Riding profile

FL-13

US House district — FL · Mixed · us fl

The question

FL-13: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Republican

Toss-up

Probability
80%
Mean margin (pts)
1.3
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 50.0%
  • Democrat 49.0%

    Leela J Gray

  • Other 0.9%

    Tony C D'Arrigo IND

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat Other
HereFL-13 50.0%49.0%0.9%
National averageUnited States 44.9% +5.1 54.3% −5.3 5.1% −4.2

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

District polls

Polls in this district

6 polls

Pollster Field dates Sample Pop. Topline Source
Hart Research Associates House Majority PAC 25–Aug 27 — LV
Democrat 49 Republican 44
link
Hart Research Associates House Majority PAC 25–Aug 27 — LV
Democrat 44 Republican 43
link
Hart Research Associates House Majority PAC 25–Aug 27 — LV
Democrat 51 Republican 46
link
Gqr 4–Aug 6 500 LV
Republican 47 Democrat 44
link
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates 4–Aug 6 400 LV
Republican 49 Democrat 41
link
Public Policy Polling 19–May 20 616 RV
Republican 41 Democrat 39
link

District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.

Editorial read

FL-13, a mixed riding in FL, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 16-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 50% vote share, against 49% for the Democrats, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

PAULINA LUNA, ANNA

Sits with Republican

Primary race

Primary results

Held Aug 18, 2026 · Official count — not yet certified

Democratic primary

Winner

Leela Gray 65.0%

32,691 votes

Official source →

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Challenger

    Gray, Leela J

  • Other Challenger

    D'Arrigo, Tony C

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
15.8 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-14.5 pts

Redistricting impact

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:

  • Congressional District 13 (12013) 73%
  • Congressional District 12 (12012) 17%
  • Congressional District 14 (12014) 10%

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026