Riding profile

Central Newfoundland

Federal riding — NL · Rural · atlantic

The question

Central Newfoundland: a safe seat for the Conservative Party?

Editorial read

Central Newfoundland, a rural riding in Newfoundland and Labrador, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 10-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservative Party ahead at 48% vote share, against 41% for the Liberal Party, and the riding remains competitive. Linguistic profile: 0% francophone, 100% anglophone.

Sitting member

Clifford Small

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Conservative

Competitive

Probability
99%
Mean margin (pts)
6.3
P(close race)
30%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 47.8%
  • Liberal 41.5%
  • NDP 3.8%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Liberal NDP Green
HereCentral Newfoundland 47.8%41.5%3.8%0.5%
Provincial averageNewfoundland and Labrador 34.1% +13.7 51.6% −10.1 5.8% −1.9 0.5% −0.1
National averageCanada 34.8% +13.0 41.9% −0.4 14.2% −10.4 2.1% −1.7

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
10.4 pts
Turnout
64.2%
Margin shift vs current projection
-4.1 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Clifford Small Elected Conservative 21,975 54.1 Restauranteur
Lynette Powell Liberal 17,696 43.5 Family Physician
Darian Vincent NDP 965 2.4 Retail Worker

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 0.1%
  • Anglophone 99.5%
  • Non-francophone (other) 0.4%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46