Scarborough North
Federal by-election in Ontario on December 7, 2026, after the departure of Shaun Chen (Liberal).
The Liberal Party is the favourite, with a better than 99% chance of winning and 70% of the projected vote.
The forecast
| Party | Projected share | Range (80%) | Chance of winning |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liberal | 70.1% | | >99% |
| Conservative | 23.0% | | <1% |
| NDP | 4.3% | | <1% |
| People's Party | 1.8% | | <1% |
There is no local poll. The forecast starts from our current federal projection for the riding and adds the turnout gap measured at the April 13, 2026 by-elections. No personal vote is removed, for lack of a reliable measure.
What the forecast adjusts
- By-election turnout
- At the April 13, 2026 by-elections, for the same national shift, the Conservative vote fell about 3 points further and the Liberal vote rose by as much: opposition voters turn out less than government voters. Conservative −2.8 · Liberal +3.1
The 2025 result
The race
Shaun Chen leaves a riding where the Liberals won more than 60% in 2025. We cannot separate his personal vote from the riding’s own lean, so we remove none, and the seat starts as a very safe Liberal hold.
- Shaun Chen left the House of Commons on August 15, 2026, after holding the riding since 2015.
- He won 62.4% in 2025, 13.4 points above the Liberal share across Ontario.
- The riding was created in 2013 and Chen won it at its first election, so there is no earlier result to measure his personal vote against.
The other by-elections on December 7, 2026
| Riding | Favourite | Chance of winning |
|---|---|---|
| Rosemont—La Petite-PatrieQuebec | Liberal | 95% |
| Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot—ActonQuebec | Bloc Québécois | 72% |
| Laurier—Sainte-MarieQuebec | Liberal | >99% |
| Yorkton—MelvilleSaskatchewan | Conservative | >99% |
| Brantford—Brant SouthOntario | Liberal | 86% |