Winner
Hines, Christina Bertrand 47.0%
Riding profile
MI-10
The question
MI-10: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
Democrat
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 4.4
- P(close race)
- 65%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Democrat | Republican | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|
| HereMI-10 | 51.4% | 47.0% | 1.6% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.3% −3.0 | 44.9% +2.1 | 5.1% −3.5 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
District polls
Polls in this district
4 polls
| Pollster | Field dates | Sample | Pop. | Topline | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global Strategy Group House Majority PAC | 10–Aug 13 | 600 | LV | link | |
| Public Policy Polling | 16–Jan 17 | 592 | RV | link | |
| Public Policy Polling | 16–Jan 17 | 592 | RV | link | |
| Public Policy Polling | 16–Jan 17 | 592 | RV | link |
District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.
Editorial read
MI-10, a mixed riding in MI, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 6-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 51% vote share, against 47% for the Republicans, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
JAMES, JOHN
Sits with Republican
Primary race
Primary results
Held Aug 4, 2026 · Official count — not yet certified
Winner
Bouchard, Michael 72.2%
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
- Democrat Open seat
Hines, Christina
-
Republican Open seat Bouchard, Michael
Previous election · 2024
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026