Winner
Robert People 53.6%
Riding profile
FL-15
The question
FL-15: a safe seat for the Republicans?
Current forecast
Republican
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 9.0
- P(close race)
- 3%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| HereFL-15 | 54.5% | 45.5% |
| National averageUnited States | 44.9% +9.6 | 54.3% −8.8 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
FL-15, a mixed riding in FL, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 37-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 54% vote share, against 46% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
LEE, LAUREL
Sits with Republican
Primary race
Primary results
Held Aug 18, 2026 · Official count — not yet certified
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
-
Democrat Challenger People, Robert
Previous election · 2024
Redistricting impact
Where these voters came from
This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:
- Congressional District 12
(12012)84% - Congressional District 15
(12015)14%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026