Federal by-election · Quebec · writ pending

A Bloc seat, not a Bloc star.

Simon-Pierre Savard-Tremblay is running for the Parti Québécois in Saint-Hyacinthe this October. Unlike Chicoutimi, the departing member is not the reason his party wins here: the Bloc premium predates him.

Seat vacant · writ not yet issued

The Vote-Scope forecast

Projected vote share (10th–90th percentile, median marked)

Bloc Québécois

37.7 % Chance of winning: 60 %

Liberal

36.1 % Chance of winning: 41 %

Conservative

18.3 % Chance of winning: < 1 %

NDP

4.8 % Chance of winning: < 1 %

Green

2.1 % Chance of winning: < 1 %

No constituency poll exists, so the projection starts from the riding’s current general-election projection and adds the by-election turnout residual measured on April 13, 2026.

How this projection is built

Personal vote removed

4 points stripped from the Bloc Québécois baseline — the share that belonged to Simon-Pierre Savard-Tremblay rather than to the party.

43.5 % → 39.5 %

2025 result — the seat as it was won

Bloc Québécois 43.1 %

Liberal 33.0 %

Conservative 17.7 %

NDP 2.3 %

Green 1.4 %

69.8 %

Why this by-election exists

Savard-Tremblay is leaving the Commons to stand for the Parti Québécois in Saint-Hyacinthe at the Quebec general election expected in October 2026.
The Bloc ran 4.8 points ahead of its Quebec-wide score here in 2015 — before he was elected. The lean belongs to the riding, not to him.
The correction applied is therefore small, and deliberately conservative.
The vacancy date still has to be confirmed with the Chief Electoral Officer.

No polling day yet

Under the Canada Elections Act the writ must issue between 11 and 180 days after the Speaker notifies the Chief Electoral Officer of the vacancy.

Sources