Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-Lake

Federal riding · Ontario · Southwestern Ontario

Forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 3.8 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 78%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Thin vertical mark: 2025 result.

	Liberal	Conservative	NDP	PPC
Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-Lake	43.9%	40.2%	3.9%	2.4%
Provincial averageOntario	48.3%−4.4	34.5%+5.7	5.0%−1.1	2.3%+0.1
National averageCanada	46.8%−2.9	30.4%+9.8	11.2%−7.3	2.7%−0.3

Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.

Projection track

Language spoken most often at home	English 89.1% Other languages (French included) 10.9%

Source: Statistics Canada, 2021 Census (single responses)

Tony Baldinelli · Conservative

In office since April 28, 2025. 45th Parliament.

The Conservative Party won by 4.2 points, with 67.1% turnout.

Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 3.8 points.

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	Occupation
Tony Baldinelli Elected	Conservative	29,774	48.8	Parliamentarian
Andrea Kaiser	Liberal	27,199	44.5	Winemaker
Shannon Mitchell	NDP	2,335	3.8	Constituency Assistant
Celia Taylor	Green	518	0.8	Legal Information Specialist
Dinah Althorpe	PPC	481	0.8	Student
Daniel Shakhmundes	Other	160	0.3	Chief Technology Officer
Yawar Anwar	Other	128	0.2	Real Estate Agent
Other candidates		467	0.8

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Watch list

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.