Florida’s 13th District

U.S. House · FL-13

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives the Republicans a 53% chance of winning, with an average lead of 6.5 points.

Toss-up. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 48%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Republican 50.0%

Anna Paulina Luna, incumbent
Democrat 49.4%

Leela Gray
Other 0.6%

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 54% chance (53% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Republican	53%
Orbit	Republican	54%
50/50 blend	Republican	54%

Figures as of November 2, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Republican	Democrat	Other
FL-13	50.0%	49.4%	0.6%
National averageUnited States	43.9%+6.1	54.9%−5.5	1.2%−0.7

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

5 polls, 7 scenarios

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source
Public Policy Polling House Majority PAC	14–Oct 15, 2026	—	likely voters	Leela Gray (D) 47 Anna Paulina Luna (R) 46	See the poll
Hart Research Associates House Majority PAC Scenario 1	25–Aug 27, 2026	—	likely voters	Generic Democrat (D) 49 Generic Republican (R) 44	See the poll
Hart Research Associates House Majority PAC Scenario 2	25–Aug 27, 2026	—	likely voters	Leela Gray (D) 44 Anna Paulina Luna (R) 43 Tony D’Arrigo (Ind.) 7	See the poll
Hart Research Associates House Majority PAC Scenario 3	25–Aug 27, 2026	—	likely voters	Leela Gray (D) 51 Anna Paulina Luna (R) 46	See the poll
Gqr	4–Aug 6, 2026	500	likely voters	Anna Paulina Luna (R) 47 Leela Gray (D) 44 Tony D’Arrigo (Ind.) 4	See the poll
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates	4–Aug 6, 2026	400	likely voters	Anna Paulina Luna (R) 49 Leela Gray (D) 41	See the poll
Public Policy Polling	19–May 20, 2026	616	registered voters	Anna Paulina Luna (R) 41 Leela Gray (D) 39	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Current member

Anna Paulina Luna · Republican

Primary results

Held August 18, 2026 · Official source

Democratic primary	Leela Gray	65.0%	32,691 votes
Republican primary	Anna Paulina Luna	0.0%

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Republican Incumbent

Anna Paulina Luna
source
Democrat Challenger

Leela Gray
source
Other Challenger

D'Arrigo, Tony C

General-election qualification remains to be verified.

Previous election (2024)

The Republicans won by 15.8 points.

Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 6.5 points.

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn in the 2025-2026 redistricting. Share of its voters from each former district:

Former district 13 73%
Former district 12 17%
Former district 14 10%

Nearby districts

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

FL-12 Republican, competitive
FL-15 Republican, competitive
FL-14 Democrat, competitive
FL-16 Republican, toss-up
FL-11 Republican, toss-up
FL-18 Republican, competitive

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: November 2, 2026