Vote-Scope Labs · Updated November 2, 2026
Orbit Live experiment
U.S. House 2026
Here is what Orbit, our experimental model, sees next to Harfang des neiges, our classical model.
Democrat · Chance of control
86% Harfang 97% Seats won: 242 · Harfang 238Republican · Chance of control
14% Harfang 3% Seats won: 193 · Harfang 197Generic ballot according to Orbit
D 54.5 · R 45.4 Days to election: 1Orbit (quantum) vs. Harfang des neiges (classical): do they agree?
They agree
-
Democrat -
Republican
What if we listened to both engines at once?
50/50 blend: Democrat 236 · Chance of control92%
The blend gives each riding the average of the chances announced by Orbit and by our reference forecast, then counts the favourites. In our Quebec replays (2018 and 2022, the day before the vote), the blend always beat the reference forecast alone: in 2018 the error drops from 6.5 to 4.5 seats, and the announced probabilities become far more reliable. The 50/50 split is a choice of principle, not a setting tuned on those two elections. Its first real blind test came in Quebec on October 5: the blend picked the right winner in 114 of 127 ridings, against 110 for the reference forecast and 113 for Orbit, and its probabilities were the best calibrated of the three. One election is not enough to conclude: British Columbia is its second test.
The election, drawn on a real quantum computer
Each contested race becomes one qubit, tuned so that measuring it returns each party with exactly its chance according to Orbit. One measurement of the circuit is one complete election. We repeated the measurement thousands of times, across 256 national scenarios, from a Democratic wave to a Republican comeback.
- Machine:
- ibm_marrakesh
- Draw:
- November 1 at 09:08 PM EST
- Elections drawn:
- 16,384
- Qubits per circuit:
- 60
- Machine time:
- 42 s
Democrat seats: what the machine drew
- Raw draw from the machine
- After readout-error correction
- Orbit’s exact calculation
Average seats by party
| Party | Exact | Machine, raw | Machine, corrected |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democrat | 260.1 | 259.7 | 259.8 |
| Republican | 174.9 | 175.3 | 175.2 |
| Chance of a majority: Democrat | 86% | 86% | 86% |
All 435 races, one by one
For each race: the favourite’s chance according to Orbit’s exact calculation, and how often the machine made it win. Safe races (0 qubits) skip the machine: the same party wins in every scenario.
| Race | Qubits | Favourite | Exact | Machine | Other outcomes drawn |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AK-AL | 1 | Democrat | 77% | 76% | Republican 24% |
| AL-1 | 1 | Republican | 95% | 94% | Democrat 7% |
| AL-2 | 1 | Republican | 54% | 54% | Democrat 46% |
| AL-3 | 1 | Republican | > 99% | 98% | Democrat 3% |
| AL-4 | safe | Republican | > 99% | > 99% | — |
| AL-5 | 1 | Republican | 87% | 88% | Democrat 12% |
| AL-6 | 1 | Republican | 94% | 93% | Democrat 7% |
| AL-7 | 1 | Democrat | 98% | 99% | Republican 1% |
| AR-1 | 1 | Republican | > 99% | > 99% | Democrat < 1% |
| AR-2 | 1 | Republican | 62% | 64% | Democrat 36% |
| AR-3 | 1 | Republican | 92% | 92% | Democrat 8% |
| AR-4 | 1 | Republican | > 99% | 99% | Democrat 1% |
| AZ-1 | 1 | Democrat | 71% | 71% | Republican 29% |
| AZ-2 | 1 | Democrat | 58% | 59% | Republican 41% |
| AZ-3 | safe | Democrat | > 99% | > 99% | — |
| AZ-4 | 1 | Democrat | 91% | 90% | Republican 10% |
| AZ-5 | 1 | Republican | 73% | 73% | Democrat 27% |
| AZ-6 | 1 | Democrat | 74% | 74% | Republican 26% |
| AZ-7 | 1 | Democrat | > 99% | > 99% | Republican < 1% |
| AZ-8 | 1 | Republican | 52% | 52% | Democrat 48% |
| AZ-9 | 1 | Republican | 91% | 91% | Democrat 9% |
| CA-1 | 1 | Democrat | 96% | 96% | Republican 4% |
| CA-2 | 1 | Democrat | > 99% | 97% | Republican 3% |
| CA-3 | 1 | Democrat | 94% | 94% | Republican 6% |
| CA-4 | 1 | Democrat | 97% | 97% | Republican 3% |
| CA-5 | 1 | Republican | 73% | 74% | Democrat 26% |
| CA-6 | 1 | Democrat | 93% | 93% | Republican 7% |
| CA-7 | 1 | Democrat | 96% | 95% | Republican 5% |
| CA-8 | safe | Democrat | > 99% | > 99% | — |
| CA-9 | 1 | Democrat | 95% | 95% | Republican 5% |
| CA-10 | safe | Democrat | > 99% | > 99% | — |
| CA-11 | safe | Democrat | > 99% | > 99% | — |
| CA-12 | safe | Democrat | > 99% | > 99% | — |
| CA-13 | 1 | Democrat | 79% | 80% | Republican 21% |
| CA-14 | safe | Democrat | > 99% | > 99% | — |
| CA-15 | safe | Democrat | > 99% | > 99% | — |
| CA-16 | safe | Democrat | > 99% | > 99% | — |
| CA-17 | safe | Democrat | > 99% | > 99% | — |
| CA-18 | 1 | Democrat | > 99% | > 99% | Republican < 1% |
| CA-19 | safe | Democrat | > 99% | > 99% | — |
| CA-20 | 1 | Republican | 93% | 93% | Democrat 7% |
| CA-21 | 1 | Democrat | 89% | 89% | Republican 11% |
| CA-22 | 1 | Democrat | 76% | 76% | Republican 24% |
| CA-23 | 1 | Republican | 70% | 70% | Democrat 30% |
| CA-24 | 1 | Democrat | > 99% | > 99% | Republican < 1% |
| CA-25 | 1 | Democrat | 89% | 90% | Republican 10% |
| CA-26 | 1 | Democrat | 97% | 97% | Republican 3% |
| CA-27 | 1 | Democrat | 94% | 93% | Republican 7% |
| CA-28 | 1 | Democrat | > 99% | 99% | Republican 1% |
| CA-29 | 1 | Democrat | > 99% | 98% | Republican 2% |
| CA-30 | safe | Democrat | > 99% | > 99% | — |
| CA-31 | 1 | Democrat | 96% | 95% | Republican 5% |
| CA-32 | 1 | Democrat | > 99% | > 99% | Republican < 1% |
| CA-33 | 1 | Democrat | 94% | 94% | Republican 6% |
| CA-34 | safe | Democrat | > 99% | > 99% | — |
| CA-35 | 1 | Democrat | 92% | 91% | Republican 9% |
| CA-36 | safe | Democrat | > 99% | > 99% | — |
| CA-37 | safe | Democrat | > 99% | > 99% | — |
| CA-38 | 1 | Democrat | 95% | 95% | Republican 5% |
| CA-39 | 1 | Democrat | 93% | 93% | Republican 7% |
| CA-40 | 1 | Republican | 52% | 53% | Democrat 47% |
| CA-41 | 1 | Democrat | 97% | 97% | Republican 3% |
| CA-42 | 1 | Democrat | 96% | 96% | Republican 4% |
| CA-43 | safe | Democrat | > 99% | > 99% | — |
| CA-44 | safe | Democrat | > 99% | > 99% | — |
| CA-45 | 1 | Democrat | 87% | 87% | Republican 13% |
| CA-46 | 1 | Democrat | 98% | 97% | Republican 3% |
| CA-47 | 1 | Democrat | 94% | 92% | Republican 8% |
| CA-48 | 1 | Democrat | 85% | 85% | Republican 15% |
| CA-49 | 1 | Democrat | 96% | 95% | Republican 5% |
| CA-50 | 1 | Democrat | 99% | 98% | Republican 2% |
| CA-51 | 1 | Democrat | 98% | 98% | Republican 2% |
| CA-52 | 1 | Democrat | 98% | 98% | Republican 2% |
| CO-1 | safe | Democrat | > 99% | > 99% | — |
| CO-2 | safe | Democrat | > 99% | > 99% | — |
| CO-3 | 1 | Democrat | 68% | 69% | Republican 31% |
| CO-4 | 1 | Democrat | 50% | 51% | Republican 49% |
| CO-5 | 1 | Republican | 56% | 57% | Democrat 43% |
| CO-6 | 1 | Democrat | 99% | 99% | Republican 1% |
| CO-7 | 1 | Democrat | 97% | 97% | Republican 3% |
| CO-8 | 1 | Democrat | 78% | 78% | Republican 22% |
| CT-1 | 1 | Democrat | > 99% | 99% | Republican 1% |
| CT-2 | 1 | Democrat | 97% | 97% | Republican 3% |
| CT-3 | 1 | Democrat | 98% | 98% | Republican 2% |
| CT-4 | 1 | Democrat | > 99% | 98% | Republican 2% |
| CT-5 | 1 | Democrat | 87% | 87% | Republican 13% |
| DE-AL | 1 | Democrat | 98% | 96% | Republican 4% |
| FL-1 | 1 | Republican | 96% | 96% | Democrat 4% |
| FL-2 | 1 | Republican | 63% | 63% | Democrat 37% |
| FL-3 | 1 | Republican | 71% | 72% | Democrat 28% |
| FL-4 | 1 | Democrat | 54% | 56% | Republican 44% |
| FL-5 | 1 | Republican | 72% | 73% | Democrat 27% |
| FL-6 | 1 | Republican | 88% | 89% | Democrat 11% |
| FL-7 | 1 | Democrat | 52% | 52% | Republican 48% |
| FL-8 | 1 | Republican | 59% | 59% | Democrat 41% |
| FL-9 | 1 | Republican | 63% | 63% | Democrat 37% |
| FL-10 | 1 | Democrat | > 99% | > 99% | Republican < 1% |
| FL-11 | 1 | Republican | 56% | 57% | Democrat 43% |
| FL-12 | 1 | Republican | 57% | 58% | Democrat 42% |
| FL-13 | 1 | Republican | 51% | 52% | Democrat 48% |
| FL-14 | 1 | Democrat | 58% | 58% | Republican 42% |
| FL-15 | 1 | Republican | 68% | 69% | Democrat 31% |
| FL-16 | 1 | Republican | 53% | 54% | Democrat 46% |
| FL-17 | 1 | Republican | 73% | 73% | Democrat 27% |
| FL-18 | 1 | Republican | 60% | 60% | Democrat 40% |
| FL-19 | 1 | Republican | 88% | 88% | Democrat 12% |
| FL-20 | safe | Democrat | > 99% | > 99% | — |
| FL-21 | 1 | Republican | 59% | 59% | Democrat 41% |
| FL-22 | 1 | Democrat | 57% | 58% | Republican 42% |
| FL-23 | 1 | Democrat | 97% | 97% | Republican 3% |
| FL-24 | safe | Democrat | > 99% | > 99% | — |
| FL-25 | 1 | Democrat | 64% | 64% | Republican 36% |
| FL-26 | 1 | Republican | 62% | 63% | Democrat 37% |
| FL-27 | 1 | Republican | 54% | 55% | Democrat 45% |
| FL-28 | 1 | Republican | 80% | 80% | Democrat 20% |
| GA-1 | 1 | Republican | 77% | 77% | Democrat 23% |
| GA-2 | 1 | Democrat | 96% | 96% | Republican 4% |
| GA-3 | 1 | Republican | 91% | 92% | Democrat 9% |
| GA-4 | safe | Democrat | > 99% | > 99% | — |
| GA-5 | safe | Democrat | > 99% | > 99% | — |
| GA-6 | safe | Democrat | > 99% | > 99% | — |
| GA-7 | 1 | Republican | 87% | 87% | Democrat 13% |
| GA-8 | 1 | Republican | 96% | 96% | Democrat 4% |
| GA-9 | 1 | Republican | 96% | 95% | Democrat 5% |
| GA-10 | 1 | Republican | 81% | 81% | Democrat 19% |
| GA-11 | 1 | Republican | 93% | 93% | Democrat 7% |
| GA-12 | 1 | Republican | 69% | 69% | Democrat 31% |
| GA-13 | safe | Democrat | > 99% | > 99% | — |
| GA-14 | 1 | Republican | 86% | 85% | Democrat 15% |
| HI-1 | safe | Democrat | > 99% | > 99% | — |
| HI-2 | safe | Democrat | > 99% | > 99% | — |
| IA-1 | 1 | Democrat | 79% | 80% | Republican 20% |
| IA-2 | 1 | Republican | 61% | 63% | Democrat 37% |
| IA-3 | 1 | Democrat | 71% | 72% | Republican 28% |
| IA-4 | 1 | Republican | 94% | 94% | Democrat 6% |
| ID-1 | 1 | Republican | > 99% | > 99% | Democrat < 1% |
| ID-2 | 1 | Republican | 92% | 92% | Democrat 8% |
| IL-1 | 1 | Democrat | > 99% | 99% | Republican 2% |
| IL-2 | safe | Democrat | > 99% | > 99% | — |
| IL-3 | safe | Democrat | > 99% | > 99% | — |
| IL-4 | safe | Democrat | > 99% | > 99% | — |
| IL-5 | safe | Democrat | > 99% | > 99% | — |
| IL-6 | 1 | Democrat | 93% | 93% | Republican 7% |
| IL-7 | safe | Democrat | > 99% | > 99% | — |
| IL-8 | 1 | Democrat | 97% | 96% | Republican 4% |
| IL-9 | safe | Democrat | > 99% | > 99% | — |
| IL-10 | 1 | Democrat | 99% | 99% | Republican 1% |
| IL-11 | 1 | Democrat | 95% | 94% | Republican 6% |
| IL-12 | 1 | Republican | > 99% | 99% | Democrat 1% |
| IL-13 | 1 | Democrat | 98% | 98% | Republican 2% |
| IL-14 | 1 | Democrat | 94% | 94% | Republican 6% |
| IL-15 | 1 | Republican | 98% | 98% | Democrat 2% |
| IL-16 | 1 | Republican | 98% | 98% | Democrat 2% |
| IL-17 | 1 | Democrat | 93% | 92% | Republican 8% |
| IN-1 | 1 | Democrat | 93% | 91% | Republican 9% |
| IN-2 | 1 | Republican | 88% | 87% | Democrat 13% |
| IN-3 | 1 | Republican | 94% | 93% | Democrat 7% |
| IN-4 | 1 | Republican | 95% | 95% | Democrat 5% |
| IN-5 | 1 | Republican | 70% | 71% | Democrat 29% |
| IN-6 | 1 | Republican | 93% | 94% | Democrat 6% |
| IN-7 | safe | Democrat | > 99% | > 99% | — |
| IN-8 | 1 | Republican | 97% | 97% | Democrat 3% |
| IN-9 | 1 | Republican | 93% | 91% | Democrat 9% |
| KS-1 | 1 | Republican | 97% | 96% | Democrat 4% |
| KS-2 | 1 | Republican | 71% | 72% | Democrat 28% |
| KS-3 | 1 | Democrat | 95% | 94% | Republican 6% |
| KS-4 | 1 | Republican | 90% | 90% | Democrat 11% |
| KY-1 | 1 | Republican | > 99% | > 99% | Democrat < 1% |
| KY-2 | 1 | Republican | > 99% | > 99% | Democrat < 1% |
| KY-3 | 1 | Democrat | > 99% | > 99% | Republican < 1% |
| KY-4 | 1 | Republican | 98% | 98% | Democrat 2% |
| KY-5 | 1 | Republican | 98% | 98% | Democrat 2% |
| KY-6 | 1 | Republican | 81% | 82% | Democrat 18% |
| LA-1 | 1 | Republican | 96% | 96% | Democrat 4% |
| LA-2 | safe | Democrat | > 99% | > 99% | — |
| LA-3 | 1 | Republican | 95% | 94% | Democrat 6% |
| LA-4 | 1 | Republican | 93% | 93% | Democrat 7% |
| LA-5 | 1 | Republican | 93% | 93% | Democrat 7% |
| LA-6 | 1 | Republican | 88% | 88% | Democrat 12% |
| MA-1 | safe | Democrat | > 99% | > 99% | — |
| MA-2 | safe | Democrat | > 99% | > 99% | — |
| MA-3 | safe | Democrat | > 99% | > 99% | — |
| MA-4 | safe | Democrat | > 99% | > 99% | — |
| MA-5 | safe | Democrat | > 99% | > 99% | — |
| MA-6 | safe | Democrat | > 99% | > 99% | — |
| MA-7 | safe | Democrat | > 99% | > 99% | — |
| MA-8 | safe | Democrat | > 99% | > 99% | — |
| MA-9 | 1 | Democrat | 96% | 96% | Republican 4% |
| MD-1 | 1 | Republican | 74% | 73% | Democrat 27% |
| MD-2 | 1 | Democrat | 99% | 98% | Republican 2% |
| MD-3 | 1 | Democrat | > 99% | 99% | Republican 1% |
| MD-4 | safe | Democrat | > 99% | > 99% | — |
| MD-5 | safe | Democrat | > 99% | > 99% | — |
| MD-6 | 1 | Democrat | 91% | 91% | Republican 9% |
| MD-7 | safe | Democrat | > 99% | > 99% | — |
| MD-8 | safe | Democrat | > 99% | > 99% | — |
| ME-1 | 1 | Democrat | > 99% | 99% | Republican 1% |
| ME-2 | 1 | Democrat | 80% | 81% | Republican 19% |
| MI-1 | 1 | Republican | 76% | 76% | Democrat 24% |
| MI-2 | 1 | Republican | 94% | 94% | Democrat 6% |
| MI-3 | 1 | Democrat | 94% | 94% | Republican 6% |
| MI-4 | 1 | Republican | 51% | 51% | Democrat 49% |
| MI-5 | 1 | Republican | 93% | 94% | Democrat 6% |
| MI-6 | 1 | Democrat | > 99% | > 99% | — |
| MI-7 | 1 | Democrat | 71% | 72% | Republican 28% |
| MI-8 | 1 | Democrat | 91% | 91% | Republican 9% |
| MI-9 | 1 | Republican | 97% | 96% | Democrat 4% |
| MI-10 | 1 | Democrat | 65% | 64% | Republican 36% |
| MI-11 | 1 | Democrat | 99% | 98% | Republican 3% |
| MI-12 | safe | Democrat | > 99% | > 99% | — |
| MI-13 | safe | Democrat | > 99% | > 99% | — |
| MN-1 | 1 | Republican | 65% | 66% | Democrat 34% |
| MN-2 | 1 | Democrat | 97% | 97% | Republican 3% |
| MN-3 | 1 | Democrat | 98% | 97% | Republican 3% |
| MN-4 | safe | Democrat | > 99% | > 99% | — |
| MN-5 | safe | Democrat | > 99% | > 99% | — |
| MN-6 | 1 | Republican | 83% | 82% | Democrat 18% |
| MN-7 | 1 | Republican | 98% | 98% | Democrat 2% |
| MN-8 | 1 | Republican | 62% | 64% | Democrat 36% |
| MO-1 | safe | Democrat | > 99% | > 99% | — |
| MO-2 | 1 | Republican | 52% | 52% | Democrat 48% |
| MO-3 | 1 | Republican | 85% | 86% | Democrat 14% |
| MO-4 | 1 | Republican | > 99% | 99% | Democrat 1% |
| MO-5 | 1 | Democrat | > 99% | 99% | Republican 1% |
| MO-6 | 1 | Republican | 99% | 98% | Democrat 2% |
| MO-7 | 1 | Republican | > 99% | 99% | Democrat 1% |
| MO-8 | 1 | Republican | > 99% | > 99% | — |
| MS-1 | 1 | Republican | 97% | 97% | Democrat 3% |
| MS-2 | 1 | Democrat | > 99% | > 99% | Republican < 1% |
| MS-3 | 1 | Republican | 98% | 97% | Democrat 3% |
| MS-4 | 1 | Republican | > 99% | 98% | Democrat 2% |
| MT-1 | 1 | Democrat | 61% | 62% | Republican 38% |
| MT-2 | 1 | Republican | 93% | 93% | Democrat 8% |
| NC-1 | 1 | Democrat | 55% | 55% | Republican 45% |
| NC-2 | 1 | Democrat | > 99% | 98% | Republican 2% |
| NC-3 | 1 | Republican | 52% | 54% | Democrat 46% |
| NC-4 | safe | Democrat | > 99% | > 99% | — |
| NC-5 | 1 | Republican | 63% | 63% | Democrat 37% |
| NC-6 | 1 | Republican | 61% | 62% | Democrat 38% |
| NC-7 | 1 | Republican | 52% | 53% | Democrat 47% |
| NC-8 | 1 | Republican | 67% | 67% | Democrat 33% |
| NC-9 | 1 | Republican | 57% | 59% | Democrat 41% |
| NC-10 | 1 | Republican | 63% | 65% | Democrat 35% |
| NC-11 | 1 | Democrat | 60% | 60% | Republican 40% |
| NC-12 | safe | Democrat | > 99% | > 99% | — |
| NC-13 | 1 | Republican | 58% | 60% | Democrat 40% |
| NC-14 | 1 | Republican | 56% | 56% | Democrat 44% |
| ND-AL | 1 | Republican | 98% | 98% | Democrat 2% |
| NE-1 | 1 | Republican | 72% | 73% | Democrat 27% |
| NE-2 | 1 | Democrat | 76% | 76% | Republican 24% |
| NE-3 | 1 | Republican | > 99% | > 99% | — |
| NH-1 | 1 | Democrat | 91% | 90% | Republican 10% |
| NH-2 | 1 | Democrat | 89% | 90% | Republican 10% |
| NJ-1 | 1 | Democrat | 98% | 98% | Republican 2% |
| NJ-2 | 1 | Republican | 65% | 65% | Democrat 35% |
| NJ-3 | 1 | Democrat | 92% | 92% | Republican 8% |
| NJ-4 | 1 | Republican | 96% | 95% | Democrat 5% |
| NJ-5 | 1 | Democrat | 95% | 95% | Republican 5% |
| NJ-6 | 1 | Democrat | 97% | 96% | Republican 4% |
| NJ-7 | 1 | Democrat | 67% | 67% | Republican 33% |
| NJ-8 | 1 | Democrat | > 99% | 99% | Republican 1% |
| NJ-9 | 1 | Democrat | 88% | 88% | Republican 12% |
| NJ-10 | safe | Democrat | > 99% | > 99% | — |
| NJ-11 | 1 | Democrat | 97% | 97% | Republican 3% |
| NJ-12 | 1 | Democrat | > 99% | 98% | Republican 2% |
| NM-1 | 1 | Democrat | 96% | 96% | Republican 4% |
| NM-2 | 1 | Democrat | 87% | 87% | Republican 13% |
| NM-3 | 1 | Democrat | 96% | 96% | Republican 4% |
| NV-1 | 1 | Democrat | 91% | 91% | Republican 9% |
| NV-2 | 1 | Republican | 99% | 98% | Democrat 2% |
| NV-3 | 1 | Democrat | 85% | 84% | Republican 16% |
| NV-4 | 1 | Democrat | 92% | 91% | Republican 9% |
| NY-1 | 1 | Democrat | 68% | 69% | Republican 31% |
| NY-2 | 1 | Republican | 60% | 62% | Democrat 38% |
| NY-3 | 1 | Democrat | 90% | 90% | Republican 10% |
| NY-4 | 1 | Democrat | 89% | 88% | Republican 12% |
| NY-5 | safe | Democrat | > 99% | > 99% | — |
| NY-6 | 1 | Democrat | > 99% | 99% | Republican 1% |
| NY-7 | safe | Democrat | > 99% | > 99% | — |
| NY-8 | safe | Democrat | > 99% | > 99% | — |
| NY-9 | safe | Democrat | > 99% | > 99% | — |
| NY-10 | safe | Democrat | > 99% | > 99% | — |
| NY-11 | 1 | Republican | 80% | 78% | Democrat 22% |
| NY-12 | safe | Democrat | > 99% | > 99% | — |
| NY-13 | safe | Democrat | > 99% | > 99% | — |
| NY-14 | 1 | Democrat | > 99% | 99% | Republican 1% |
| NY-15 | safe | Democrat | > 99% | > 99% | — |
| NY-16 | safe | Democrat | > 99% | > 99% | — |
| NY-17 | 1 | Democrat | 75% | 75% | Republican 25% |
| NY-18 | 1 | Democrat | 97% | 96% | Republican 4% |
| NY-19 | 1 | Democrat | 82% | 82% | Republican 18% |
| NY-20 | 1 | Democrat | > 99% | 99% | Republican 1% |
| NY-21 | 1 | Republican | 78% | 78% | Democrat 22% |
| NY-22 | 1 | Democrat | 94% | 94% | Republican 6% |
| NY-23 | 1 | Republican | 80% | 80% | Democrat 20% |
| NY-24 | 1 | Republican | 81% | 83% | Democrat 17% |
| NY-25 | 1 | Democrat | 97% | 97% | Republican 3% |
| NY-26 | 1 | Democrat | > 99% | > 99% | Republican < 1% |
| OH-1 | 1 | Democrat | 74% | 74% | Republican 26% |
| OH-2 | 1 | Republican | 98% | 98% | Democrat 2% |
| OH-3 | safe | Democrat | > 99% | > 99% | — |
| OH-4 | 1 | Republican | 99% | 98% | Democrat 2% |
| OH-5 | 1 | Republican | 80% | 82% | Democrat 18% |
| OH-6 | 1 | Republican | 95% | 95% | Democrat 5% |
| OH-7 | 1 | Democrat | 52% | 54% | Republican 46% |
| OH-8 | 1 | Republican | 60% | 61% | Democrat 39% |
| OH-9 | 1 | Democrat | 53% | 55% | Republican 45% |
| OH-10 | 1 | Democrat | 60% | 61% | Republican 39% |
| OH-11 | safe | Democrat | > 99% | > 99% | — |
| OH-12 | 1 | Republican | 90% | 88% | Democrat 12% |
| OH-13 | 1 | Democrat | 86% | 87% | Republican 13% |
| OH-14 | 1 | Republican | 73% | 74% | Democrat 26% |
| OH-15 | 1 | Democrat | 54% | 55% | Republican 45% |
| OK-1 | 1 | Republican | 83% | 83% | Democrat 17% |
| OK-2 | 1 | Republican | > 99% | 99% | Democrat 1% |
| OK-3 | 1 | Republican | 98% | 98% | Democrat 2% |
| OK-4 | 1 | Republican | 96% | 96% | Democrat 4% |
| OK-5 | 1 | Republican | 71% | 71% | Democrat 29% |
| OR-1 | safe | Democrat | > 99% | > 99% | — |
| OR-2 | 1 | Republican | 93% | 93% | Democrat 7% |
| OR-3 | safe | Democrat | > 99% | > 99% | — |
| OR-4 | 1 | Democrat | 91% | 92% | Republican 8% |
| OR-5 | 1 | Democrat | 84% | 84% | Republican 16% |
| OR-6 | 1 | Democrat | 90% | 90% | Republican 10% |
| PA-1 | 1 | Republican | 53% | 53% | Democrat 47% |
| PA-2 | safe | Democrat | > 99% | > 99% | — |
| PA-3 | safe | Democrat | > 99% | > 99% | — |
| PA-4 | 1 | Democrat | 98% | 98% | Republican 2% |
| PA-5 | 1 | Democrat | > 99% | > 99% | — |
| PA-6 | 1 | Democrat | 95% | 95% | Republican 5% |
| PA-7 | 1 | Democrat | 77% | 77% | Republican 23% |
| PA-8 | 1 | Democrat | 76% | 76% | Republican 24% |
| PA-9 | 1 | Republican | 98% | 98% | Democrat 2% |
| PA-10 | 1 | Democrat | 77% | 77% | Republican 23% |
| PA-11 | 1 | Republican | 84% | 85% | Democrat 15% |
| PA-12 | 1 | Democrat | 96% | 96% | Republican 4% |
| PA-13 | 1 | Republican | > 99% | > 99% | Democrat < 1% |
| PA-14 | 1 | Republican | 94% | 93% | Democrat 7% |
| PA-15 | 1 | Republican | 99% | 97% | Democrat 3% |
| PA-16 | 1 | Republican | 87% | 86% | Democrat 14% |
| PA-17 | 1 | Democrat | 91% | 91% | Republican 9% |
| RI-1 | 1 | Democrat | > 99% | > 99% | — |
| RI-2 | 1 | Democrat | 97% | 95% | Republican 5% |
| SC-1 | 1 | Republican | 59% | 61% | Democrat 39% |
| SC-2 | 1 | Republican | 66% | 66% | Democrat 34% |
| SC-3 | 1 | Republican | > 99% | > 99% | Democrat < 1% |
| SC-4 | 1 | Republican | 75% | 75% | Democrat 25% |
| SC-5 | 1 | Republican | 83% | 83% | Democrat 17% |
| SC-6 | 1 | Democrat | > 99% | > 99% | Republican < 1% |
| SC-7 | 1 | Republican | 88% | 87% | Democrat 13% |
| SD-AL | 1 | Republican | 99% | 98% | Democrat 2% |
| TN-1 | safe | Republican | > 99% | > 99% | — |
| TN-2 | 1 | Republican | 93% | 91% | Democrat 9% |
| TN-3 | 1 | Republican | 95% | 93% | Democrat 7% |
| TN-4 | 1 | Republican | 78% | 78% | Democrat 22% |
| TN-5 | 1 | Republican | 74% | 74% | Democrat 26% |
| TN-6 | 1 | Republican | 84% | 84% | Democrat 16% |
| TN-7 | 1 | Republican | 71% | 71% | Democrat 29% |
| TN-8 | 1 | Republican | 69% | 70% | Democrat 30% |
| TN-9 | 1 | Republican | 72% | 72% | Democrat 28% |
| TX-1 | 1 | Republican | > 99% | > 99% | — |
| TX-2 | 1 | Republican | 75% | 76% | Democrat 24% |
| TX-3 | 1 | Republican | 77% | 77% | Democrat 23% |
| TX-4 | 1 | Republican | 79% | 79% | Democrat 21% |
| TX-5 | 1 | Republican | 69% | 69% | Democrat 31% |
| TX-6 | 1 | Republican | 74% | 74% | Democrat 26% |
| TX-7 | 1 | Democrat | > 99% | > 99% | Republican < 1% |
| TX-8 | 1 | Republican | 85% | 85% | Democrat 15% |
| TX-9 | 1 | Republican | 68% | 67% | Democrat 33% |
| TX-10 | 1 | Republican | 72% | 72% | Democrat 28% |
| TX-11 | 1 | Republican | 94% | 94% | Democrat 6% |
| TX-12 | 1 | Republican | 78% | 78% | Democrat 22% |
| TX-13 | 1 | Republican | > 99% | > 99% | Democrat < 1% |
| TX-14 | 1 | Republican | 78% | 78% | Democrat 22% |
| TX-15 | 1 | Republican | 61% | 63% | Democrat 37% |
| TX-16 | 1 | Democrat | 98% | 98% | Republican 2% |
| TX-17 | 1 | Republican | 72% | 73% | Democrat 27% |
| TX-18 | safe | Democrat | > 99% | > 99% | — |
| TX-19 | 1 | Republican | > 99% | > 99% | Democrat < 1% |
| TX-20 | 1 | Democrat | > 99% | > 99% | Republican < 1% |
| TX-21 | 1 | Republican | 73% | 74% | Democrat 26% |
| TX-22 | 1 | Republican | 72% | 72% | Democrat 28% |
| TX-23 | 1 | Republican | 54% | 56% | Democrat 44% |
| TX-24 | 1 | Republican | 57% | 58% | Democrat 42% |
| TX-25 | 1 | Republican | 77% | 78% | Democrat 22% |
| TX-26 | 1 | Republican | 77% | 77% | Democrat 23% |
| TX-27 | 1 | Republican | 69% | 71% | Democrat 29% |
| TX-28 | 1 | Democrat | 57% | 57% | Republican 43% |
| TX-29 | 1 | Democrat | > 99% | 98% | Republican 2% |
| TX-30 | safe | Democrat | > 99% | > 99% | — |
| TX-31 | 1 | Republican | 73% | 73% | Democrat 27% |
| TX-32 | 1 | Republican | 64% | 63% | Democrat 37% |
| TX-33 | 1 | Democrat | > 99% | > 99% | — |
| TX-34 | 1 | Democrat | 59% | 60% | Republican 40% |
| TX-35 | 1 | Democrat | 58% | 59% | Republican 41% |
| TX-36 | 1 | Republican | 80% | 81% | Democrat 19% |
| TX-37 | safe | Democrat | > 99% | > 99% | — |
| TX-38 | 1 | Republican | 70% | 69% | Democrat 31% |
| UT-1 | 1 | Democrat | > 99% | > 99% | Republican < 1% |
| UT-2 | 1 | Republican | 90% | 90% | Democrat 10% |
| UT-3 | 1 | Republican | 99% | 99% | Democrat 1% |
| UT-4 | 1 | Republican | 94% | 94% | Democrat 6% |
| VA-1 | 1 | Democrat | 51% | 51% | Republican 49% |
| VA-2 | 1 | Democrat | 73% | 74% | Republican 26% |
| VA-3 | safe | Democrat | > 99% | > 99% | — |
| VA-4 | 1 | Democrat | > 99% | 99% | Republican 1% |
| VA-5 | 1 | Republican | 55% | 56% | Democrat 44% |
| VA-6 | 1 | Republican | 86% | 85% | Democrat 15% |
| VA-7 | 1 | Democrat | 86% | 86% | Republican 14% |
| VA-8 | safe | Democrat | > 99% | > 99% | — |
| VA-9 | 1 | Republican | > 99% | 99% | Democrat 1% |
| VA-10 | 1 | Democrat | 89% | 88% | Republican 12% |
| VA-11 | 1 | Democrat | > 99% | > 99% | — |
| VT-AL | safe | Democrat | > 99% | > 99% | — |
| WA-1 | 1 | Democrat | > 99% | 99% | Republican 1% |
| WA-2 | 1 | Democrat | > 99% | > 99% | Republican < 1% |
| WA-3 | 1 | Democrat | 86% | 84% | Republican 16% |
| WA-4 | 1 | Republican | 99% | 98% | Democrat 2% |
| WA-5 | 1 | Republican | 74% | 74% | Democrat 26% |
| WA-6 | 1 | Democrat | 96% | 94% | Republican 6% |
| WA-7 | safe | Democrat | > 99% | > 99% | — |
| WA-8 | 1 | Democrat | 92% | 92% | Republican 8% |
| WA-9 | safe | Democrat | > 99% | > 99% | — |
| WA-10 | 1 | Democrat | 98% | 98% | Republican 2% |
| WI-1 | 1 | Democrat | 54% | 55% | Republican 45% |
| WI-2 | safe | Democrat | > 99% | > 99% | — |
| WI-3 | 1 | Democrat | 74% | 73% | Republican 27% |
| WI-4 | safe | Democrat | > 99% | > 99% | — |
| WI-5 | 1 | Republican | 89% | 87% | Democrat 13% |
| WI-6 | 1 | Republican | 78% | 77% | Democrat 23% |
| WI-7 | 1 | Republican | 86% | 84% | Democrat 16% |
| WI-8 | 1 | Republican | 58% | 60% | Democrat 40% |
| WV-1 | 1 | Republican | 98% | 98% | Democrat 2% |
| WV-2 | 1 | Republican | 98% | 98% | Democrat 2% |
| WY-AL | 1 | Republican | > 99% | > 99% | — |
What this shows, and what it does not
- It shows that a real quantum computer can already draw an entire American election, district by district, and how much its noise distorts it: a qubit that flips hands a race to the less likely party.
- Readout-error correction, calibrated by IBM for every qubit, removes a good share of that gap.
- It does not make the forecast more accurate: Orbit already computes the same distribution exactly, on an ordinary computer. It is an experiment, published with its IBM job IDs.
IBM jobs: dbjuvnd6p51s73clkj4g · dbjuvu9ffo6c73bafv60 · dbjv09hkdqps7391e1ig · dbjv0ipkdqps7391e22g · dbjv0oonceqs73akrmo0 · dbjv1456p51s73clkld0
All 435 districts: Harfang des neiges, Orbit and the blend
For each district, the favourite and its chance of winning according to our main forecast (Harfang des neiges), according to Orbit, and according to the 50/50 blend, which averages the two chances. The two models pick the same favourite in 423 of 435 districts. The other 12 are flagged.
| District | Harfang des neiges | Orbit | 50/50 blend |
|---|---|---|---|
| AK-ALsplit | Republican 95% | Democrat 78% | Republican 59% |
| AL-1 | Republican > 99% | Republican 96% | Republican 98% |
| AL-2 | Republican 64% | Republican 57% | Republican 61% |
| AL-3 | Republican > 99% | Republican > 99% | Republican > 99% |
| AL-4 | Republican > 99% | Republican > 99% | Republican > 99% |
| AL-5 | Republican 98% | Republican 90% | Republican 94% |
| AL-6 | Republican > 99% | Republican 95% | Republican 98% |
| AL-7 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat 98% | Democrat > 99% |
| AR-1 | Republican > 99% | Republican > 99% | Republican > 99% |
| AR-2 | Republican 77% | Republican 66% | Republican 72% |
| AR-3 | Republican > 99% | Republican 94% | Republican 97% |
| AR-4 | Republican > 99% | Republican > 99% | Republican > 99% |
| AZ-1 | Democrat 82% | Democrat 72% | Democrat 77% |
| AZ-2 | Democrat 54% | Democrat 58% | Democrat 56% |
| AZ-3 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% |
| AZ-4 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat 91% | Democrat 95% |
| AZ-5 | Republican 89% | Republican 73% | Republican 81% |
| AZ-6 | Democrat 82% | Democrat 74% | Democrat 78% |
| AZ-7 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% |
| AZ-8 | Republican 66% | Republican 53% | Republican 60% |
| AZ-9 | Republican > 99% | Republican 91% | Republican 95% |
| CA-1 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat 96% | Democrat 97% |
| CA-2 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% |
| CA-3 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat 95% | Democrat 97% |
| CA-4 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat 98% | Democrat 99% |
| CA-5 | Republican 96% | Republican 74% | Republican 85% |
| CA-6 | Democrat 99% | Democrat 93% | Democrat 96% |
| CA-7 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat 96% | Democrat 98% |
| CA-8 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% |
| CA-9 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat 95% | Democrat 98% |
| CA-10 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% |
| CA-11 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% |
| CA-12 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% |
| CA-13 | Democrat 97% | Democrat 80% | Democrat 89% |
| CA-14 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% |
| CA-15 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% |
| CA-16 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% |
| CA-17 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% |
| CA-18 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% |
| CA-19 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% |
| CA-20 | Republican > 99% | Republican 93% | Republican 96% |
| CA-21 | Democrat 99% | Democrat 90% | Democrat 94% |
| CA-22 | Democrat 83% | Democrat 76% | Democrat 79% |
| CA-23 | Republican 93% | Republican 71% | Republican 82% |
| CA-24 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% |
| CA-25 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat 90% | Democrat 95% |
| CA-26 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat 97% | Democrat 99% |
| CA-27 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat 94% | Democrat 96% |
| CA-28 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% |
| CA-29 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% |
| CA-30 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% |
| CA-31 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat 96% | Democrat 98% |
| CA-32 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% |
| CA-33 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat 94% | Democrat 97% |
| CA-34 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% |
| CA-35 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat 92% | Democrat 96% |
| CA-36 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% |
| CA-37 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% |
| CA-38 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat 96% | Democrat 98% |
| CA-39 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat 94% | Democrat 97% |
| CA-40 | Republican 58% | Republican 52% | Republican 55% |
| CA-41 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat 97% | Democrat 98% |
| CA-42 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat 96% | Democrat 98% |
| CA-43 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% |
| CA-44 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% |
| CA-45 | Democrat 96% | Democrat 87% | Democrat 92% |
| CA-46 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat 98% | Democrat 99% |
| CA-47 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat 94% | Democrat 97% |
| CA-48 | Democrat 91% | Democrat 86% | Democrat 88% |
| CA-49 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat 96% | Democrat 98% |
| CA-50 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat 99% | Democrat > 99% |
| CA-51 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat 98% | Democrat > 99% |
| CA-52 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat 98% | Democrat > 99% |
| CO-1 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% |
| CO-2 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% |
| CO-3 | Democrat 67% | Democrat 68% | Democrat 68% |
| CO-4 | Republican 64% | Republican 50% | Republican 57% |
| CO-5 | Republican 58% | Republican 57% | Republican 57% |
| CO-6 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat 99% | Democrat > 99% |
| CO-7 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat 97% | Democrat 98% |
| CO-8 | Democrat 81% | Democrat 78% | Democrat 80% |
| CT-1 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% |
| CT-2 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat 98% | Democrat 99% |
| CT-3 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat 99% | Democrat > 99% |
| CT-4 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% |
| CT-5 | Democrat 97% | Democrat 87% | Democrat 92% |
| DE-AL | Democrat > 99% | Democrat 97% | Democrat 99% |
| FL-1 | Republican > 99% | Republican 97% | Republican 98% |
| FL-2 | Republican 87% | Republican 67% | Republican 77% |
| FL-3 | Republican 94% | Republican 74% | Republican 84% |
| FL-4split | Republican 71% | Democrat 50% | Republican 61% |
| FL-5 | Republican 97% | Republican 76% | Republican 86% |
| FL-6 | Republican 99% | Republican 91% | Republican 95% |
| FL-7 | Republican 57% | Republican 52% | Republican 54% |
| FL-8 | Republican 85% | Republican 62% | Republican 74% |
| FL-9split | Democrat 53% | Republican 66% | Republican 57% |
| FL-10 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% |
| FL-11 | Republican 69% | Republican 60% | Republican 65% |
| FL-12 | Republican 91% | Republican 61% | Republican 76% |
| FL-13 | Republican 54% | Republican 54% | Republican 54% |
| FL-14 | Democrat 79% | Democrat 54% | Democrat 67% |
| FL-15 | Republican 90% | Republican 72% | Republican 81% |
| FL-16 | Republican 62% | Republican 56% | Republican 59% |
| FL-17 | Republican 96% | Republican 76% | Republican 86% |
| FL-18 | Republican 84% | Republican 64% | Republican 74% |
| FL-19 | Republican 98% | Republican 91% | Republican 94% |
| FL-20 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% |
| FL-21 | Republican 94% | Republican 62% | Republican 78% |
| FL-22 | Democrat 52% | Democrat 54% | Democrat 53% |
| FL-23 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat 97% | Democrat 98% |
| FL-24 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% |
| FL-25 | Democrat 64% | Democrat 61% | Democrat 62% |
| FL-26 | Republican 95% | Republican 66% | Republican 81% |
| FL-27 | Republican 83% | Republican 58% | Republican 71% |
| FL-28 | Republican 98% | Republican 84% | Republican 91% |
| GA-1 | Republican 75% | Republican 80% | Republican 78% |
| GA-2 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat 96% | Democrat 98% |
| GA-3 | Republican > 99% | Republican 93% | Republican 96% |
| GA-4 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% |
| GA-5 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% |
| GA-6 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% |
| GA-7 | Republican 96% | Republican 90% | Republican 93% |
| GA-8 | Republican > 99% | Republican 97% | Republican 98% |
| GA-9 | Republican > 99% | Republican 97% | Republican 99% |
| GA-10 | Republican 91% | Republican 84% | Republican 88% |
| GA-11 | Republican 91% | Republican 95% | Republican 93% |
| GA-12 | Republican 93% | Republican 73% | Republican 83% |
| GA-13 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% |
| GA-14 | Republican 99% | Republican 89% | Republican 94% |
| HI-1 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% |
| HI-2 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% |
| IA-1 | Democrat 89% | Democrat 80% | Democrat 84% |
| IA-2split | Democrat 59% | Republican 61% | Republican 51% |
| IA-3 | Democrat 77% | Democrat 72% | Democrat 74% |
| IA-4 | Republican > 99% | Republican 95% | Republican 97% |
| ID-1 | Republican > 99% | Republican > 99% | Republican > 99% |
| ID-2 | Republican > 99% | Republican 92% | Republican 96% |
| IL-1 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% |
| IL-2 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% |
| IL-3 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% |
| IL-4 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% |
| IL-5 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% |
| IL-6 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat 92% | Democrat 96% |
| IL-7 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% |
| IL-8 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat 97% | Democrat 98% |
| IL-9 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% |
| IL-10 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat 99% | Democrat > 99% |
| IL-11 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat 95% | Democrat 97% |
| IL-12 | Republican > 99% | Republican > 99% | Republican > 99% |
| IL-13 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat 98% | Democrat 99% |
| IL-14 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat 94% | Democrat 97% |
| IL-15 | Republican > 99% | Republican 99% | Republican > 99% |
| IL-16 | Republican 93% | Republican 99% | Republican 96% |
| IL-17 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat 93% | Democrat 96% |
| IN-1 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat 92% | Democrat 96% |
| IN-2 | Republican 99% | Republican 89% | Republican 94% |
| IN-3 | Republican > 99% | Republican 95% | Republican 97% |
| IN-4 | Republican > 99% | Republican 95% | Republican 98% |
| IN-5 | Republican 80% | Republican 70% | Republican 75% |
| IN-6 | Republican > 99% | Republican 94% | Republican 97% |
| IN-7 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% |
| IN-8 | Republican > 99% | Republican 98% | Republican 99% |
| IN-9 | Republican > 99% | Republican 93% | Republican 96% |
| KS-1 | Republican > 99% | Republican 97% | Republican 99% |
| KS-2 | Republican 84% | Republican 71% | Republican 77% |
| KS-3 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat 95% | Democrat 97% |
| KS-4 | Republican > 99% | Republican 90% | Republican 95% |
| KY-1 | Republican > 99% | Republican > 99% | Republican > 99% |
| KY-2 | Republican > 99% | Republican > 99% | Republican > 99% |
| KY-3 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% |
| KY-4 | Republican > 99% | Republican 99% | Republican > 99% |
| KY-5 | Republican > 99% | Republican 99% | Republican > 99% |
| KY-6 | Republican 51% | Republican 84% | Republican 67% |
| LA-1 | Republican > 99% | Republican 97% | Republican 99% |
| LA-2 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% |
| LA-3 | Republican > 99% | Republican 96% | Republican 98% |
| LA-4 | Republican > 99% | Republican 95% | Republican 97% |
| LA-5 | Republican > 99% | Republican 95% | Republican 97% |
| LA-6 | Republican 92% | Republican 90% | Republican 91% |
| MA-1 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% |
| MA-2 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% |
| MA-3 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% |
| MA-4 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% |
| MA-5 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% |
| MA-6 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% |
| MA-7 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% |
| MA-8 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% |
| MA-9 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat 96% | Democrat 98% |
| MD-1 | Republican 95% | Republican 78% | Republican 86% |
| MD-2 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat 98% | Democrat > 99% |
| MD-3 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% |
| MD-4 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% |
| MD-5 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% |
| MD-6 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat 90% | Democrat 95% |
| MD-7 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% |
| MD-8 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% |
| ME-1 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% |
| ME-2 | Democrat 54% | Democrat 81% | Democrat 67% |
| MI-1 | Republican 94% | Republican 76% | Republican 85% |
| MI-2 | Republican > 99% | Republican 95% | Republican 97% |
| MI-3 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat 94% | Democrat 97% |
| MI-4split | Republican 57% | Democrat 50% | Republican 54% |
| MI-5 | Republican > 99% | Republican 94% | Republican 97% |
| MI-6 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% |
| MI-7 | Democrat 77% | Democrat 71% | Democrat 74% |
| MI-8 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat 90% | Democrat 95% |
| MI-9 | Republican > 99% | Republican 97% | Republican 99% |
| MI-10 | Democrat 71% | Democrat 65% | Democrat 68% |
| MI-11 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat 98% | Democrat > 99% |
| MI-12 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% |
| MI-13 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% |
| MN-1 | Republican 71% | Republican 64% | Republican 67% |
| MN-2 | Democrat 97% | Democrat 96% | Democrat 97% |
| MN-3 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat 98% | Democrat 99% |
| MN-4 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% |
| MN-5 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% |
| MN-6 | Republican 98% | Republican 83% | Republican 90% |
| MN-7 | Republican > 99% | Republican 98% | Republican > 99% |
| MN-8 | Republican 79% | Republican 62% | Republican 70% |
| MO-1 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% |
| MO-2split | Democrat 51% | Republican 51% | Republican 50% |
| MO-3 | Republican 98% | Republican 85% | Republican 92% |
| MO-4 | Republican > 99% | Republican > 99% | Republican > 99% |
| MO-5 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% |
| MO-6 | Republican > 99% | Republican > 99% | Republican > 99% |
| MO-7 | Republican > 99% | Republican > 99% | Republican > 99% |
| MO-8 | Republican > 99% | Republican > 99% | Republican > 99% |
| MS-1 | Republican > 99% | Republican 98% | Republican 99% |
| MS-2 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% |
| MS-3 | Republican 98% | Republican 99% | Republican 99% |
| MS-4 | Republican > 99% | Republican > 99% | Republican > 99% |
| MT-1 | Democrat 54% | Democrat 61% | Democrat 58% |
| MT-2 | Republican > 99% | Republican 93% | Republican 96% |
| NC-1 | Democrat 68% | Democrat 51% | Democrat 59% |
| NC-2 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% |
| NC-3 | Republican 64% | Republican 56% | Republican 60% |
| NC-4 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% |
| NC-5 | Republican 86% | Republican 67% | Republican 76% |
| NC-6 | Republican 79% | Republican 65% | Republican 72% |
| NC-7 | Republican 80% | Republican 55% | Republican 68% |
| NC-8 | Republican 87% | Republican 71% | Republican 79% |
| NC-9 | Republican 83% | Republican 61% | Republican 72% |
| NC-10 | Republican 90% | Republican 67% | Republican 78% |
| NC-11 | Democrat 66% | Democrat 57% | Democrat 61% |
| NC-12 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% |
| NC-13 | Republican 80% | Republican 62% | Republican 71% |
| NC-14 | Republican 78% | Republican 59% | Republican 68% |
| ND-AL | Republican > 99% | Republican 99% | Republican > 99% |
| NE-1 | Republican 79% | Republican 72% | Republican 76% |
| NE-2 | Democrat 97% | Democrat 76% | Democrat 87% |
| NE-3 | Republican > 99% | Republican > 99% | Republican > 99% |
| NH-1 | Democrat 94% | Democrat 92% | Democrat 93% |
| NH-2 | Democrat 99% | Democrat 89% | Democrat 94% |
| NJ-1 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat 98% | Democrat > 99% |
| NJ-2 | Republican 87% | Republican 64% | Republican 75% |
| NJ-3 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat 93% | Democrat 96% |
| NJ-4 | Republican > 99% | Republican 96% | Republican 98% |
| NJ-5 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat 95% | Democrat 97% |
| NJ-6 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat 98% | Democrat 99% |
| NJ-7 | Democrat 74% | Democrat 67% | Democrat 71% |
| NJ-8 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% |
| NJ-9 | Democrat 99% | Democrat 88% | Democrat 93% |
| NJ-10 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% |
| NJ-11 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat 97% | Democrat 98% |
| NJ-12 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% |
| NM-1 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat 96% | Democrat 98% |
| NM-2 | Democrat 96% | Democrat 87% | Democrat 92% |
| NM-3 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat 96% | Democrat 98% |
| NV-1 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat 91% | Democrat 95% |
| NV-2 | Republican 66% | Republican 99% | Republican 82% |
| NV-3 | Democrat 98% | Democrat 85% | Democrat 91% |
| NV-4 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat 92% | Democrat 96% |
| NY-1 | Democrat 57% | Democrat 69% | Democrat 63% |
| NY-2 | Republican 71% | Republican 60% | Republican 65% |
| NY-3 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat 90% | Democrat 95% |
| NY-4 | Democrat 99% | Democrat 89% | Democrat 94% |
| NY-5 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% |
| NY-6 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% |
| NY-7 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% |
| NY-8 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% |
| NY-9 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% |
| NY-10 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% |
| NY-11 | Republican 94% | Republican 79% | Republican 87% |
| NY-12 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% |
| NY-13 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% |
| NY-14 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% |
| NY-15 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% |
| NY-16 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% |
| NY-17 | Democrat 72% | Democrat 76% | Democrat 74% |
| NY-18 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat 97% | Democrat 98% |
| NY-19 | Democrat 97% | Democrat 83% | Democrat 90% |
| NY-20 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% |
| NY-21 | Republican 78% | Republican 77% | Republican 78% |
| NY-22 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat 94% | Democrat 97% |
| NY-23 | Republican 96% | Republican 80% | Republican 88% |
| NY-24 | Republican 95% | Republican 81% | Republican 88% |
| NY-25 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat 98% | Democrat 99% |
| NY-26 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% |
| OH-1 | Democrat 83% | Democrat 74% | Democrat 79% |
| OH-2 | Republican > 99% | Republican 99% | Republican > 99% |
| OH-3 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% |
| OH-4 | Republican > 99% | Republican 99% | Republican > 99% |
| OH-5 | Republican 98% | Republican 80% | Republican 89% |
| OH-6 | Republican > 99% | Republican 95% | Republican 97% |
| OH-7split | Republican 74% | Democrat 53% | Republican 61% |
| OH-8 | Republican 79% | Republican 59% | Republican 69% |
| OH-9 | Democrat 78% | Democrat 54% | Democrat 66% |
| OH-10split | Republican 78% | Democrat 61% | Republican 59% |
| OH-11 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% |
| OH-12 | Republican > 99% | Republican 90% | Republican 95% |
| OH-13 | Democrat 98% | Democrat 86% | Democrat 92% |
| OH-14 | Republican 98% | Republican 73% | Republican 86% |
| OH-15split | Republican 57% | Democrat 55% | Republican 51% |
| OK-1 | Republican 97% | Republican 86% | Republican 91% |
| OK-2 | Republican > 99% | Republican > 99% | Republican > 99% |
| OK-3 | Republican > 99% | Republican 99% | Republican > 99% |
| OK-4 | Republican > 99% | Republican 97% | Republican 99% |
| OK-5 | Republican 92% | Republican 75% | Republican 83% |
| OR-1 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% |
| OR-2 | Republican > 99% | Republican 92% | Republican 96% |
| OR-3 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% |
| OR-4 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat 92% | Democrat 96% |
| OR-5 | Democrat 98% | Democrat 85% | Democrat 91% |
| OR-6 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat 91% | Democrat 95% |
| PA-1 | Republican 61% | Republican 52% | Republican 57% |
| PA-2 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% |
| PA-3 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% |
| PA-4 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat 98% | Democrat > 99% |
| PA-5 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% |
| PA-6 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat 96% | Democrat 98% |
| PA-7 | Democrat 85% | Democrat 78% | Democrat 81% |
| PA-8 | Democrat 80% | Democrat 77% | Democrat 79% |
| PA-9 | Republican > 99% | Republican 98% | Republican > 99% |
| PA-10 | Democrat 77% | Democrat 77% | Democrat 77% |
| PA-11 | Republican 98% | Republican 84% | Republican 91% |
| PA-12 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat 96% | Democrat 98% |
| PA-13 | Republican > 99% | Republican > 99% | Republican > 99% |
| PA-14 | Republican > 99% | Republican 94% | Republican 97% |
| PA-15 | Republican > 99% | Republican 99% | Republican > 99% |
| PA-16 | Republican 99% | Republican 86% | Republican 93% |
| PA-17 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat 92% | Democrat 96% |
| RI-1 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% |
| RI-2 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat 98% | Democrat 99% |
| SC-1 | Republican 67% | Republican 63% | Republican 65% |
| SC-2 | Republican 90% | Republican 70% | Republican 80% |
| SC-3 | Republican > 99% | Republican > 99% | Republican > 99% |
| SC-4 | Republican 95% | Republican 79% | Republican 87% |
| SC-5 | Republican 95% | Republican 86% | Republican 90% |
| SC-6 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% |
| SC-7 | Republican > 99% | Republican 90% | Republican 95% |
| SD-AL | Republican > 99% | Republican > 99% | Republican > 99% |
| TN-1 | Republican > 99% | Republican > 99% | Republican > 99% |
| TN-2 | Republican > 99% | Republican 95% | Republican 97% |
| TN-3 | Republican > 99% | Republican 96% | Republican 98% |
| TN-4 | Republican 96% | Republican 81% | Republican 89% |
| TN-5 | Republican 89% | Republican 78% | Republican 83% |
| TN-6 | Republican 97% | Republican 87% | Republican 92% |
| TN-7 | Republican 89% | Republican 74% | Republican 82% |
| TN-8 | Republican 96% | Republican 73% | Republican 85% |
| TN-9 | Republican 88% | Republican 76% | Republican 82% |
| TX-1 | Republican > 99% | Republican > 99% | Republican > 99% |
| TX-2 | Republican 91% | Republican 79% | Republican 85% |
| TX-3 | Republican 94% | Republican 81% | Republican 87% |
| TX-4 | Republican 98% | Republican 82% | Republican 90% |
| TX-5 | Republican 91% | Republican 73% | Republican 82% |
| TX-6 | Republican 96% | Republican 78% | Republican 87% |
| TX-7 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% |
| TX-8 | Republican 97% | Republican 88% | Republican 92% |
| TX-9 | Republican 83% | Republican 72% | Republican 77% |
| TX-10 | Republican 87% | Republican 76% | Republican 82% |
| TX-11 | Republican > 99% | Republican 95% | Republican 97% |
| TX-12 | Republican 98% | Republican 81% | Republican 90% |
| TX-13 | Republican > 99% | Republican > 99% | Republican > 99% |
| TX-14 | Republican 95% | Republican 81% | Republican 88% |
| TX-15split | Democrat 51% | Republican 65% | Republican 57% |
| TX-16 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat 98% | Democrat 99% |
| TX-17 | Republican 95% | Republican 76% | Republican 85% |
| TX-18 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% |
| TX-19 | Republican > 99% | Republican > 99% | Republican > 99% |
| TX-20 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% |
| TX-21 | Republican 90% | Republican 77% | Republican 83% |
| TX-22 | Republican 89% | Republican 76% | Republican 83% |
| TX-23 | Republican 60% | Republican 57% | Republican 59% |
| TX-24 | Republican 90% | Republican 61% | Republican 75% |
| TX-25 | Republican 94% | Republican 81% | Republican 87% |
| TX-26 | Republican 97% | Republican 80% | Republican 89% |
| TX-27 | Republican 93% | Republican 73% | Republican 83% |
| TX-28 | Democrat 95% | Democrat 54% | Democrat 74% |
| TX-29 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% |
| TX-30 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% |
| TX-31 | Republican 98% | Republican 77% | Republican 87% |
| TX-32 | Republican 85% | Republican 68% | Republican 77% |
| TX-33 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% |
| TX-34 | Democrat 80% | Democrat 56% | Democrat 68% |
| TX-35split | Republican 51% | Democrat 54% | Democrat 52% |
| TX-36 | Republican 97% | Republican 83% | Republican 90% |
| TX-37 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% |
| TX-38 | Republican 86% | Republican 74% | Republican 80% |
| UT-1 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% |
| UT-2 | Republican 97% | Republican 90% | Republican 94% |
| UT-3 | Republican > 99% | Republican 99% | Republican > 99% |
| UT-4 | Republican 99% | Republican 94% | Republican 96% |
| VA-1 | Republican 56% | Republican 52% | Republican 54% |
| VA-2 | Democrat 74% | Democrat 71% | Democrat 73% |
| VA-3 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% |
| VA-4 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% |
| VA-5 | Republican 71% | Republican 59% | Republican 65% |
| VA-6 | Republican > 99% | Republican 89% | Republican 94% |
| VA-7 | Democrat 98% | Democrat 85% | Democrat 91% |
| VA-8 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% |
| VA-9 | Republican > 99% | Republican > 99% | Republican > 99% |
| VA-10 | Democrat 99% | Democrat 88% | Democrat 93% |
| VA-11 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% |
| VT-AL | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% |
| WA-1 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% |
| WA-2 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% |
| WA-3 | Democrat 91% | Democrat 87% | Democrat 89% |
| WA-4 | Republican 87% | Republican 99% | Republican 93% |
| WA-5 | Republican 93% | Republican 75% | Republican 84% |
| WA-6 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat 96% | Democrat 98% |
| WA-7 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% |
| WA-8 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat 92% | Democrat 96% |
| WA-9 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% |
| WA-10 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat 98% | Democrat 99% |
| WI-1split | Republican 51% | Democrat 54% | Democrat 52% |
| WI-2 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% |
| WI-3 | Democrat 81% | Democrat 74% | Democrat 78% |
| WI-4 | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% | Democrat > 99% |
| WI-5 | Republican > 99% | Republican 89% | Republican 94% |
| WI-6 | Republican 96% | Republican 78% | Republican 87% |
| WI-7 | Republican 95% | Republican 86% | Republican 90% |
| WI-8 | Republican 74% | Republican 58% | Republican 66% |
| WV-1 | Republican > 99% | Republican 99% | Republican > 99% |
| WV-2 | Republican > 99% | Republican 99% | Republican > 99% |
| WY-AL | Republican > 99% | Republican > 99% | Republican > 99% |
The closest races according to Orbit
| Race | Polls | Democratic chances · Orbit (quantum) | Democratic chances · Harfang (classical) |
|---|---|---|---|
| MI-4 | 0 | 50% | 43% |
| FL-4 | 0 | 50% | 29% |
| CO-4 | 0 | 50% | 36% |
| MO-2 | 0 | 49% | 51% |
| NC-1 | 0 | 51% | 68% |
| FL-7 | 0 | 48% | 43% |
| CA-40 | 0 | 48% | 42% |
| PA-1 | 0 | 48% | 39% |
| VA-1 | 0 | 48% | 44% |
| AZ-8 | 0 | 47% | 34% |
| OH-7 | 0 | 53% | 26% |
| TX-28 | 0 | 54% | 95% |
| OH-9 | 0 | 54% | 78% |
| FL-22 | 0 | 54% | 52% |
| WI-1 | 0 | 54% | 49% |
| FL-13 | 0 | 46% | 46% |
| TX-35 | 0 | 54% | 49% |
| FL-14 | 0 | 54% | 79% |
| OH-15 | 0 | 55% | 43% |
| NC-7 | 0 | 45% | 20% |
| NC-3 | 0 | 44% | 36% |
| TX-34 | 0 | 56% | 80% |
| FL-16 | 0 | 44% | 38% |
| CO-5 | 0 | 43% | 42% |
| NC-11 | 0 | 57% | 66% |
Where the two engines disagree
- AK-AL Orbit (quantum): D 78% Harfang (classical): D 5%
- FL-4 Orbit (quantum): D 50% Harfang (classical): D 29%
- FL-9 Orbit (quantum): D 34% Harfang (classical): D 53%
- IA-2 Orbit (quantum): D 39% Harfang (classical): D 59%
- MI-4 Orbit (quantum): D 50% Harfang (classical): D 43%
- MO-2 Orbit (quantum): D 49% Harfang (classical): D 51%
- OH-7 Orbit (quantum): D 53% Harfang (classical): D 26%
- OH-10 Orbit (quantum): D 61% Harfang (classical): D 22%
- OH-15 Orbit (quantum): D 55% Harfang (classical): D 43%
- TX-15 Orbit (quantum): D 35% Harfang (classical): D 51%
- TX-35 Orbit (quantum): D 54% Harfang (classical): D 49%
- WI-1 Orbit (quantum): D 54% Harfang (classical): D 49%
No past U.S. election has been replayed in Orbit yet: these numbers have no accuracy record.
Orbit’s instruments
Voters who switched sides since the last election
7.2 at least, in points of the electorateCone of possibilities until election day
± 0.6 points of maximum movement for a party at 50%Days to election
1 November 3, 2026How Orbit works, in three ideas
Opinion travels on a sphere
A 2-point gain does not mean the same thing for a party at 5% and a party at 40%. By placing opinion on a curved sphere, Orbit knows this by instinct, and it carries the national swing to each riding the way you carry an arrow across a globe.
Polls are measurements
As in quantum physics, each poll is a measurement of a hidden state: the electorate. Orbit tracks that state day after day, erases each pollster’s own lean and lets no one dictate the average alone.
Qubits instead of dice
Each riding becomes a small quantum register. Instead of rolling dice 50,000 times, Orbit counts the seats exactly, in seconds. A real quantum circuit gives the same answer, to the billionth.