U.S. House
VOTE-SCOPE FORECAST · PROPRIETARY PROJECTION · EXCLUSIVE ADJUSTMENTS
RACE BOARD · RUN 2026-07-15
Democratic lead by 5 seats. The market is more bullish.
651 polls · 50,000 simulations · our exclusive read of the race
Current House Composition
Seats — 435 total
- Republican 218
- Democratic 214
- Vacant 3
Seat projection
Democratic ▲ +0.9 - Vote
- 51.7%
- P(majority)
- 71%
- P(largest)
- 71%
Republican ▲ +2.6 - Vote
- 48.1%
- P(majority)
- 29%
- P(largest)
- 29%
Analysis
Vote intention
Raw polls (dots) and model estimate (diamonds) with 95% confidence interval.
Scenario probabilities
Probability of winning a majority or finishing strictly first, across the 50,000 Monte Carlo simulations.
The race question
Can either party build a durable House majority in a nationalized midterm?
The national mood sets the field, but control is won district by district: retirements, recruitment and a small set of suburban seats can outweigh a modest polling lead.
How we got here
How we got here
The House has spent several cycles on a narrow knife-edge. Redistricting reduced the number of truly elastic districts, making candidate quality and local turnout unusually consequential.
Read the projection as today’s map of uncertainty—not a forecast frozen until election day. The seat distribution matters more than any single headline average.
What just changed
What just changed
15 JUL 2026
220–215: control fits inside five seats
The model gives Democrats a 71.4% path to 218 while Polymarket prices Democratic control at 85.5%. The disagreement is the story: the market sees a wave; the district model still sees a knife-edge.
Our read: Live model and market comparison. Market prices remain external.
What can still change the race
What can still change the race
- Candidate fields and retirements in competitive districts.
- A sustained movement in the generic ballot rather than a one-day reaction.
- Turnout and persuasion gaps across suburban, Latino and working-class districts.
Riding map
Color = projected leading party. Hover a riding for details.
All ridings
Sort and filter the 435 ridings by projected winning party, margin and probability.
| Riding | Prov. | Projection | Vote% | Margin | P(win) | vs 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PA-3 | PA | Democratic | 100.0% | 99.9% | 100% | Hold |
| WA-9 | WA | Democratic | 99.9% | 99.9% | 100% | Hold |
| KY-5 | KY | Republican | 96.1% | 92.2% | 100% | Hold |
| MS-3 | MS | Republican | 96.1% | 92.2% | 100% | Hold |
| OK-3 | OK | Republican | 96.1% | 92.2% | 100% | Hold |
| IL-16 | IL | Republican | 96.1% | 92.2% | 100% | Hold |
| KY-4 | KY | Republican | 96.1% | 92.2% | 100% | Hold |
| IL-15 | IL | Republican | 96.1% | 92.1% | 100% | Hold |
| WA-4 | WA | Republican | 95.9% | 91.9% | 100% | Hold |
| MD-4 | MD | Democratic | 90.7% | 81.3% | 100% | Hold |
| CA-12 | CA | Democratic | 90.6% | 81.2% | 100% | Hold |
| GA-5 | GA | Democratic | 87.7% | 75.4% | 100% | Hold |
| CA-11 | CA | Democratic | 87.2% | 74.3% | 100% | Hold |
| WA-7 | WA | Democratic | 86.3% | 72.5% | 100% | Hold |
| IL-7 | IL | Democratic | 85.1% | 70.3% | 100% | Hold |
| MA-7 | MA | Democratic | 84.8% | 69.5% | 100% | Hold |
| MD-7 | MD | Democratic | 84.5% | 69.1% | 100% | Hold |
| NY-13 | NY | Democratic | 79.4% | 67.9% | 100% | Hold |
| NY-10 | NY | Democratic | 78.1% | 66.3% | 100% | Hold |
| CA-37 | CA | Democratic | 83.0% | 66.1% | 100% | Hold |
| MO-1 | MO | Democratic | 81.6% | 63.1% | 100% | Hold |
| MD-8 | MD | Democratic | 81.0% | 62.4% | 100% | Hold |
| TX-37 | TX | Democratic | 81.0% | 62.1% | 100% | Hold |
| CO-1 | CO | Democratic | 80.3% | 60.7% | 100% | Hold |
| OH-11 | OH | Democratic | 79.9% | 59.8% | 100% | Hold |
| AL-4 | AL | Republican | 79.3% | 58.7% | 100% | Hold |
| TX-18 | TX | Democratic | 79.2% | 58.5% | 100% | Hold |
| WI-4 | WI | Democratic | 79.0% | 58.4% | 100% | Hold |
| NJ-10 | NJ | Democratic | 78.7% | 58.3% | 100% | Hold |
| NY-15 | NY | Democratic | 73.5% | 58.0% | 100% | Hold |
| NY-12 | NY | Democratic | 74.9% | 57.9% | 100% | Hold |
| CA-34 | CA | Democratic | 78.8% | 57.7% | 100% | Hold |
| MA-5 | MA | Democratic | 78.5% | 57.0% | 100% | Hold |
| GA-4 | GA | Democratic | 78.0% | 55.9% | 100% | Hold |
| NY-8 | NY | Democratic | 74.0% | 55.7% | 100% | Hold |
| CA-43 | CA | Democratic | 77.7% | 55.4% | 100% | Hold |
| MN-5 | MN | Democratic | 77.6% | 55.2% | 100% | Hold |
| NE-3 | NE | Republican | 77.2% | 54.3% | 100% | Hold |
| NY-9 | NY | Democratic | 72.7% | 54.2% | 100% | Hold |
| GA-6 | GA | Democratic | 77.1% | 54.2% | 100% | Hold |
| CA-16 | CA | Democratic | 77.1% | 54.1% | 100% | Hold |
| CA-15 | CA | Democratic | 77.0% | 54.0% | 100% | Hold |
| VA-8 | VA | Democratic | 75.8% | 53.0% | 100% | Hold |
| MA-3 | MA | Democratic | 76.0% | 52.0% | 100% | Hold |
| NY-5 | NY | Democratic | 73.4% | 52.0% | 100% | Hold |
| MA-6 | MA | Democratic | 75.8% | 51.6% | 100% | Hold |
| TX-30 | TX | Democratic | 75.8% | 51.5% | 100% | Hold |
| TN-1 | TN | Republican | 75.8% | 51.5% | 100% | Hold |
| LA-2 | LA | Democratic | 75.7% | 51.4% | 100% | Hold |
| NC-12 | NC | Democratic | 75.3% | 50.7% | 100% | Hold |