Riding profile

FL-3

US House district — FL · Mixed · us fl

The question

FL-3: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

FL-3, a mixed riding in FL, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 23-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 58% vote share, against 42% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

CAMMACK, KAT

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Cammack, Kat

  • Democrat Challenger

    Albers, Troy

  • Democrat Challenger

    Harp, Seth Allan

  • Democrat Challenger

    Wells, Thomas Beckwith

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
15.2
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 57.6%
  • Democrat 42.4%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereFL-3 57.6%42.4%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +10.9 51.9% −9.5

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
23.2 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-8.1 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026