Riding profile

Oakville West

Federal riding — ON · Suburban · toronto suburbs peel halton

The question

Oakville West: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
16.5
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 52.9%
  • Conservative 36.3%
  • NDP 3.2%
  • Green 1.4%
  • PPC 0.8%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative NDP Green
HereOakville West 52.9%36.3%3.2%1.4%
Provincial averageOntario 49.1% +3.8 35.3% +1.1 4.8% −1.6 2.0% −0.5
National averageCanada 48.0% +4.9 32.1% +4.2 10.6% −7.4 2.7% −1.3

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Oakville West, a suburban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 9-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 53% vote share, against 36% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Sima Acan

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
8.6 pts
Turnout
74.5%
Margin shift vs current projection
+7.9 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Sima Acan Elected Liberal 31,872 53.1 Engineering
Tim Crowder Conservative 26,668 44.4 Bank Executive
Diane Downey NDP 831 1.4 Game Developer
Chris Kowalchuk Green 363 0.6 Retired
JD Meaney PPC 254 0.4 Mortgage Agent
Martin Gegus Independent 55 0.1 IT Solutions Architect

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46