Riding profile
Don Valley North
The question
Don Valley North: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?
Editorial read
Don Valley North, an urban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 11-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 50% vote share, against 36% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Maggie Chi
Sits with Liberal
Current forecast
Liberal
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 13.9
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereDon Valley North | 49.8% | 35.9% | 5.9% | 1.4% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 45.6% +4.2 | 37.5% −1.6 | 6.4% −0.5 | 1.6% −0.2 |
| National averageCanada | 41.9% +7.9 | 34.8% +1.1 | 14.2% −8.3 | 2.1% −0.7 |
Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · FED 2025
Detailed result · FED 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maggie Chi Elected | Liberal | 25,822 | 53.2 | Policy Advisor |
| Joe Tay | Conservative | 20,546 | 42.3 | Online Radio Host |
| Naila Saeed | NDP | 1,191 | 2.5 | Child Care Operator |
| Andrew Armstrong | Green | 448 | 0.9 | Restaurant Supervisor |
| Xiaohua Gong | Independent | 260 | 0.5 | Media |
| Ivan Milivojevic | PPC | 260 | 0.5 | Technical Service Manager |
Demographics
Who lives here
Linguistic profile
- Anglophone 56.2%
- Non-francophone (other) 43.8%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
fed_46