Riding profile
Terra Nova--The Peninsulas
The question
Terra Nova--The Peninsulas: will Conservative lose this seat to Liberal?
Current forecast
Liberal
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 10.0
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereTerra Nova--The Peninsulas | 48.9% | 38.9% | 2.6% | 0.8% |
| Provincial averageNewfoundland and Labrador | 56.0% −7.1 | 31.9% +7.1 | 3.8% −1.2 | 0.8% −0.1 |
| National averageCanada | 48.0% +0.9 | 32.1% +6.8 | 10.6% −8.0 | 2.7% −2.0 |
Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Terra Nova--The Peninsulas, a rural riding in Newfoundland and Labrador, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 49% vote share, against 39% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 0% francophone, 100% anglophone.
Sitting member
Jonathan Rowe
Sits with Conservative
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · FED 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Rowe Elected | Conservative | 19,605 | 48.0 | Engineer |
| Anthony Germain | Liberal | 19,593 | 47.9 | Teacher |
| Liam Ryan | NDP | 1,677 | 4.1 | Student |
Demographics
Who lives here
Linguistic profile
- Francophone 0.1%
- Anglophone 99.7%
- Non-francophone (other) 0.2%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
fed_46