U.S. House
Leading: Democratic, with 241 of 435 projected seats and a 98% chance of a majority.
The first polls close on Tuesday, November 3 at 7 p.m. Eastern. Results will appear here on their own, no need to reload the page.
Seat forecast
| Party | Projected seats | Range | Chance of a majority |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | 241 | 227–269 | 98% |
| Republican | 194 | 166–208 | 2% |
218 seats for a majority, out of 435 · 713 polls, 50,000 simulations
Democrats · Polymarket : 95%
Median of the 50,000 simulations: Democratic 246 · Republican 189. The large figures count the seats where each party is favoured. The median also counts its chances where it is not; it is the figure most models show, including The Economist. When a wave is building, it runs higher than the first.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
Current House Composition
Seats — 435 total
- Republican 218
- Democratic 214
- Vacant 3
Projected vote share
| Party | Vote | 7-day change | Chance of finishing first |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | 54.9% | +1.4 pts | 98% |
| Republican | 44.8% | −0.1 pts | 2% |
Prediction markets · Kalshi
What Kalshi traders are paying
Live prices from the Kalshi elections exchange, shown beside our projection. These prices do not enter our projection.
Congress balance of power
US$77M open interest- Democrats sweep73%
- D House, R Senate24%
- Republicans sweep5.9%
- R House, D Senate0.7%
House popular vote margin
US$3M open interest- Democrats, 8 to 10%28%
- Democrats, 10 to 12%25%
- Democrats, 6 to 8%14%
- Democrats, 12 to 14%14%
- Democrats, 14 to 16%7%
- Democrats, 4 to 6%6.4%
- Republicans win5.1%
- Democrats, 16% and above3.5%
- Democrats, 2 to 4%2.3%
- Democrats, 0 to 2%1.4%
Kalshi prices as of November 2, 2026 · Probability implied by the last traded price, or the midpoint between bid and ask when a contract has not traded.
Analysis
Vote intention
Raw polls (dots) and model estimate (diamonds) with 95% confidence interval.
Scenario probabilities
Across 50,000 simulations of the election.
District map
Colour shows the leading party; the shade, how settled the race is.
All districts
All 435 districts, sortable by leading party, margin and chance.
| District | State | Leading | Vote | Margin | Chance | vs 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ-2 | AZ | Democratic | 50.5% | 5.7 pts | 55% | Republican → Democratic |
| VA-1 | VA | Republican | 50.4% | 5.7 pts | 55% | Hold |
| MI-4 | MI | Republican | 50.5% | 5.8 pts | 56% | Hold |
| KY-6 | KY | Democratic | 49.8% | 5.8 pts | 51% | Republican → Democratic |
| WI-1 | WI | Democratic | 50.0% | 5.8 pts | 51% | Republican → Democratic |
| PA-1 | PA | Republican | 50.9% | 5.9 pts | 60% | Hold |
| MO-2 | MO | Democratic | 50.0% | 5.9 pts | 52% | Republican → Democratic |
| CO-5 | CO | Republican | 50.0% | 5.9 pts | 57% | Hold |
| ME-2 | ME | Democratic | 50.3% | 5.9 pts | 55% | Hold |
| MT-1 | MT | Democratic | 50.1% | 5.9 pts | 56% | Republican → Democratic |
| NY-1 | NY | Democratic | 46.5% | 6.0 pts | 59% | Republican → Democratic |
| AZ-8 | AZ | Republican | 51.2% | 6.0 pts | 64% | Hold |
| IA-2 | IA | Democratic | 51.0% | 6.0 pts | 61% | Republican → Democratic |
| CO-4 | CO | Republican | 49.4% | 6.1 pts | 63% | Hold |
| SC-1 | SC | Republican | 51.3% | 6.2 pts | 66% | Hold |
| CO-3 | CO | Democratic | 51.3% | 6.4 pts | 68% | Republican → Democratic |
| MN-1 | MN | Republican | 51.7% | 6.4 pts | 69% | Hold |
| VA-5 | VA | Republican | 51.5% | 6.4 pts | 70% | Hold |
| NY-2 | NY | Republican | 45.7% | 6.5 pts | 69% | Hold |
| FL-13 | FL | Republican | 50.0% | 6.5 pts | 53% | Hold |
| OH-15 | OH | Republican | 50.6% | 6.6 pts | 56% | Hold |
| FL-9 | FL | Democratic | 50.4% | 6.6 pts | 55% | Republican → Democratic |
| TX-15 | TX | Democratic | 50.3% | 6.6 pts | 53% | Republican → Democratic |
| FL-22 | FL | Democratic | 50.4% | 6.6 pts | 54% | Republican → Democratic |
| TX-35 | TX | Democratic | 50.0% | 6.6 pts | 51% | Republican → Democratic |
| WI-8 | WI | Republican | 52.1% | 6.6 pts | 72% | Hold |
| CA-40 | CA | Republican | 50.6% | 6.6 pts | 56% | Hold |
| FL-7 | FL | Republican | 50.6% | 6.7 pts | 56% | Hold |
| TX-23 | TX | Republican | 50.8% | 6.8 pts | 58% | Hold |
| AL-2 | AL | Republican | 51.3% | 6.8 pts | 62% | Democratic → Republican |
| GA-1 | GA | Republican | 52.2% | 6.8 pts | 73% | Hold |
| NY-17 | NY | Democratic | 50.0% | 6.8 pts | 73% | Republican → Democratic |
| FL-16 | FL | Republican | 51.1% | 6.9 pts | 61% | Hold |
| MI-10 | MI | Democratic | 51.5% | 6.9 pts | 73% | Republican → Democratic |
| NC-3 | NC | Republican | 51.3% | 6.9 pts | 63% | Hold |
| NV-2 | NV | Republican | 51.5% | 6.9 pts | 65% | Hold |
| AR-2 | AR | Republican | 52.4% | 7.0 pts | 76% | Hold |
| NJ-7 | NJ | Democratic | 52.4% | 7.0 pts | 75% | Republican → Democratic |
| FL-25 | FL | Democratic | 51.5% | 7.0 pts | 65% | Hold |
| VA-2 | VA | Democratic | 52.4% | 7.1 pts | 75% | Republican → Democratic |
| NC-11 | NC | Democratic | 51.8% | 7.2 pts | 67% | Republican → Democratic |
| FL-11 | FL | Republican | 51.8% | 7.2 pts | 67% | Hold |
| FL-4 | FL | Republican | 52.0% | 7.2 pts | 69% | Hold |
| PA-10 | PA | Democratic | 52.7% | 7.3 pts | 78% | Republican → Democratic |
| NC-1 | NC | Democratic | 51.9% | 7.3 pts | 69% | Hold |
| NY-21 | NY | Republican | 49.4% | 7.3 pts | 77% | Hold |
| MN-8 | MN | Republican | 52.7% | 7.3 pts | 78% | Hold |
| NE-1 | NE | Republican | 52.7% | 7.3 pts | 78% | Hold |
| IA-3 | IA | Democratic | 52.8% | 7.4 pts | 79% | Republican → Democratic |
| MI-7 | MI | Democratic | 52.5% | 7.4 pts | 78% | Republican → Democratic |
Can either party build a durable House majority in a nationalized midterm?
The national mood sets the field, but control is won district by district: retirements, recruitment and a small set of suburban seats can outweigh a modest polling lead.
How we got here
For several elections, the House majority has come down to a handful of seats. Redistricting reduced the number of truly elastic districts, making candidate quality and local turnout unusually consequential.
The projection moves with every poll; the seat range says more than any national average.
What can still change the race
- Candidate fields and retirements in competitive districts.
- A sustained movement in the generic ballot rather than a one-day reaction.
- Turnout and persuasion gaps across suburban, Latino and working-class districts.