Riding profile
Beaches--East York
The question
Beaches--East York: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?
Current forecast
Liberal
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 33.9
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Liberal | NDP | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereBeaches--East York | 56.8% | 23.0% | 10.0% | 2.6% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 49.1% +7.8 | 4.8% +18.2 | 35.3% −25.3 | 2.0% +0.6 |
| National averageCanada | 48.0% +8.8 | 10.6% +12.4 | 32.1% −22.1 | 2.7% −0.1 |
Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Beaches--East York, an urban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 44-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 57% vote share, against 23% for the NDP, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 1% francophone, 86% anglophone.
Sitting member
Nathaniel Erskine-Smith
Sits with Liberal
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · FED 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Erskine-Smith Elected | Liberal | 39,804 | 67.7 | Parliamentarian |
| Jocelyne Poirier | Conservative | 13,830 | 23.5 | Director of Finance |
| Shannon Devine | NDP | 4,027 | 6.9 | Communications Director |
| Jack Pennings | Green | 748 | 1.3 | Software Developer |
| Diane Joseph | Independent | 161 | 0.3 | Social Service Worker |
| Elizabeth Rowley | Other | 146 | 0.2 | Federal Political Party Leader |
| Steve Rutchinski | Other | 39 | 0.1 | Post-Secondary Education Administrator |
Demographics
Who lives here
Linguistic profile
- Francophone 0.9%
- Anglophone 85.5%
- Non-francophone (other) 13.6%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
fed_46