Riding profile

Mississauga--Erin Mills

Federal riding — ON · Suburban · toronto suburbs peel halton

The question

Mississauga--Erin Mills: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
23.6
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 55.4%
  • Conservative 31.9%
  • NDP 3.2%
  • PPC 1.6%
  • Green 1.5%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative NDP PPC
HereMississauga--Erin Mills 55.4%31.9%3.2%1.6%
Provincial averageOntario 49.1% +6.4 35.3% −3.4 4.8% −1.6 1.1% +0.5
National averageCanada 48.0% +7.4 32.1% −0.2 10.6% −7.4 1.0% +0.6

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Mississauga--Erin Mills, a suburban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 16-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 55% vote share, against 32% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Iqra Khalid

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
15.6 pts
Turnout
66.8%
Margin shift vs current projection
+7.9 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Iqra Khalid Elected Liberal 33,448 55.7 Parliamentarian
Milad Mikael Conservative 24,000 40.0 Self-Employed
Ehab Mustapha NDP 1,311 2.2 Innovation Advisor
Michael Bayer PPC 734 1.2 Wealth Advisor
Sulaiman Khan Green 367 0.6 Student
Michael Matulewicz Independent 179 0.3 Retired

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Anglophone 68.3%
  • Non-francophone (other) 31.7%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46