Michigan’s 4th District

U.S. House · MI-4

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives the Republicans a 57% chance of winning, with an average lead of 5.8 points.

Toss-up. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 52%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Republican 50.6%

Bill Huizenga, incumbent
Democrat 49.3%

Sean McCann

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks a different favourite: the Democrat, with a 50% chance, while Harfang des neiges favours the Republican (57%).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Republican	57%
Orbit	Democrat	50%
50/50 blend	Republican	54%

Figures as of November 2, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Republican	Democrat	Other
MI-4	50.6%	49.3%	0.0%
National averageUnited States	44.0%+6.6	54.7%−5.3	1.3%−1.3

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

4 polls, 5 scenarios

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source
Gbao	13–Sep 16, 2026	500	likely voters	Sean McCann (D) 47 Bill Huizenga (R) 46	See the poll
Gbao	May 28, 2026 – Jun 1, 2026	500	likely voters	Sean McCann (D) 48 Bill Huizenga (R) 45	See the poll
Ragnar Research Partners Conservatives for America Scenario 1	12–Mar 14, 2026	400	likely voters	Generic Republican (R) 43 Generic Democrat (D) 42	See the poll
Ragnar Research Partners Conservatives for America Scenario 2	12–Mar 14, 2026	400	likely voters	Bill Huizenga (R) 48 Sean McCann (D) 42	See the poll
Public Policy Polling	20–Nov 21, 2025	559	registered voters	Bill Huizenga (R) 44 Sean McCann (D) 42	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Local profile

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	6.2% (± 0.2)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Current member

Huizenga, Bill · Republican

Primary results

Held August 4, 2026 · Official source

Democratic primary	McCann, Sean	65.7%	64,877 votes
Republican primary	Huizenga, Bill	85.1%	70,895 votes

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Republican Incumbent

Huizenga, Bill
source
Democrat Challenger

McCann, Sean
source

Previous election (2024)

The Republicans won by 11.7 points.

Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 5.8 points.

Nearby districts

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

MI-3 Democrat, safe seat
MI-2 Republican, safe seat
MI-5 Republican, safe seat
MI-7 Democrat, toss-up
MI-8 Democrat, safe seat
MI-6 Democrat, safe seat

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: November 2, 2026