Riding profile

MI-8

US House district — MI · Mixed · us mi

The question

MI-8: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
18.9
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 58.3%

    Kristen McDonald Rivet incumbent

  • Republican 39.4%

    Thomas J. Smith

  • Other 2.3%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican Other
HereMI-8 58.3%39.4%2.3%
National averageUnited States 54.3% +4.0 44.9% −5.6 5.1% −2.8

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

MI-8, a mixed riding in MI, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 7-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 58% vote share, against 39% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

MCDONALD RIVET, KRISTEN

Sits with Democrat

Primary race

Primary results

Held Aug 4, 2026 · Official count — not yet certified

Democratic primary

Winner

McDonald Rivet, Kristen 100.0%

104,231 votes

Republican primary

Winner

Smith, Thomas J. 50.4%

31,149 votes

Official source →

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Mcdonald Rivet, Kristen

  • Republican Open seat

    Smith, Thomas J.

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
6.6 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+12.3 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026