Riding profile

IL-16

US House district — IL · Mixed · us il

The question

IL-16: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
87.4
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 93.7%

    Darin McKay Lahood incumbent

  • Democrat 6.3%

    Paul Nolley

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereIL-16 93.7%6.3%
National averageUnited States 44.9% +48.8 54.3% −48.0

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

IL-16, a mixed riding in IL, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 100-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 94% vote share, against 6% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

LAHOOD, DARIN MCKAY

Sits with Republican

Primary race

Primary results

Held Mar 17, 2026 · Official count — not yet certified

Democratic primary

Winner

PAUL NOLLEY 100.0%

38,665 votes

Republican primary

Winner

DARIN LaHOOD 99.8%

52,914 votes

Official source →

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Lahood, Darin Mckay

  • Democrat Challenger

    Nolley, Paul

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
99.9 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-12.5 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026