Riding profile

MI-9

US House district — MI · Mixed · us mi

The question

MI-9: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
26.8
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 62.4%

    Lisa McClain incumbent

  • Democrat 35.6%

    Steven Raymond Pooley

  • Other 1.9%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat Other
HereMI-9 62.4%35.6%1.9%
National averageUnited States 44.9% +17.5 54.3% −18.7 5.1% −3.2

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

MI-9, a mixed riding in MI, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 37-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 62% vote share, against 36% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

MCCLAIN, LISA

Sits with Republican

Primary race

Primary results

Held Aug 4, 2026 · Official count — not yet certified

Democratic primary

Winner

Pooley, Ray 100.0%

74,349 votes

Republican primary

Winner

McClain, Lisa 100.0%

103,291 votes

Official source →

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Mcclain, Lisa

  • Democrat Challenger

    Pooley, Steven Raymond

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
37.3 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-10.4 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026