Riding profile

Long Range Mountains

Federal riding — NL · Rural · atlantic

The question

Long Range Mountains: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Liberal

Toss-up

Probability
92%
Mean margin (pts)
2.6
P(close race)
94%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 44.3%
  • Conservative 41.8%
  • NDP 2.7%
  • PPC 1.1%
  • Green 0.8%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative NDP PPC
HereLong Range Mountains 44.3%41.8%2.7%1.1%
Provincial averageNewfoundland and Labrador 56.0% −11.8 31.9% +9.9 3.8% −1.2 0.4% +0.8
National averageCanada 48.0% −3.7 32.1% +9.7 10.6% −7.9 1.0% +0.1

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Long Range Mountains, a rural riding in Newfoundland and Labrador, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 8-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 44% vote share, against 42% for the Conservative Party, and the race could swing. Linguistic profile: 0% francophone, 99% anglophone.

Sitting member

Carol Anstey

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
7.5 pts
Turnout
65.0%
Margin shift vs current projection
-4.9 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Carol Anstey Elected Conservative 23,232 50.3 Real Estate Broker
Don Bradshaw Liberal 19,726 42.7 Retired
Sarah Parsons NDP 2,011 4.4 Child and Youth Worker
Robbie Coles Independent 637 1.4 Offshore Oil and Gas Coordinator
Pamela Geiger PPC 537 1.2 Author

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 0.1%
  • Anglophone 99.4%
  • Non-francophone (other) 0.5%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46