Riding profile

FL-15

US House district — FL · Mixed · us fl

The question

FL-15: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

FL-15, a mixed riding in FL, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 37-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 57% vote share, against 43% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

LEE, LAUREL

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Lee, Laurel

  • Democrat Challenger

    Irizarry, Christopher

  • Democrat Challenger

    People, Robert

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
14.3
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 57.1%
  • Democrat 42.9%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereFL-15 57.1%42.9%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +10.5 51.9% −9.0

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
37.3 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-23.0 pts

Redistricting impact

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:

  • Congressional District 12 (12012) 84%
  • Congressional District 15 (12015) 14%

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026