Riding profile

FL-10

US House district — FL · Mixed · us fl

The question

FL-10: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Editorial read

FL-10, a mixed riding in FL, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 23-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 65% vote share, against 35% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

FROST, MAXWELL ALEJANDRO

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Frost, Maxwell Alejandro

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
29.0
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 64.5%
  • Republican 35.5%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican
HereFL-10 64.5%35.5%
National averageUnited States 51.9% +12.7 46.6% −11.2

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
22.5 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+6.5 pts

Redistricting impact

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:

  • Congressional District 10 (12010) 71%
  • Congressional District 11 (12011) 16%
  • Congressional District 9 (12009) 13%

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026