Riding profile

MI-9

US House district — MI · Mixed · us mi

The question

MI-9: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

MI-9, a mixed riding in MI, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 37-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 65% vote share, against 33% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

MCCLAIN, LISA

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Mcclain, Lisa

  • Republican Challenger

    Atwell, Daltson Theodore

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
32.3
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 65.5%
  • Democrat 33.2%
  • Other 1.3%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat Other
HereMI-9 65.5%33.2%1.3%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +18.8 51.9% −18.7 5.4% −4.1

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
37.3 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-5.0 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026