Riding profile

FL-6

US House district — FL · Mixed · us fl

The question

FL-6: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

FL-6, a mixed riding in FL, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 33-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 62% vote share, against 38% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Challenger

    Cooper, Robert David Mr II

  • Democrat Challenger

    Morgan, Steve

  • Democrat Challenger

    Murchinson-Rivera, Ronnie

  • Democrat Challenger

    Yonce, Eric

  • Republican Challenger

    Baker, Aaron

  • Republican Challenger

    Fine, Randy

  • Republican Challenger

    Furry, Will

  • Republican Challenger

    Gambaro, Charles

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
24.0
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 62.0%
  • Democrat 38.0%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereFL-6 62.0%38.0%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +15.4 51.9% −13.9

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
33.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-9.0 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026