Riding profile

FL-10

US House district — FL · Mixed · us fl

The question

FL-10: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
34.6
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 67.3%
  • Republican 32.7%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican
HereFL-10 67.3%32.7%
National averageUnited States 54.3% +13.0 44.9% −12.2

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

FL-10, a mixed riding in FL, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 23-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 67% vote share, against 33% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

FROST, MAXWELL ALEJANDRO

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Frost, Maxwell Alejandro

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
22.5 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+12.1 pts

Redistricting impact

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:

  • Congressional District 10 (12010) 71%
  • Congressional District 11 (12011) 16%
  • Congressional District 9 (12009) 13%

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026