Riding profile

IL-8

US House district — IL · Mixed · us il

The question

IL-8: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
24.1
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 62.0%

    Melissa Luburich Bean

  • Republican 38.0%

    Jennifer Davis

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican
HereIL-8 62.0%38.0%
National averageUnited States 54.3% +7.7 44.9% −7.0

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

IL-8, a mixed riding in IL, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 14-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 62% vote share, against 38% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

KRISHNAMOORTHI, S. RAJA

Sits with Democrat

Primary race

Primary results

Held Mar 17, 2026 · Official count — not yet certified

Democratic primary

Winner

MELISSA L. BEAN 31.6%

22,279 votes

Republican primary

Winner

JENNIFER DAVIS 51.4%

14,635 votes

Official source →

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Open seat

    Bean, Melissa Luburich

  • Republican Open seat

    Davis, Jennifer

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
14.1 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+10.0 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026