Florida’s 15th District
U.S. House · FL-15
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Republicans a 89% chance of winning, with an average lead of 10.9 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 23%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 72% chance (89% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Republican | 89% |
| Orbit | Republican | 72% |
| 50/50 blend | Republican | 81% |
Compared with the average
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| FL-15 | 55.0% | 45.0% |
| National averageUnited States | 43.9%+11.1 | 54.9%−9.9 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Laurel Lee · Republican
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Robert People | 53.6% | 22,201 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Laurel Lee | 0.0% |
Republican 
Democrat Previous election (2024)
The Republicans won by 37.3 points.
Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 10.9 points.
Where these voters came from
This district was redrawn in the 2025-2026 redistricting. Share of its voters from each former district:
- Former district 12 84%
- Former district 15 14%
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated