Riding profile

Niagara Falls--Niagara-on-the-Lake

Federal riding — ON · Suburban · southwestern on

The question

Niagara Falls--Niagara-on-the-Lake: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Liberal

Toss-up

Probability
98%
Mean margin (pts)
3.7
P(close race)
76%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 44.7%
  • Conservative 41.0%
  • NDP 3.6%
  • Green 1.7%
  • PPC 1.2%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative NDP Green
HereNiagara Falls--Niagara-on-the-Lake 44.7%41.0%3.6%1.7%
Provincial averageOntario 49.1% −4.4 35.3% +5.7 4.8% −1.2 2.0% −0.3
National averageCanada 48.0% −3.3 32.1% +8.9 10.6% −7.0 2.7% −1.0

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Niagara Falls--Niagara-on-the-Lake, a suburban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 4-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 45% vote share, against 41% for the Conservative Party, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Tony Baldinelli

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
4.2 pts
Turnout
67.0%
Margin shift vs current projection
-0.5 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Tony Baldinelli Elected Conservative 29,774 49.1 Parliamentarian
Andrea Kaiser Liberal 27,199 44.9 Winemaker
Shannon Mitchell NDP 2,335 3.9 Constituency Assistant
Celia Taylor Green 518 0.9 Legal Information Specialist
Dinah Althorpe PPC 481 0.8 Student
Daniel Shakhmundes Other 160 0.3 Chief Technology Officer
Yawar Anwar Other 128 0.2 Real Estate Agent

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Anglophone 89.1%
  • Non-francophone (other) 10.9%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46