Florida’s 10th District
U.S. House · FL-10
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Democrats a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 36.8 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Democrat, with a > 99% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Democrat | > 99% |
| Orbit | Democrat | > 99% |
| 50/50 blend | Democrat | > 99% |
Compared with the average
| Democrat | Republican | |
|---|---|---|
| FL-10 | 68.4% | 31.6% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.9%+13.5 | 43.9%−12.3 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Maxwell Frost · Democrat
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Maxwell Frost | 0.0% |
|---|
Who's running
The candidates
Candidates for the upcoming election.
-
Democrat Incumbent Maxwell Frost
source
Previous election (2024)
The Democrats won by 22.5 points.
Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 36.8 points.
Where these voters came from
This district was redrawn in the 2025-2026 redistricting. Share of its voters from each former district:
- Former district 10 71%
- Former district 11 16%
- Former district 9 13%
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated