Riding profile

MI-4

US House district — MI · Mixed · us mi

The question

MI-4: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

MI-4, a mixed riding in MI, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 12-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 52% vote share, against 48% for the Democrats, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

HUIZENGA, WILLIAM P

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Huizenga, William P

  • Democrat Challenger

    Harris, Diop Jermaine Mr II

  • Democrat Challenger

    Mccann, Sean

  • Democrat Challenger

    Swartz, Jessica

Current forecast

Republican

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
3.8
P(close race)
82%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 51.9%
  • Democrat 48.1%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereMI-4 51.9%48.1%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +5.2 51.9% −3.7

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

District polls

Polls in this district

4 polls

Pollster Field dates Sample Pop. Topline Source
Gbao May 28 – Jun 1 500 LV
Democrat 48 Republican 45
link
Ragnar Research Partners Conservatives for America 12–Mar 14 400 LV
Republican 43 Democrat 42
link
Ragnar Research Partners Conservatives for America 12–Mar 14 400 LV
Republican 48 Democrat 42
link
Public Policy Polling 20–Nov 21 559 RV
Republican 44 Democrat 42
link

District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
11.7 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-8.0 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026