Winner
ERIC SORENSEN 100.0%
Riding profile
IL-17
The question
IL-17: a safe seat for the Democrats?
Current forecast
Democrat
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 20.8
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Democrat | Republican | |
|---|---|---|
| HereIL-17 | 60.4% | 39.6% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.3% +6.1 | 44.9% −5.3 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
IL-17, a mixed riding in IL, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 9-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 60% vote share, against 40% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
SORENSEN, ERIC
Sits with Democrat
Primary race
Primary results
Held Mar 17, 2026 · Official count — not yet certified
Winner
DILLAN S. VANCIL 58.4%
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
- Democrat Incumbent
Sorensen, Eric
-
Republican Challenger Vancil, Dillan
Previous election · 2024
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026