%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Liberal NDP Green
HereThornhill 59.7%28.0%5.8%1.0%
Provincial averageOntario 37.5% +22.2 45.6% −17.7 6.4% −0.6 1.6% −0.6
National averageCanada 34.8% +24.9 41.9% −13.9 14.2% −8.4 2.1% −1.1

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
34.8 pts
Turnout
68.9%
Margin shift vs current projection
-3.2 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Melissa Lantsman Elected Conservative 44,419 66.4 Parliamentarian
Liane Kotler Liberal 20,873 31.2 Journalist
William McCarty NDP 833 1.2 IT Coordinator
Amir Hart PPC 440 0.7 Administrative Assistant
Dominic Piotrowski Green 353 0.5 Plant Technician

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Anglophone 66.5%
  • Non-francophone (other) 33.5%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46