Riding profile
Scarborough Southwest
The question
Scarborough Southwest: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?
Current forecast
Liberal
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 54.9
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereScarborough Southwest | 69.2% | 14.2% | 4.7% | 3.1% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 49.1% +20.1 | 35.3% −21.1 | 4.8% −0.1 | 2.0% +1.1 |
| National averageCanada | 48.0% +21.2 | 32.1% −17.9 | 10.6% −5.9 | 2.7% +0.4 |
Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Scarborough Southwest, an urban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 31-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 69% vote share, against 14% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Doly Begum
Sits with Liberal
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · FED 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bill Blair Elected | Liberal | 33,495 | 61.5 | Parliamentarian |
| Asm Tarun | Conservative | 16,652 | 30.6 | Family Physician |
| Fatima Shaban | NDP | 2,730 | 5.0 | Administrative Coordinator |
| Amanda Cain | Green | 754 | 1.4 | Communications Consultant |
| Michael Poulin | PPC | 567 | 1.0 | IT Project Manager |
| Imran Khan | Other | 165 | 0.3 | Broker of Record |
| Christine Nugent | Other | 113 | 0.2 | College Instructor |
Demographics
Who lives here
Linguistic profile
- Anglophone 73.1%
- Non-francophone (other) 26.9%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
fed_46