Riding profile

Niagara West

Federal riding — ON · Suburban · southwestern on

The question

Niagara West: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Conservative

Toss-up

Probability
61%
Mean margin (pts)
1.4
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 43.7%
  • Liberal 43.1%
  • NDP 3.5%
  • PPC 1.2%
  • Green 0.8%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Liberal NDP PPC
HereNiagara West 43.7%43.1%3.5%1.2%
Provincial averageOntario 35.3% +8.4 49.1% −5.9 4.8% −1.3 1.1% +0.1
National averageCanada 32.1% +11.6 48.0% −4.9 10.6% −7.1 1.0% +0.2

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Niagara West, a suburban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 8-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservative Party ahead at 44% vote share, against 43% for the Liberal Party, and the race could swing. Linguistic profile: 0% francophone, 96% anglophone.

Sitting member

Dean Allison

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
8.5 pts
Turnout
75.8%
Margin shift vs current projection
-7.1 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Dean Allison Elected Conservative 36,418 51.7 Parliamentarian
Jennifer Korstanje Liberal 30,424 43.2 Student
Justin Abando NDP 2,262 3.2 Student
Dave Bylsma Other 727 1.0 Door Manufacturer
Ryan Anderson PPC 582 0.8 Executive Director

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 0.3%
  • Anglophone 95.8%
  • Non-francophone (other) 3.9%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46