Niagara West
Federal riding · Ontario · Southwestern Ontario
Forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservative Party a 61% chance of winning, with an average lead of 1.3 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 100%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Liberal | NDP | PPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Niagara West | 42.9% | 42.4% | 3.8% | 2.4% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 34.5%+8.4 | 48.3%−5.9 | 5.0%−1.3 | 2.3%+0.1 |
| National averageCanada | 30.4%+12.5 | 46.8%−4.4 | 11.2%−7.4 | 2.7%−0.3 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Dean Allison · Conservative
Previous election (2025)
The Conservative Party won by 8.5 points, with 75.8% turnout.
Our current projection: the Conservative Party ahead by 1.3 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dean Allison Elected | Conservative | 36,418 | 51.5 | Parliamentarian |
| Jennifer Korstanje | Liberal | 30,424 | 43.0 | Student |
| Justin Abando | NDP | 2,262 | 3.2 | Student |
| Dave Bylsma | Other | 727 | 1.0 | Door Manufacturer |
| Ryan Anderson | PPC | 582 | 0.8 | Executive Director |
| Other candidates | 343 | 0.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- St. Catharines Liberal, safe seat
- Niagara South Liberal, toss-up
- Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-Lake Liberal, toss-up
- Hamilton East—Stoney Creek Liberal, competitive
- Hamilton Mountain Liberal, safe seat
- Hamilton Centre Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated