Riding profile

St. John's East

Federal riding — NL · Urban · atlantic

The question

St. John's East: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Editorial read

St. John's East, an urban riding in Newfoundland and Labrador, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 36-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 61% vote share, against 20% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 0% francophone, 96% anglophone.

Sitting member

Joanne Thompson

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
41.0
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 60.8%
  • Conservative 19.7%
  • NDP 11.2%
  • Green 0.8%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative NDP Green
HereSt. John's East 60.8%19.7%11.2%0.8%
Provincial averageNewfoundland and Labrador 51.6% +9.2 34.1% −14.4 5.8% +5.4 0.5% +0.2
National averageCanada 41.9% +18.9 34.8% −15.1 14.2% −3.0 2.1% −1.3

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
36.0 pts
Turnout
70.0%
Margin shift vs current projection
+5.0 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Joanne Thompson Elected Liberal 28,681 62.3 Parliamentarian
David Brazil Conservative 11,941 25.9 Managing Partner - Small Business
Mary Shortall NDP 5,172 11.2 Retired
Otis Crandell Green 159 0.3 Academic Researcher
Samuel Crête Other 98 0.2 Residential Counsellor

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 0.4%
  • Anglophone 95.7%
  • Non-francophone (other) 3.9%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46