Riding profile

Scarborough--Agincourt

Federal riding — ON · Urban · toronto core

The question

Scarborough--Agincourt: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Editorial read

Scarborough--Agincourt, an urban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 11-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 51% vote share, against 36% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Jean Yip

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
14.5
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 50.9%
  • Conservative 36.4%
  • NDP 6.0%
  • Green 0.5%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative NDP Green
HereScarborough--Agincourt 50.9%36.4%6.0%0.5%
Provincial averageOntario 45.6% +5.2 37.5% −1.1 6.4% −0.4 1.6% −1.1
National averageCanada 41.9% +9.0 34.8% +1.6 14.2% −8.2 2.1% −1.6

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
11.4 pts
Turnout
60.8%
Margin shift vs current projection
+3.2 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Jean Yip Elected Liberal 27,552 54.3 Parliamentarian
Aris Movsessian Conservative 21,732 42.8 Political Staffer
Dan Lovell NDP 1,449 2.9 Secondary School Teacher

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Anglophone 49.1%
  • Non-francophone (other) 50.9%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46