Winner
McCann, Sean 65.7%
Riding profile
MI-4
The question
MI-4: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
Republican
Toss-up
- Probability
- 78%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 1.9
- P(close race)
- 98%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Republican | Democrat | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|
| HereMI-4 | 50.6% | 49.2% | 0.1% |
| National averageUnited States | 44.9% +5.7 | 54.3% −5.1 | 5.1% −5.0 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
District polls
Polls in this district
4 polls
| Pollster | Field dates | Sample | Pop. | Topline | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gbao | May 28 – Jun 1 | 500 | LV | link | |
| Ragnar Research Partners Conservatives for America | 12–Mar 14 | 400 | LV | link | |
| Ragnar Research Partners Conservatives for America | 12–Mar 14 | 400 | LV | link | |
| Public Policy Polling | 20–Nov 21 | 559 | RV | link |
District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.
Editorial read
MI-4, a mixed riding in MI, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 12-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 51% vote share, against 49% for the Democrats, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
HUIZENGA, WILLIAM P
Sits with Republican
Primary race
Primary results
Held Aug 4, 2026 · Official count — not yet certified
Winner
Huizenga, Bill 85.1%
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
- Republican Incumbent
Huizenga, William P
-
Democrat Challenger Mccann, Sean
Previous election · 2024
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026