Federal by-election · Saskatchewan · expected
The safest of the eight.
Rural Saskatchewan at its most Conservative. The seat ran ahead of the provincial Conservative score before Wagantall was ever elected, so almost none of the margin is personal — and almost nothing about this race is in doubt.
Seat vacant · writ not yet issued
The Vote-Scope forecast
Projected vote share (10th–90th percentile, median marked)
Baseline from the riding’s current general-election projection, minus a small personal-vote correction, plus the measured by-election turnout residual — which works against the Conservatives even in a seat this safe.
How this projection is built
Personal vote removed
4 points stripped from the Conservative baseline — the share that belonged to Cathay Wagantall rather than to the party.
59.5 % → 55.5 %
By-election turnout residual
Measured on April 13, 2026: at equal national swing, the Conservative vote fell about 3 points further and the Liberal vote rose by about as much. Opposition voters stay home; government voters turn out.
Conservative -2.8 · Liberal +3.1
2025 result — the seat as it was won
Why this by-election exists
- Cathay Wagantall announced her resignation, effective August 31, 2026.
- Conservative share versus the Saskatchewan-wide Conservative vote: +10.5 points in 2015, before she was elected. The premium is structural.
- The Conservatives took 77% here in 2025 — the largest margin among the eight pending or expected by-elections.
No polling day yet
Under the Canada Elections Act the writ must issue between 11 and 180 days after the Speaker notifies the Chief Electoral Officer of the vacancy.
Sources