Riding profile
FL-13
The question
FL-13: a safe seat for the Republicans?
Editorial read
FL-13, a mixed riding in FL, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 16-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 53% vote share, against 47% for the Democrats, and the riding remains competitive.
Sitting member
PAULINA LUNA, ANNA
Sits with Republican
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
-
Republican Incumbent Paulina Luna, Anna
-
Democrat Challenger Ford, Earle
- Democrat Challenger
Gray, Leela J
- Democrat Challenger
Kemp, Karla
- Democrat Challenger
Liccione, John William
- Democrat Challenger
Paros, Reginald
- Democrat Challenger
Robinson, Timothy Brandt Mr
Current forecast
Republican
Competitive
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 6.0
- P(close race)
- 27%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| HereFL-13 | 53.0% | 47.0% |
| National averageUnited States | 46.6% +6.4 | 51.9% −4.9 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
District polls
Polls in this district
1 poll
| Pollster | Field dates | Sample | Pop. | Topline | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | 19–May 20 | 616 | RV | link |
District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.
Previous election · US HOUSE_2024
Redistricting impact
Where these voters came from
This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:
- Congressional District 13
(12013)73% - Congressional District 12
(12012)17% - Congressional District 14
(12014)10%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026