Riding profile

FL-6

US House district — FL · Mixed · us fl

The question

FL-6: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
18.8
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 59.4%

    Randy Fine

  • Democrat 40.6%

    Eric Yonce

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereFL-6 59.4%40.6%
National averageUnited States 44.9% +14.5 54.3% −13.7

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

FL-6, a mixed riding in FL, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 33-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 59% vote share, against 41% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Primary race

Primary results

Held Aug 18, 2026 · Official count — not yet certified

Democratic primary

Winner

Eric Yonce 32.1%

13,461 votes

Republican primary

Winner

Randy Fine 57.6%

51,076 votes

Official source →

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Challenger

    Yonce, Eric

  • Other Challenger

    Gist, Michael

  • Republican Challenger

    Fine, Randy

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
33.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-14.2 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026