Yorkton—Melville
Federal by-election in Saskatchewan on December 7, 2026, after the departure of Cathay Wagantall (Conservative).
The Conservative Party is the favourite, with a better than 99% chance of winning and 63% of the projected vote.
The forecast
| Party | Projected share | Range (80%) | Chance of winning |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 63.5% | | >99% |
| Liberal | 28.7% | | <1% |
| Green | 3.3% | | <1% |
| People's Party | 2.4% | | <1% |
| NDP | 2.2% | | <1% |
There is no local poll. The forecast starts from our current federal projection for the riding, removes 4 points of personal vote, and adds the turnout gap measured at the April 13, 2026 by-elections, which costs the Conservatives a little even here.
What the forecast adjusts
- Personal vote removed
- 4 points removed from the Conservative vote: the share that went to Cathay Wagantall rather than to the party. 58.4% → 54.4%
- By-election turnout
- At the April 13, 2026 by-elections, for the same national shift, the Conservative vote fell about 3 points further and the Liberal vote rose by as much: opposition voters turn out less than government voters. Conservative −2.8 · Liberal +3.1
The 2025 result
The race
A rural Saskatchewan riding where the Conservatives took 77% in 2025. They already ran well above their provincial score before Cathay Wagantall was elected, so very little of the margin is personal.
- Cathay Wagantall resigned her seat effective August 31, 2026.
- Conservative share compared with the party’s Saskatchewan-wide vote: +10.5 points in 2015, before she was elected, and +11.9 in 2025.
- At 77% in 2025, this is the largest Conservative margin among the six seats voting on December 7.
The other by-elections on December 7, 2026
| Riding | Favourite | Chance of winning |
|---|---|---|
| Rosemont—La Petite-PatrieQuebec | Liberal | 95% |
| Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot—ActonQuebec | Bloc Québécois | 72% |
| Laurier—Sainte-MarieQuebec | Liberal | >99% |
| Brantford—Brant SouthOntario | Liberal | 86% |
| Scarborough NorthOntario | Liberal | >99% |