Riding profile
Central Newfoundland
The question
Central Newfoundland: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
Conservative
Toss-up
- Probability
- 57%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 1.4
- P(close race)
- 100%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Conservative | Liberal | NDP | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereCentral Newfoundland | 45.3% | 45.0% | 2.2% | 0.8% |
| Provincial averageNewfoundland and Labrador | 31.9% +13.5 | 56.0% −11.1 | 3.8% −1.7 | 0.8% −0.1 |
| National averageCanada | 32.1% +13.2 | 48.0% −3.0 | 10.6% −8.4 | 2.7% −2.0 |
Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Central Newfoundland, a rural riding in Newfoundland and Labrador, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 10-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservative Party ahead at 45% vote share, against 45% for the Liberal Party, and the race could swing. Linguistic profile: 0% francophone, 100% anglophone.
Sitting member
Clifford Small
Sits with Conservative
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · FED 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clifford Small Elected | Conservative | 21,975 | 54.1 | Restauranteur |
| Lynette Powell | Liberal | 17,696 | 43.5 | Family Physician |
| Darian Vincent | NDP | 965 | 2.4 | Retail Worker |
Demographics
Who lives here
Linguistic profile
- Francophone 0.1%
- Anglophone 99.5%
- Non-francophone (other) 0.4%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
fed_46