Illinois’s 16th District
U.S. House · IL-16
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Republicans a 92% chance of winning, with an average lead of 12.3 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 17%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 99% chance (92% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Republican | 92% |
| Orbit | Republican | 99% |
| 50/50 blend | Republican | 96% |
Compared with the average
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| IL-16 | 55.8% | 44.2% |
| National averageUnited States | 43.9%+12.0 | 54.9%−10.7 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Latino citizens aged 18 and over | 5.2% (± 0.2) |
|---|
Current member
DARIN LaHOOD · Republican
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Paul Nolley | 100.0% | 38,665 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | DARIN LaHOOD | 99.8% | 52,914 votes |
Republican 
Democrat Previous election (2024)
The Republicans won by 99.9 points.
Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 12.3 points.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated