Riding profile

Mississauga Centre

Federal riding — ON · Suburban · toronto suburbs peel halton

The question

Mississauga Centre: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
19.8
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 53.5%
  • Conservative 33.7%
  • NDP 3.4%
  • PPC 1.5%
  • Green 0.8%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative NDP PPC
HereMississauga Centre 53.5%33.7%3.4%1.5%
Provincial averageOntario 49.1% +4.5 35.3% −1.5 4.8% −1.4 1.1% +0.4
National averageCanada 48.0% +5.5 32.1% +1.6 10.6% −7.3 1.0% +0.5

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Mississauga Centre, a suburban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 12-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 54% vote share, against 34% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Fares Al Soud

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
11.9 pts
Turnout
62.6%
Margin shift vs current projection
+7.9 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Fares Al Soud Elected Liberal 29,605 53.9 Unemployed
Muhammad Ishaq Conservative 23,010 41.9 Realtor
Brandon Nguyen NDP 1,502 2.7 Court Reporter
Gurdeep Wolosz PPC 602 1.1 Showroom Coordinator
Zulfiqar Ali Independent 257 0.5 Driver

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Anglophone 61.2%
  • Non-francophone (other) 38.8%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46