Byelection

Scarborough North

Federal riding — ON · Urban · toronto core

The question

Scarborough North: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

By-election — the next vote in this seat

By-election favourite

Liberal

100% · Probability

  • Seat vacant — writ pending
  • Shaun Chen is leaving
  • Mean margin (pts) : 45.1

Projected shares

Liberal 70.9%
Conservative 23.7%
NDP 3.9%

Why this differs from the map above

Both readings favour Liberal.

The projection below answers a general election: every seat voting at once. This one answers the by-election actually coming. By-election turnout is differential — it costs whichever side is demobilised, which is why the two can name different winners.

Full by-election desk →

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
37.9
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 62.7%
  • Conservative 24.8%
  • NDP 4.2%
  • Green 0.8%
  • PPC 0.5%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative NDP Green
HereScarborough North 62.7%24.8%4.2%0.8%
Provincial averageOntario 49.1% +13.6 35.3% −10.4 4.8% −0.5 2.0% −1.1
National averageCanada 48.0% +14.7 32.1% −7.3 10.6% −6.4 2.7% −1.9

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Scarborough North, an urban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 30-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 63% vote share, against 25% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Shaun Chen

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
29.5 pts
Turnout
60.0%
Margin shift vs current projection
+8.4 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Shaun Chen Elected Liberal 29,418 63.0 Parliamentarian
Gurmit Sandhu Conservative 15,487 33.1 Insurance Broker
Karishma Manji NDP 1,827 3.9 Family Physician

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Anglophone 49.5%
  • Non-francophone (other) 50.5%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46