Riding profile

IL-12

US House district — IL · Mixed · us il

The question

IL-12: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
37.2
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 68.6%

    Michael Bost incumbent

  • Democrat 31.4%

    Julie Fortier

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereIL-12 68.6%31.4%
National averageUnited States 44.9% +23.7 54.3% −22.9

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

IL-12, a mixed riding in IL, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 48-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 69% vote share, against 31% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

BOST, MICHAEL

Sits with Republican

Primary race

Primary results

Held Mar 17, 2026 · Official count — not yet certified

Democratic primary

Winner

JULIE FORTIER 100.0%

26,791 votes

Republican primary

Winner

MIKE BOST 100.0%

81,400 votes

Official source →

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Bost, Michael

  • Democrat Challenger

    Fortier, Julie Dr.

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
48.4 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-11.2 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026