Michigan’s 9th District
U.S. House · MI-9
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Republicans a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 26.6 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 97% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Republican | > 99% |
| Orbit | Republican | 97% |
| 50/50 blend | Republican | 99% |
Compared with the average
| Republican | Democrat | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MI-9 | 62.6% | 36.1% | 1.3% |
| National averageUnited States | 43.9%+18.8 | 54.9%−18.8 | 1.2%+0.1 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Latino citizens aged 18 and over | 3.2% (± 0.2) |
|---|
Current member
McClain, Lisa · Republican
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Pooley, Ray | 100.0% | 74,349 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | McClain, Lisa | 100.0% | 103,291 votes |
Republican 
Democrat Previous election (2024)
The Republicans won by 37.3 points.
Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 26.6 points.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated