Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot—Acton
Federal by-election in Quebec on December 7, 2026, after the departure of Simon-Pierre Savard-Tremblay (Bloc Québécois).
The Bloc Québécois is the favourite, with a 72% chance of winning and 38% of the projected vote.
The forecast
| Party | Projected share | Range (80%) | Chance of winning |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bloc Québécois | 38.0% | | 72% |
| Liberal | 34.4% | | 28% |
| Conservative | 17.7% | | <1% |
| NDP | 5.3% | | <1% |
| People's Party | 2.3% | | <1% |
| Green | 2.3% | | <1% |
There is no local poll. The forecast starts from our current federal projection for the riding, removes a small personal vote, and adds the turnout gap measured at the April 13, 2026 by-elections, when voters for the government party turned out more than opposition voters.
What the forecast adjusts
- Personal vote removed
- 4 points removed from the Bloc Québécois vote: the share that went to Simon-Pierre Savard-Tremblay rather than to the party. 43.5% → 39.5%
The 2025 result
The race
Simon-Pierre Savard-Tremblay left the Commons to run for the Parti Québécois in Saint-Hyacinthe. The Bloc was already 4.8 points above its Quebec-wide score here in 2015, four years before he won the seat, so most of its lead belongs to the riding.
- Savard-Tremblay resigned on June 19, 2026 to run for the Parti Québécois in Saint-Hyacinthe at the Quebec election of October 5, 2026.
- Bloc share compared with its Quebec-wide vote: +4.8 points in 2015, before his election, then +8.4 in 2019, +13.9 in 2021 and +15.3 in 2025.
- Since the edge existed before him, we remove only a small personal vote: 4 points.
The other by-elections on December 7, 2026
| Riding | Favourite | Chance of winning |
|---|---|---|
| Rosemont—La Petite-PatrieQuebec | Liberal | 95% |
| Laurier—Sainte-MarieQuebec | Liberal | >99% |
| Yorkton—MelvilleSaskatchewan | Conservative | >99% |
| Brantford—Brant SouthOntario | Liberal | 86% |
| Scarborough NorthOntario | Liberal | >99% |