Riding profile

MI-7

US House district — MI · Mixed · us mi

The question

MI-7: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

MI-7, a mixed riding in MI, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 4-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 50% vote share, against 50% for the Republicans, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

BARRETT, THOMAS MORE

Sits with Republican

Primary race

Who leads in the primary

Democrat

William Lawrence 20%

3 candidates polled · Latest poll Apr 28, 2026 · bydata_for_progress

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Barrett, Thomas More

  • Democrat Challenger

    Brink,, Bridget

  • Democrat Challenger

    Cowen, Josh

  • Democrat Challenger

    Lawrence, William

  • Democrat Challenger

    Maasdam, Matthew

Current forecast

Democrat

Toss-up

Probability
53%
Mean margin (pts)
1.1
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 49.9%
  • Republican 49.7%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican Other
HereMI-7 49.9%49.7%0.4%
National averageUnited States 51.9% −2.0 46.6% +3.1 5.4% −5.0

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

District polls

Polls in this district

7 polls

Pollster Field dates Sample Pop. Topline Source
Data For Progress 24–Jun 30 772 LV
Republican 46 Democrat 45
link
Data For Progress 24–Jun 30 772 LV
Republican 47 Democrat 46
link
Data For Progress 24–Jun 30 772 LV
Democrat 48 Republican 46
link
Public Policy Polling 24–Apr 25 519 RV
Democrat 46 Republican 45
link
Public Policy Polling 24–Apr 25 519 RV
Democrat 45 Republican 44
link
Public Policy Polling 27–Oct 28 557 RV
Democrat 43 Republican 39
link
Public Policy Polling 27–Oct 28 557 RV
Democrat 45 Republican 41
link

District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
3.7 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-2.6 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026