Riding profile

St. John's East

Federal riding — NL · Urban · atlantic

The question

St. John's East: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
49.1
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 66.9%
  • Conservative 17.8%
  • NDP 8.7%
  • Green 1.1%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative NDP Green
HereSt. John's East 66.9%17.8%8.7%1.1%
Provincial averageNewfoundland and Labrador 56.0% +10.9 31.9% −14.1 3.8% +4.9 0.8% +0.2
National averageCanada 48.0% +18.9 32.1% −14.3 10.6% −1.9 2.7% −1.6

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

St. John's East, an urban riding in Newfoundland and Labrador, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 36-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 67% vote share, against 18% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 0% francophone, 96% anglophone.

Sitting member

Joanne Thompson

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
36.0 pts
Turnout
70.0%
Margin shift vs current projection
+13.1 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Joanne Thompson Elected Liberal 28,681 62.3 Parliamentarian
David Brazil Conservative 11,941 25.9 Managing Partner - Small Business
Mary Shortall NDP 5,172 11.2 Retired
Otis Crandell Green 159 0.3 Academic Researcher
Samuel Crête Other 98 0.2 Residential Counsellor

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 0.4%
  • Anglophone 95.7%
  • Non-francophone (other) 3.9%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46