Florida’s 6th District
U.S. House · FL-6
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Republicans a 98% chance of winning, with an average lead of 18.6 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 5%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 91% chance (98% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Republican | 98% |
| Orbit | Republican | 91% |
| 50/50 blend | Republican | 95% |
Compared with the average
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| FL-6 | 59.2% | 40.8% |
| National averageUnited States | 43.9%+15.3 | 54.9%−14.1 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Latino citizens aged 18 and over | 9.9% (± 0.4) |
|---|
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Eric Yonce | 32.1% | 13,461 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Randy Fine | 57.6% | 51,076 votes |
Democrat 
Republican Previous election (2024)
The Republicans won by 33.0 points.
Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 18.6 points.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated