Riding profile

Scarborough North

Federal riding — ON · Urban · toronto core

The question

Scarborough North: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Editorial read

Scarborough North, an urban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 30-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 59% vote share, against 27% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Shaun Chen

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
32.7
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 59.4%
  • Conservative 26.8%
  • NDP 6.3%
  • Green 0.5%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative NDP Green
HereScarborough North 59.4%26.8%6.3%0.5%
Provincial averageOntario 45.6% +13.8 37.5% −10.7 6.4% −0.1 1.6% −1.1
National averageCanada 41.9% +17.5 34.8% −8.0 14.2% −7.9 2.1% −1.6

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
29.5 pts
Turnout
60.0%
Margin shift vs current projection
+3.2 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Shaun Chen Elected Liberal 29,418 63.0 Parliamentarian
Gurmit Sandhu Conservative 15,487 33.1 Insurance Broker
Karishma Manji NDP 1,827 3.9 Family Physician

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Anglophone 49.5%
  • Non-francophone (other) 50.5%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46