Riding profile

FL-12

US House district — FL · Mixed · us fl

The question

FL-12: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

FL-12, a mixed riding in FL, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 35-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 55% vote share, against 45% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

BILIRAKIS, GUS M

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Bilirakis, Gus M

  • Democrat Challenger

    Mcauley, Darren

  • Democrat Challenger

    Overman, Kimberly

  • Republican Challenger

    Williams, Shay

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
9.9
P(close race)
2%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 54.9%
  • Democrat 45.1%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereFL-12 54.9%45.1%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +8.3 51.9% −6.8

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
35.1 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-25.2 pts

Redistricting impact

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn under the 2025-2026 mid-decade redistricting. Composition by inherited old-district share:

  • Congressional District 12 (12012) 75%
  • Congressional District 14 (12014) 13%
  • Congressional District 15 (12015) 12%

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026