Michigan’s 10th District

U.S. House · MI-10

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives the Democrats a 71% chance of winning, with an average lead of 6.8 points.

Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 45%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Democrat 51.2%

Christina Bertrand Hines
Republican 47.2%

Michael Bouchard
Other 1.6%

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Democrat, with a 65% chance (71% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Democrat	71%
Orbit	Democrat	65%
50/50 blend	Democrat	68%

Figures as of November 2, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Democrat	Republican	Other
MI-10	51.2%	47.2%	1.6%
National averageUnited States	54.7%−3.5	44.0%+3.2	1.3%+0.2

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

2 polls, 4 scenarios

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source
Global Strategy Group House Majority PAC	10–Aug 13, 2026	600	likely voters	Mike Bouchard (R) 45 Christina Hines (D) 45	See the poll
Public Policy Polling Scenario 1	16–Jan 17, 2026	592	registered voters	Christina Hines (D) 44 Mike Bouchard (R) 42	See the poll
Public Policy Polling Scenario 2	16–Jan 17, 2026	592	registered voters	Mike Bouchard (R) 44 Tim Greimel (D) 42	See the poll
Public Policy Polling Scenario 3	16–Jan 17, 2026	592	registered voters	Mike Bouchard (R) 43 Eric Chung (D) 41	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Local profile

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	2.3% (± 0.1)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Current member

James, John · Republican

Primary results

Held August 4, 2026 · Official source

Democratic primary	Hines, Christina Bertrand	47.0%	46,993 votes
Republican primary	Bouchard, Michael	72.2%	45,473 votes

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Democrat Open seat

Hines, Christina Bertrand
source
Republican Open seat

Bouchard, Michael
source

Previous election (2024)

The Republicans won by 6.1 points.

Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 6.8 points.

Nearby districts

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

MI-11 Democrat, safe seat
MI-13 Democrat, safe seat
MI-12 Democrat, safe seat
MI-6 Democrat, safe seat
MI-9 Republican, safe seat
MI-7 Democrat, toss-up

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: November 2, 2026