Riding profile
St. John's East
The question
St. John's East: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?
Current forecast
Liberal
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 49.1
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereSt. John's East | 66.9% | 17.8% | 8.7% | 1.1% |
| Provincial averageNewfoundland and Labrador | 56.0% +10.9 | 31.9% −14.1 | 3.8% +4.9 | 0.8% +0.2 |
| National averageCanada | 48.0% +18.9 | 32.1% −14.3 | 10.6% −1.9 | 2.7% −1.6 |
Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
St. John's East, an urban riding in Newfoundland and Labrador, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 36-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 67% vote share, against 18% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 0% francophone, 96% anglophone.
Sitting member
Joanne Thompson
Sits with Liberal
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · FED 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joanne Thompson Elected | Liberal | 28,681 | 62.3 | Parliamentarian |
| David Brazil | Conservative | 11,941 | 25.9 | Managing Partner - Small Business |
| Mary Shortall | NDP | 5,172 | 11.2 | Retired |
| Otis Crandell | Green | 159 | 0.3 | Academic Researcher |
| Samuel Crête | Other | 98 | 0.2 | Residential Counsellor |
Demographics
Who lives here
Linguistic profile
- Francophone 0.4%
- Anglophone 95.7%
- Non-francophone (other) 3.9%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
fed_46