Riding profile

MI-13

US House district — MI · Mixed · us mi

The question

MI-13: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
55.7
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 75.4%

    Donavan McKinney

  • Republican 19.6%

    T.p. Nykoriak

  • Other 5.0%

    Maurice Gerard Morton IND

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican Other
HereMI-13 75.4%19.6%5.0%
National averageUnited States 54.3% +21.0 44.9% −25.3 5.1% −0.1

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

MI-13, a mixed riding in MI, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 44-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 75% vote share, against 20% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

THANEDAR, SHRI

Sits with Democrat

Primary race

Primary results

Held Aug 4, 2026 · Official count — not yet certified

Democratic primary

Winner

MCKINNEY, DONAVAN 51.9%

57,714 votes

Republican primary

Winner

NYKORIAK, T.P. 100.0%

18,470 votes

Official source →

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Challenger

    Mckinney, Donavan

  • Other Challenger

    Morton, Maurice Gerard

  • Republican Open seat

    Nykoriak, T.P.

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
44.1 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+11.6 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026