Florida’s 3rd District
U.S. House · FL-3
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Republicans a 94% chance of winning, with an average lead of 12.9 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 16%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 75% chance (94% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Republican | 94% |
| Orbit | Republican | 75% |
| 50/50 blend | Republican | 84% |
Compared with the average
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| FL-3 | 56.2% | 43.8% |
| National averageUnited States | 43.9%+12.3 | 54.9%−11.1 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Latino citizens aged 18 and over | 10.4% (± 0.3) |
|---|
Current member
Kat Cammack · Republican
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Seth Harp | 45.2% | 20,653 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Kat Cammack | 0.0% |
Republican 
Democrat Previous election (2024)
The Republicans won by 23.2 points.
Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 12.9 points.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated