Michigan’s 7th District

U.S. House · MI-7

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives the Democrats a 78% chance of winning, with an average lead of 7.4 points.

Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 40%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Democrat 52.5%

William Lawrence
Republican 47.0%

Tom Barrett, incumbent

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Democrat, with a 71% chance (78% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Democrat	78%
Orbit	Democrat	71%
50/50 blend	Democrat	75%

Figures as of November 2, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Democrat	Republican	Other
MI-7	52.5%	47.0%	0.5%
National averageUnited States	54.9%−2.4	43.9%+3.1	1.2%−0.8

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

5 polls, 9 scenarios

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source
Emerson College	12–Oct 14, 2026	314	likely voters	William Lawrence (D) 53 Tom Barrett (R) 45	See the poll
Global Strategy Group House Majority PAC	11–Aug 13, 2026	—	likely voters	William Lawrence (D) 49 Tom Barrett (R) 47	See the poll
Data For Progress Scenario 1	24–Jun 30, 2026	772	likely voters	Tom Barrett (R) 46 Bridget Brink (D) 45	See the poll
Data For Progress Scenario 2	24–Jun 30, 2026	772	likely voters	Tom Barrett (R) 47 Matt Maasdam (D) 46	See the poll
Data For Progress Scenario 3	24–Jun 30, 2026	772	likely voters	William Lawrence (D) 48 Tom Barrett (R) 46	See the poll
Public Policy Polling Scenario 1	24–Apr 25, 2026	519	registered voters	Bridget Brink (D) 46 Tom Barrett (R) 45	See the poll
Public Policy Polling Scenario 2	24–Apr 25, 2026	519	registered voters	Matt Maasdam (D) 45 Tom Barrett (R) 44	See the poll
Public Policy Polling Scenario 1	27–Oct 28, 2025	557	registered voters	Matt Maasdam (D) 43 Tom Barrett (R) 39	See the poll
Public Policy Polling Scenario 2	27–Oct 28, 2025	557	registered voters	Bridget Brink (D) 45 Tom Barrett (R) 41	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Local profile

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	4.8% (± 0.1)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Current member

Barrett, Tom · Republican

Primary results

Held August 4, 2026 · Official source

Democratic primary	Lawrence, William	43.7%	55,921 votes
Republican primary	Barrett, Tom	100.0%	72,457 votes

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Republican Incumbent

Barrett, Tom
source
Democrat Challenger

Lawrence, William
source

Previous election (2024)

The Republicans won by 3.7 points.

Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 7.4 points.

Nearby districts

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

MI-6 Democrat, safe seat
MI-8 Democrat, safe seat
MI-11 Democrat, safe seat
MI-12 Democrat, safe seat
MI-5 Republican, safe seat
MI-13 Democrat, safe seat

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: November 2, 2026