Riding profile

FL-12

US House district — FL · Mixed · us fl

The question

FL-12: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Republican

Toss-up

Probability
99%
Mean margin (pts)
4.5
P(close race)
60%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 52.3%
  • Democrat 47.7%

    Kimberly Overman

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereFL-12 52.3%47.7%
National averageUnited States 44.9% +7.3 54.3% −6.6

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

FL-12, a mixed riding in FL, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 35-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 52% vote share, against 48% for the Democrats, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

BILIRAKIS, GUS M

Sits with Republican

Primary race

Primary results

Held Aug 18, 2026 · Official count — not yet certified

Democratic primary

Winner

Kimberly Overman 52.7%

21,811 votes

Official source →

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Challenger

    Overman, Kimberly

  • Other Challenger

    Scrivener, Branden

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
35.1 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-30.6 pts

Redistricting impact

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:

  • Congressional District 12 (12012) 75%
  • Congressional District 14 (12014) 13%
  • Congressional District 15 (12015) 12%

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026