Riding profile

Scarborough Southwest

Federal riding — ON · Urban · toronto core

The question

Scarborough Southwest: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Editorial read

Scarborough Southwest, an urban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 31-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 66% vote share, against 16% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Doly Begum

Sits with Liberal

Since
2026-04-13
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
50.7
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 66.3%
  • Conservative 15.6%
  • NDP 6.8%
  • Green 2.8%
  • PPC 1.3%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative NDP Green
HereScarborough Southwest 66.3%15.6%6.8%2.8%
Provincial averageOntario 45.6% +20.7 37.5% −21.9 6.4% +0.4 1.6% +1.1
National averageCanada 41.9% +24.4 34.8% −19.2 14.2% −7.4 2.1% +0.7

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
30.8 pts
Turnout
63.3%
Margin shift vs current projection
+19.9 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Bill Blair Elected Liberal 33,495 61.5 Parliamentarian
Asm Tarun Conservative 16,652 30.6 Family Physician
Fatima Shaban NDP 2,730 5.0 Administrative Coordinator
Amanda Cain Green 754 1.4 Communications Consultant
Michael Poulin PPC 567 1.0 IT Project Manager
Imran Khan Other 165 0.3 Broker of Record
Christine Nugent Other 113 0.2 College Instructor

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Anglophone 73.1%
  • Non-francophone (other) 26.9%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46