Federal by-election · Ontario · expected
The safest Liberal vacancy yet.
Shaun Chen is leaving a riding where the Liberals cleared sixty per cent in 2025. The model finds no identifiable personal-vote premium to remove, so the coming by-election begins as a very safe Liberal hold.
Seat vacant · writ not yet issued
The Vote-Scope forecast
Projected vote share (10th–90th percentile, median marked)
No constituency poll exists. The engine starts from the riding’s current federal projection and applies the measured by-election turnout residual. Because there is no defensible pre-Chen comparison on the current boundaries, personal_vote_pct is intentionally left unapplied rather than guessed.
How this projection is built
By-election turnout residual
Measured on April 13, 2026: at equal national swing, the Conservative vote fell about 3 points further and the Liberal vote rose by about as much. Opposition voters stay home; government voters turn out.
Conservative -2.8 · Liberal +3.1
2025 result — the seat as it was won
Why this by-election exists
- Shaun Chen announced he will resign from the House of Commons effective August 15, 2026, after representing the riding since 2015.
- He won 62.4% in 2025, 13.4 points above the Liberal Ontario-wide share.
- That margin cannot be cleanly identified as personal rather than structural, so the model applies no personal-vote subtraction.
No polling day yet
Under the Canada Elections Act the writ must issue between 11 and 180 days after the Speaker notifies the Chief Electoral Officer of the vacancy.
Sources