Michigan’s 8th District
U.S. House · MI-8
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Democrats a 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 19.3 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 2%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Democrat, with a 90% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Democrat | > 99% |
| Orbit | Democrat | 90% |
| 50/50 blend | Democrat | 95% |
Compared with the average
| Democrat | Republican | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MI-8 | 58.8% | 39.5% | 1.7% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.9%+3.9 | 43.9%−4.3 | 1.2%+0.5 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Latino citizens aged 18 and over | 4.5% (± 0.1) |
|---|
Current member
McDonald Rivet, Kristen · Democrat
Primary results
| Democratic primary | McDonald Rivet, Kristen | 100.0% | 104,231 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Smith, Thomas J. | 50.4% | 31,149 votes |
Democrat 
Republican Previous election (2024)
The Democrats won by 6.6 points.
Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 19.3 points.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated