Riding profile

Terra Nova--The Peninsulas

Federal riding — NL · Rural · atlantic

The question

Terra Nova--The Peninsulas: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Terra Nova--The Peninsulas, a rural riding in Newfoundland and Labrador, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 45% vote share, against 41% for the Conservative Party, and the race could swing. Linguistic profile: 0% francophone, 100% anglophone.

Sitting member

Jonathan Rowe

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Liberal

Toss-up

Probability
95%
Mean margin (pts)
4.2
P(close race)
65%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 45.4%
  • Conservative 41.3%
  • NDP 4.3%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative NDP Green
HereTerra Nova--The Peninsulas 45.4%41.3%4.3%0.5%
Provincial averageNewfoundland and Labrador 51.6% −6.1 34.1% +7.3 5.8% −1.5 0.5% −0.1
National averageCanada 41.9% +3.5 34.8% +6.5 14.2% −9.9 2.1% −1.7

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
0.0 pts
Turnout
64.4%
Margin shift vs current projection
+4.1 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Jonathan Rowe Elected Conservative 19,605 48.0 Engineer
Anthony Germain Liberal 19,593 47.9 Teacher
Liam Ryan NDP 1,677 4.1 Student

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 0.1%
  • Anglophone 99.7%
  • Non-francophone (other) 0.2%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46