Riding profile

MI-10

US House district — MI · Mixed · us mi

The question

MI-10: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

MI-10, a mixed riding in MI, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 6-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 50% vote share, against 49% for the Democrats, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

JAMES, JOHN

Sits with Republican

Primary race

Who leads in the primary

Democrat

Christina Hines 30%

3 candidates polled · Latest poll Apr 26, 2026 · byglobal_strategy_group

Republican

Mike Bouchard 39.2%

4 candidates polled · Latest poll May 5, 2026 · byharper_polling

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    James, John

  • Republican Challenger

    Elliott, Steven

  • Democrat Open seat

    Adams, George

  • Democrat Open seat

    Chung, Eric

  • Democrat Open seat

    Greimel, Tim

  • Democrat Open seat

    Hawkins, Alexander

  • Democrat Open seat

    Hines, Christina

  • Republican Open seat

    Bouchard, Michael

  • Republican Open seat

    Kirk, Justin

  • Republican Open seat

    Lulgjuraj, Robert

Current forecast

Republican

Toss-up

Probability
57%
Mean margin (pts)
1.2
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 49.7%
  • Democrat 49.4%
  • Other 0.9%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat Other
HereMI-10 49.7%49.4%0.9%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +3.0 51.9% −2.4 5.4% −4.5

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

District polls

Polls in this district

3 polls

Pollster Field dates Sample Pop. Topline Source
Public Policy Polling 16–Jan 17 592 RV
Democrat 44 Republican 42
link
Public Policy Polling 16–Jan 17 592 RV
Republican 44 Democrat 42
link
Public Policy Polling 16–Jan 17 592 RV
Republican 43 Democrat 41
link

District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
6.1 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-5.0 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026