Riding profile

MI-7

US House district — MI · Mixed · us mi

The question

MI-7: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Democrat

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
3.7
P(close race)
87%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 51.4%

    William Lawrence

  • Republican 47.8%

    Thomas More Barrett incumbent

  • Other 0.8%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican Other
HereMI-7 51.4%47.8%0.8%
National averageUnited States 54.3% −2.9 44.9% +2.8 5.1% −4.3

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

District polls

Polls in this district

8 polls

Pollster Field dates Sample Pop. Topline Source
Global Strategy Group House Majority PAC 11–Aug 13 — LV
Democrat 49 Republican 47
link
Data For Progress 24–Jun 30 772 LV
Republican 46 Democrat 45
link
Data For Progress 24–Jun 30 772 LV
Republican 47 Democrat 46
link
Data For Progress 24–Jun 30 772 LV
Democrat 48 Republican 46
link
Public Policy Polling 24–Apr 25 519 RV
Democrat 46 Republican 45
link
Public Policy Polling 24–Apr 25 519 RV
Democrat 45 Republican 44
link
Public Policy Polling 27–Oct 28 557 RV
Democrat 43 Republican 39
link
Public Policy Polling 27–Oct 28 557 RV
Democrat 45 Republican 41
link

District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.

Editorial read

MI-7, a mixed riding in MI, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 4-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 51% vote share, against 48% for the Republicans, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

BARRETT, THOMAS MORE

Sits with Republican

Primary race

Primary results

Held Aug 4, 2026 · Official count — not yet certified

Democratic primary

Winner

Lawrence, William 43.7%

55,921 votes

Republican primary

Winner

Barrett, Tom 100.0%

72,457 votes

Official source →

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Barrett, Thomas More

  • Democrat Challenger

    Lawrence, William

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
3.7 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-0.1 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026